350zCommtech's Account Talk

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The earned income tax credit group could volunteer some of their unearned income back to their uncle - not likely though. Watch for an increase in the desire to take more unpaid time off. The less you work the more you get but you have to have children.
 
poolman said:
Very Hard to say 350Z.

I think if the market's end at these levels today, then

Look out below, which should be good for you. :D

S&P trying to hold at the 870 level.
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I hope you're right. If TNX breaks down through that wedge, the markets will make a new low.

If not for the trading restrictions, I probably would have gotten out of the F fund today. I can see a bounce in the markets tomorrow.
 
350zCommTech said:
I can see a bounce in the markets tomorrow.
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I agree but... your thoughts on the 24th being a day to circle on your calendar might seem more solid. It might only be a one-day play but it might have the potential to be bigger than tomorrow's up day. Not only is it a Japanese holiday but the preceding friday is basically a no-news friday so, that could be a shakeout day. Just thoughts... gotta make money where you can. :cool:
 
Minnow said:
I agree but... your thoughts on the 24th being a day to circle on your calendar might seem more solid. It might only be a one-day play but it might have the potential to be bigger than tomorrow's up day. Not only is it a Japanese holiday but the preceding friday is basically a no-news friday so, that could be a shakeout day. Just thoughts... gotta make money where you can. :cool:
Click to expand...

I agree Minnow, We could have an up day tomorrow but I'm looking for the 5% up day. Tomorrow I believe could be a pop or headfake. Possibly a 2 to 3 percent day. We will see.

Today is a Big part of where we go tomorrow.

I'm off work today and tomorrow, then back again on Friday. Swimming pool buisness is taking a Hit also. I'm behing on hours with my contract this year. :(
 
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Minnow said:
I agree but... your thoughts on the 24th being a day to circle on your calendar might seem more solid. It might only be a one-day play but it might have the potential to be bigger than tomorrow's up day. Not only is it a Japanese holiday but the preceding friday is basically a no-news friday so, that could be a shakeout day. Just thoughts... gotta make money where you can. :cool:
Click to expand...


I originally wrote dead cat bounce for tomorrow, but change it.

I actually think the whole week of the 24th could be good.:D
 
I would defer to you guys when it comes to the currency and bond markets. I do believe Hessian or Corepuncher has alluded at least twice that bond redemptions were at the end of this week. Think that's a good reason to bail from the F?

I'm just thinking out loud and making no predictions but Friday the 21st looks like the shakeout day and the 24th looks like the beginning of possibly a few up days in a row but I wouldn't count on it being more than just a couple of days (I guess it depends on the size of the move up, huh?). I know the crystal balls don't always work but based on previous "illogical" moves by the market, this seems just as illogically logical given how they've operated recently --- even I am embarrassed I just wrote that.
 
poolman said:
Today is a Big part of where we go tomorrow.

I'm off work today and tomorrow, then back again on Friday. Swimming pool buisness is taking a Hit also. I'm behing on hours with my contract this year. :(
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Sorry to hear about your business.

Paulson just announce that he will extend the TARP to non-banks. I wonder if it's too late for LNT to get some of that money so they can stay in business.

The bounce off of 865 was on very little volume. I think we go lower this afternoon.
 
Minnow said:
I would defer to you guys when it comes to the currency and bond markets. I do believe Hessian or Corepuncher has alluded at least twice that bond redemptions were at the end of this week. Think that's a good reason to bail from the F?

I'm just thinking out loud and making no predictions but Friday the 21st looks like the shakeout day and the 24th looks like the beginning of possibly a few up days in a row but I wouldn't count on it being more than just a couple of days (I guess it depends on the size of the move up, huh?). I know the crystal balls don't always work but based on previous "illogical" moves by the market, this seems just as illogically logical given how they've operated recently --- even I am embarrassed I just wrote that.
Click to expand...

He was talking about the hedge fund redemption deadline this Friday. They could liquidate anything, ie. stocks, bonds, currencies, etc.. I would assume that they are already done with that.

For the market to find a bottom and bounce big like it did late Oct., the USD/YEN might have to be near 90-91. To be honest, I'm not too sure about that. 90-91 is the proverbial line in the sand for the BOJ. They succeeded in Oct, but will they be able to do it again? If not, it might go to 80, which would be an OMG moment.
 
350zCommTech said:
He was talking about the hedge fund redemption deadline this Friday. They could liquidate anything, ie. stocks, bonds, currencies, etc.. I would assume that they are already done with that.

For the market to find a bottom and bounce big like it did late Oct., the USD/YEN might have to be near 90-91. To be honest, I'm not too sure about that. 90-91 is the proverbial line in the sand for the BOJ. They succeeded in Oct, but will they be able to do it again? If not, it might go to 80, which would be an OMG moment.
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Bite your tongue..... I'm still DCAing out some 100 buys. The Yen needs to hold....If we see 80...yes OMG!!!!:blink:
 
Frixxxx said:
Bite your tongue..... I'm still DCAing out some 100 buys. The Yen needs to hold....If we see 80...yes OMG!!!!:blink:
Click to expand...

Don't tell me you didn't see this article...

Friday, Nov. 7, 2008

BOJ may be unable to halt yen's rising tide: traders

By RON HARUI and STANLEY WHITE
Bloomberg

The Bank of Japan may be powerless to prevent the yen from rising to a 13-year high, according to the world's biggest foreign-exchange traders.

