350zCommtech's Account Talk

[350zCommTech]

Nice day in the F fund. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

View attachment 5699

 

[tsptalk]

Nice day in the F fund. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

Nice call. I'm with you on this one, although your timing was a lot better.

 

[ATCJeff]

Nice day in the F fund. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

Nice call. I'm with you on this one, although your timing was a lot better.

Hey don't forget me! I like the F fund.....

 

[tsptalk]

Hey don't forget me! I like the F fund.....

It looks like there are 10 of us, plus the Business Cycle allocation (Biz_cycle), on the tracker who are 100% F today.

 

[ATCJeff]

Nice day in the F fund. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

350 any estimate on the F fund today?

 

[350zCommTech]

Nice call. I'm with you on this one, although your timing was a lot better.

Hey don't forget me! I like the F fund.....

Guys, don't fall in love with the upside. I would certainly expect a bounce in yields around the 50dma as the PPT will try to stick save the markets at critical levels.

Thanks to our limited IFTs, I'm going to have to sit through some pain in the F fund as I don't want to waste my last IFT going to stocks too early or going to the G.

BS stimulus out of the way.
Big bad bank plan 2.0 out of the way.

350 any estimate on the F fund today?

I think +8 cents.

 

[ATCJeff]

Thanks to our limited IFTs, I'm going to have to sit through some pain in the F fund as I don't want to waste my last IFT going to stocks too early or going to the G.

Were in the same boat. However, if we make 1.5% in the F fund, that will open the door to the G fund. This time will be very hard to pick the bottom of this downturn. I feel we will probably break the 800 range not bounce. If that happens, I'm not sure the Nov lows will hold so it will be pointless to sit in the F fund after the 50DMA. I'm hoping the ride up is slow and steady!

 

[ATCJeff]

I think +8 cents.

sweet

 

[350zCommTech]

Were in the same boat. However, if we make 1.5% in the F fund, that will open the door to the G fund. This time will be very hard to pick the bottom of this downturn. I feel we will probably break the 800 range not bounce. If that happens, I'm not sure the Nov lows will hold so it will be pointless to sit in the F fund after the 50DMA. I'm hoping the ride up is slow and steady!

What if TNX hits the 50dma tomorrow or sometime this week? Which would yield around 1.5% gain in addition to todays gain. Would you go to G this early?

I don't think the 50 will hold, but it will probably only yield another 1.5% gain below that. Which is still a lot better than being in G. But than again, there's also the possibility of a bond market crash.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks to our limited IFTs, I'm going to have to sit through some pain in the F fund as I don't want to waste my last IFT going to stocks too early or going to the G.

I think +8 cents.

I'd say that's an excellent plan. Last week a psychiatrist (who highly regards my feel for the Markets) fled stocks and to F Fund.

I was a little off in my prediction but I assured him there was absolutely NO WAY possible a rally could hold - and a huge dive would have to follow.

So he's on top of the world today.

This time will be very hard to pick the bottom of this downturn.

Totally agree with that - the past few months have been ridiculous other than the mild down turn (8%) and then going no where for what felt like forever.

THIS TIME we may finally experience the floor crashing through and actually hitting new lows.

I feel we will probably break the 800 range not bounce. If that happens, I'm not sure the Nov lows will hold so it will be pointless to sit in the F fund after the 50DMA.

If we have a Beautiful Dive tomorrow - then I'll go in fully. If the SPX hits 750 or near that range then I'd say we can definately count on a good 2 day bounce. NOT BECAUSE anything about the economy supports that - but simply because enough buyers will jump in.

I'm hoping the ride up is slow and steady!

Well 1.5% is pretty decent - especially if F does well tomorrow. But you can always move to G.

GL you guys - and nice pick.

BTW - if I was in your place - this is where I like to go home and say did you see the devastation that hit the Markets - I mean they really got burned (and then when my wife shakes her head like wow it's terrible) - Then you can stress how YOU MADE MONEY!!

 

[Prozium]

$35B between 10 and 30 yr auctions in the next two days.

Could not look pretty for yields.

 

[350zCommTech]

Well 1.5% is pretty decent - especially if F does well tomorrow. But you can always move to G.

GL you guys - and nice pick.

BTW - if I was in your place - this is where I like to go home and say did you see the devastation that hit the Markets - I mean they really got burned (and then when my wife shakes her head like wow it's terrible) - Then you can stress how YOU MADE MONEY!!

Thanks Steady.

 

[350zCommTech]

$35B between 10 and 30 yr auctions in the next two days.

Could not look pretty for yields.

Supply vs. depression.

 

[ATCJeff]

What if TNX hits the 50dma tomorrow or sometime this week? Which would yield around 1.5% gain in addition to todays gain. Would you go to G this early?

I don't think the 50 will hold, but it will probably only yield another 1.5% gain below that. Which is still a lot better than being in G. But than again, there's also the possibility of a bond market crash.

Yes. I'll take my 2.25% and run to the G!

 

[ATCJeff]

BTW - if I was in your place - this is where I like to go home and say did you see the devastation that hit the Markets - I mean they really got burned (and then when my wife shakes her head like wow it's terrible) - Then you can stress how YOU MADE MONEY!!

I don't need brownie points. All it takes is for me to look into her eyes and she's all mine!

 

[350zCommTech]

A warning from China.

China Needs U.S. Guarantees for Treasury Bond Holdings, Yu Says

By Belinda Cao and Judy Chen

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China should seek guarantees that its $682 billion holdings of U.S. government debt won’t be eroded by “reckless policies,” said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the central bank.

