ATCJeff
Well-known member
Unfreakin' believable...the selloff came well after the bond market closed. That means a limited gain in the F fund.
Maybe they will give us a FV...
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
350zCommtech's Account Talk
- Thread starter 350zCommTech
- Start date
Maybe they will give us a FV...
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Maybe they will give us a FV...
I think they will, but you won't be around to give it back, you thief.
poolman
Top Return 2008
I think they will, but you won't be around to give it back, you thief.
LMAO...
Me too...
poolman
Top Return 2008
Yeah, up or down, I'll still be ahead in the F fund, since I got in at an 11 month low.
Looks you might have gotten in at the market low. Where do you get your crystal ball?
I have not a crystal ball. I wish I did. I missed the 7% rally yesterday.
I'm very happy with my move today. We should both be in the money, but exiting on different day's. We will be talking mumbo jumbo to some.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Maybe they will give us a FV...
We got 1.2 cent. We got screwed. I calculated 3-4 cents.
The only explanation is perhaps there was a FV yesterday, and today was a correction. The F fund probably should have lost more than 8 cents yesterday because bond yields were up around .0145. Today, bond yields dropped .068, or 50% retracement.
If the market had been at the lows of the day right before 3:00pm est., the F fund would probably be up 5-6 cents.
ATCJeff
Well-known member
We got 1.2 cent. We got screwed. I calculated 3-4 cents.
The only explanation is perhaps there was a FV yesterday, and today was a correction. The F fund probably should have lost more than 8 cents yesterday because bond yields were up around .0145. Today, bond yields dropped .068, or 50% retracement.
If the market had been at the lows of the day right before 3:00pm est., the F fund would probably be up 5-6 cents.
Oh well. Still made out better than being all G since my last IFT. What can we do....
350zCommTech
Well-known member
ATCJeff
Well-known member
You really think the dollar will break to the downside? If so, that could be the final nail in the coffin for the US economy. Just what we need, oil over a $100 again!
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Not for the long term. Just a minor correction in this uptrend. Once it breaks, my target is around 83.
I wouldn't worry about $100. The world wide recession is going to keep oil down for a while.
Since Ben started cutting rates hot and heavy, the dollar has become a carry trade similar to the Yen. World wide liquidation of various markets and sentiment about Europe's economy has caused the dollar to rise drastically.
Looking at various charts, I believe the markets are getting close to putting in a temporary bottom. The dollar chart above suggest a potential double top or a bull flag. If it breaks up north out of the bull flag, then I am wrong and we'll be looking at S&P 700 or lower. But if it breaks down and confirms a double top, then we'll have another bear market rally, perhaps ending when the dollar gets near 83.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Why would a falling dollar result in a bear rally in stocks? Won't it make commodity prices go higher?
Similarly, what is bad about a high dollar...it keeps oil and materials low?
350zCommTech
Well-known member
airlift said:
The statement below:
I guess I should have also added that as sentiment reverses(enough people think the bottom is in), the reverse of the above happens(trades are put back on using borrowed dollars and Yens), causing the dollar to fall. Folks, I am not making this up. The charts don't lie. Many articles on the Web confirms my observation and theory. Ask yourself this: The recent rise in the dollar and the Yen has down what to the Dow and the Nikkei, in the past month?
The recession will keep commodity prices in control. I'm not saying anything good or bad about the dollar.
Uptrend
Well-known member
I hve noticed for about a week now that the dollar was due for a pullback. That is one reason I went 40% I on my IFT last Friday to be active on Nov 17. The market can go up when the dollar goes up, down when the dollar goes down, up when the dollar goes down and down when the dollar goes up. I believe there a numerous factors. During October, the market was subject to rapid deflation which was positive for the dollar. Now as the market stabilizes, and the Fed pumps in billions of dollars inflation will pick up (or the perception that it will even before it happens) and the dollar should pull back. I think the 20 dma is the first target.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Yes, and being that it's only 1% away, a closed below that could happen in one day. I just hope that it doesn't happen until I get in.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I'll just venture a guess that the dollar stays relatively strong for a while longer, perhaps longer than most would think. It already has...and the chart looks like sideways consolidation to me...
350zCommTech
Well-known member
You might be right. Perhaps a diversified strategy such as 25S/25C/50I would be a smarter choice.
Btw, I just watched Oscar's weekend video. That picture on the front page of the WSJ scared the crap out of me. I hope he's wrong.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
100% I fund.:worried:
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Good luck! I'm 100C and going for it. How can news get any worse? The only thing that could make the market go way down further is if FEARS are realized...but even things such as GM going bankrupt won't happen for months I assume. Bond market is holding up and so is the dollar so great depression is not happening yet.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Thanks CP,
As for today, it's not looking good. Bonds are strong as you said, and I see a potential head and shoulder on the USD/YEN. If that breaks, we will test 850 again.
Good luck to you too.
Minnow
Well-known member
balls! --- me? 50%c 25%s 25%i COB today. Good luck to you!!