Deutsche Bank
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AG, UBS AG and Barclays PLC predict the yen will recover from its steepest weekly decline since 1999 as investors reduce carry trades that fund purchases of higher-yielding assets by borrowing in Japan. The currency will appreciate to ¥90 per dollar from ¥98.02 Thursday in Tokyo even if the BOJ intervenes to stem the biggest annual gain since 1998, they said.
"Once the market realizes that we're now in a global recession, there's further deleveraging to come," said Geoff Kendrick, a senior currency strategist in London at UBS, the second-biggest trader in the $3.2 trillion-a-day market. Traders "are capitulating" after five years of bets against the yen, he said in a Nov. 4 interview.

The currency's 14 percent gain against the dollar this year and 29 percent advance versus the euro prompted the government to announce last month it may buy or sell currencies to influence exchange rates,
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as the world's second-largest economy stumbled. Gross domestic product shrank by an annualized 3 percent in the second quarter as exports dropped 2.5 percent, according to government data.

Canon Inc., the world's largest camera maker, blamed the yen's rally when the Tokyo-based company cut its forecasts to the first profit decline in nine years last month. Sony Corp., the second-largest maker of consumer electronics, said net income fell 72 percent in the quarter that ended Sept. 30. Tokyo-based Sony gets 77 percent of its revenue outside Japan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The yen's real effective exchange rate, a measure of its value against 15 of Japan's trading partners, rose 11.2 percent in October, the biggest gain since the BOJ started the index in 1970.

Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said last month that Japan was prepared to restrain the yen, which would be the first time the government would buy or sell currencies to influence exchange rates in four years. The BOJ, which trades on behalf of the Finance Ministry, sold ¥14.8 trillion in the first quarter of 2004, when it traded as high as ¥103.42 per dollar. The currency still ended the year stronger, at ¥102.63.

"An intervention to change the yen's rising trend would be like trying to stop a tsunami with one hand tied behind your back," Toru Umemoto, chief currency analyst in Tokyo at Barclays Capital,
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said in an interview on Oct. 28. The unit of
London-based Barclays PLC is the third-largest foreign-exchange trader.

The currency pared its advance in the past eight days as global stocks rallied, reducing pressure on the government to step into the market. The yen traded at 98.02 at 9:34 a.m. in Tokyo Thursday, compared with 90.93 per dollar on Oct. 24, the strongest since 1995.

UBS forecasts the yen will rise to 90 per dollar in a month. Deutsche Bank, the largest trader, predicts that level will be reached this year, while Barclays' forecast is for six months. The banks are outliers on Wall Street, where the mean estimate for the yen is 99 at yearend, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Carry trades grew during the past five years, driving the yen to 124.13 in June 2007, as central banks increased interest rates to fight inflation while Japan kept its key rate at 0.5 percent. Investors borrowing in the yen could sell the currency and profit by buying assets in Australia, where policymakers raised benchmark borrowing costs as high as 7.25 percent in March from 4.25 percent in 2002.

The strategy lost favor as the financial crisis caused banks and financial companies to report $693 billion in losses and writedowns since the start of 2007 and curbed demand for higher-yielding assets. Slowing economies also hurt the carry trade as central banks lowered interest rates to prompt growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia slashed its rate by 2 percentage points since Sept. 2, and the BOJ cut its rate by 0.20 percentage point last week.

The dollar may drop as low as ¥80 if it penetrates the ¥90 level because Japanese investors are losing appetite for overseas investments and need to hedge bets from the past decade, wrote Masafumi Yamamoto, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC in Tokyo, in an Oct. 27 note to clients.http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20081107n2.html
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Read it and was getting ready to DCA everything to the 95 level for this week and set some shorts.

I am concerned a little but have also covered my longs. Fortunately, I was off yesterday and scalped out my coverage of my 101 buys. Amazing how much work I did yesterday just to break even.

I'll probably be up until 3 AM tomorrow morning getting my 100's out of the mix....Right now minus those my highest long is 96.50:notrust:

It's only two positions I need to see out the door, but I have a short working from 98.35 keeping me afloat. Fortunately it is a 50K lot!!!!:cool:
 
Frixxxx said:
Read it and was getting ready to DCA everything to the 95 level for this week and set some shorts.

I am concerned a little but have also covered my longs. Fortunately, I was off yesterday and scalped out my coverage of my 101 buys. Amazing how much work I did yesterday just to break even.

I'll probably be up until 3 AM tomorrow morning getting my 100's out of the mix....Right now minus those my highest long is 96.50:notrust:

It's only two positions I need to see out the door, but I have a short working from 98.35 keeping me afloat. Fortunately it is a 50K lot!!!!:cool:
Click to expand...

Good luck Frixxxx. :cool:
 
350zCommTech said:
I originally wrote dead cat bounce for tomorrow, but change it.
Click to expand...


Look at that late-hour closing pop... you should've gone with your gut and called that dead cat. Still think turkey week will be a better setup.

Speaking of the yen... don't forget they've still got some dry powder (about .3 worth:laugh:)

Good luck tonight Frixxxx!!!!
 
Minnow said:
Look at that late-hour closing pop... you should've gone with your gut and called that dead cat. Still think turkey week will be a better setup.

Speaking of the yen... don't forget they've still got some dry powder (about .3 worth:laugh:)

Good luck tonight Frixxxx!!!!
Click to expand...
Thanks Minnow,

I have to get everything in before the Trade Index announcements. Also, the "realer" numbers on unemployment numbers and Crude inventories.....


HMMM....what to thing the Dollar will do tomorrow.....Anyone got the crystal ball heated up?
 
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