The U.S. “should make the Chinese feel confident that the value of the assets at least will not be eroded in a significant way,” Yu, who now heads the World Economics and Politics Institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in response to e-mailed questions yesterday from Beijing. He declined to elaborate on the assurances needed by China, the biggest foreign holder of U.S. government debt.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed above 3 percent this week on speculation the government will increase borrowing as President Barack Obama pushes his $838 billion stimulus package through Congress. Premier Wen Jiabao said last month his government’s strategy for investing would focus on safeguarding the value of China’s $1.95 trillion foreign reserves.

China may voice its concerns over U.S. government finances and the potential for a weaker dollar when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits China on Feb. 20, according to He Zhicheng, an economist at Agricultural Bank of China, the nation’s third-largest lender by assets.

“In talks with Clinton, China will ask for a guarantee that the U.S. will support the dollar’s exchange rate and make sure China’s dollar-denominated assets are safe,” said He in Beijing. “That would be one of the prerequisites for more purchases.”
Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Jiang Yu said yesterday that talks with Clinton would cover bilateral relations, the financial crisis and international affairs, according the Xinhua news agency.

Treasury Returns
U.S. government bonds returned 14 percent last year including price gains and reinvested interest, the most since rallying 18.5 percent in 1995, according to indexes compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. Concern that the flood of bonds would overwhelm demand caused Treasuries to lose 3.08 percent in January, the steepest drop in almost five years, Merrill data show. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen to 2.83 percent from 2.21 percent at the end of last year.

China’s loss of more than $5 billion from investing $10.5 billion of its reserves in New York-based Blackstone Group LP, Morgan Stanley and TPG Inc. since mid-2007 may increase its demand for the relative safety of Treasuries.

“The government will be a net buyer of Treasuries in the short-term because there’s no sign they have changed their strategy,” said Zhang Ming, secretary general of international finance research center at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. “But personally, I don’t think we should increase holdings because the medium- and long-term risks are quite high.”

Currency Reserves
China’s foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s biggest, grew about $40 billion in the fourth quarter, the smallest expansion since mid-2004 as an end to yuan appreciation since July prompted investors to pull money out.

The world’s third-biggest economy grew 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace in seven years. Policy makers cut interest rates by the most in 11 years and announced a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus plan in November to spur domestic demand.

Yu said China won’t channel its reserves toward stimulating the economy because its trade surplus is sufficient to fund any import needs. China’s trade surplus was $39 billion in December, the second-largest on record.

A decline in reserves “isn’t likely because of China’s huge twin surpluses,” Yu said. China “should diversify its reserves away from U.S. Treasuries if the value of China’s foreign- exchange reserves is in danger of being inflated away by the U.S. government’s pump-priming,” he said.

Linking Disputes
China may try to link trade and currency policy disputes to its future investment in Treasuries, said Lu Zhengwei, an economist in Shanghai at Industrial Bank Co., a Chinese lender partly owned by a unit of HSBC Holdings Plc.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner accused China on Jan. 22 of “manipulating” the yuan to give an unfair advantage to its exporters in the global market. The currency has dropped 0.14 percent since the start of this year to 6.8326 per dollar, following a 21 percent gain since a peg against the dollar was abandoned in July 2005.

“China can also use this opportunity to get a promise from the U.S. not to make inappropriate requests on bilateral trade and the Chinese yuan,” Lu said. “We can’t afford more yuan appreciation as the economy is facing a serious slowdown.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Belinda Cao in Beijing at lcao4@bloomberg.net; Judy Chen in Shanghai at xchen45@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: February 10, 2009 15:52 EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_dsDz145J_A&refer=home

 

[350zCommTech]

Bond yields down nicely despite a green open in stocks. The smell of currency interventions is in the air. Lets see if the PPT can pull this off. My money is on the bond market.

 

[JTH]

Bond yields down nicely despite a green open in stocks. The smell of currency interventions is in the air. Lets see if the PPT can pull this off. My money is on the bond market.

So's mine

 

[350zCommTech]

I guess they got what they wanted. Talking nice about US treasuries.

Good for the F fund.

China Bank Regulator: No Real Alternative To Treasurys

FEBRUARY 11, 2009, 10:13 A.M. ET
By Michael S. Derby
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A top Chinese bank regulator said Wednesday there are few real alternatives to holding U.S. Treasury securities.
"Except for U.S. Treasurys what else can you hold?" said Luo Ping, director general of the China Banking Regulatory Commission. He added that U.S. government debt "is the safe haven for investment."
Ping did add that it can be uncomfortable at times to hold Treasurys, especially in times of rising debt issuance that affects the value of the dollar and pushes yields higher
The U.S. government is ramping up its debt issuance massively as it seeks to finance its efforts to stimulate the economy. The amount of supply is such that some are worried that there won't be enough buyers. Many of those worries center on what China, a huge buyer of Treasurys, will do.
Ping also said he was "shocked" at the number of bank failures that have occurred in the U.S. during the financial crisis. He was referring to the implosion of investment banks Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ), along with interventions into the government-sponsored mortgage lenders and insurance giant American International Group Inc. (AIG).
Ping spoke at an event in New York held by the Global Association of Risk Professionals.
Ping also said that "we are deeply affected" by events in the U.S., and he flagged the relationship between the two nations by saying "no country is an island by itself, so the idea of decoupling does not apply at all."
The banking official said there is a broad reconsideration going on about the merits of unfettered free markets, and he said he believed deregulation of the financial system had likely gone too far.
Ping added that ideas of government involvement in banks are evolving, saying "perhaps banking is not so much different than a public utility," and it may be the case that a strong government role in the direction and control of the financial system is a good thing.
The official also expressed skepticism about the securitization process at the center of the financial troubles, and said there are good reasons to keep commercial and investment banking separate.


-By Michael S. Derby, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4192; michael.derby@dowjones.comhttp://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090211-708529.html

 

[alevin]

sounds to me like China is hinting that Glass-Steagall should be reinstituted. Good idea!