Minnow
Well-known member
The dollar is losing some ground right now, so I think 95 today will be a blessing.:blink:
quote]
I sure hope you were hedged properly my friend. And don't let the pips smack you around tonight
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
350zCommtech's Account Talk
- Thread starter 350zCommTech
- Start date
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Here's the reason for the rally. Lets see how long it lasts.
[qoute]Australia Intervenes as Currency Slips; New Zealand's Declines
By Candice Zachariahs
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar slid against the yen and the U.S. currency on concern the global economy is slipping into a recession, prompting the central bank to stem declines. New Zealand's dollar also fell against the yen.
Australia's dollar and New Zealand's have plunged more than 20 percent against the yen in the past week as investors bought back Japanese currency borrowed in so-called carry trades to purchase high-yielding assets in the South Pacific nations. The Australian currency traded near record lows against the yen touched on Oct. 24.
``Investor confidence is shot to ribbons and it's the carry trades that are copping it fair and square in the face,'' said Paul Milton, chief foreign-exchange dealer at Societe Generale SA in Sydney. ``We're approaching levels where we should start finding some natural support in the Aussie. However, it's a brave man who buys Aussie in this environment,'' he said, referring to the currency by its nickname.
The Australian dollar fell 3.2 percent to 56.79 yen as of 1:03 p.m. in London from 58.68 yen in New York on Oct. 24, when it had touched 55.14 yen, the weakest since the Australian currency started trading freely. The currency slid 1.5 percent to 61.26 U.S. cents from 62.23 cents in New York last week, when it touched the lowest since April 2003.
New Zealand's dollar dropped 4.1 percent to 50.31 yen from 52.48 late last week in New York. The currency fell 2.7 percent to 54.17 U.S. cents from 55.67 cents.
RBA Intervention
Australia's dollar pared declines after the nation's central bank intervened as the currency neared its weakest level in five years against the U.S. dollar and a record low versus the yen. The Group of Seven industrialized nations are concerned about excessive moves in the yen, according to a joint statement read out by Japan's Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa today.
The central bank ``provided more liquidity to the foreign exchange market,'' a spokesman for the Sydney-based Reserve Bank of Australia said today by phone. He declined to be identified. The intervention came amid similar circumstances to those on Oct. 24 when the RBA bought Australian dollars, according to the spokesman.
The Australian dollar has tumbled 35.6 percent against the yen and 26.5 percent versus the greenback over the past month as investors have dumped equities amid widespread concern that the global economy will fall into recession. New Zealand's currency has fallen 31 percent and 21 percent against the yen and dollar, respectively.
Ready to Act
A coordinated currency intervention ``is possible, if other countries agree that the yen is too expensive, but it seems unlikely,'' said Tatsuo Ichikawa, a senior strategist in Tokyo at RBS Securities Japan Ltd., one of the 24 primary dealers required to bid at government auctions.
Japan's Nakagawa said the nation was ready to take action on the yen if needed.
``We reaffirm our shared interest in a strong and stable international financial system,'' the G-7 said. ``We are concerned about the recent excessive volatility in the exchange rate of the yen and its possible adverse implications for economic and financial stability.''
The VIX volatility index, a gauge reflecting expectations for stock-market price changes and risk aversion, reached a record of 79.13 on Friday.
The yen and the U.S. dollar rallied this month as the credit crunch shattered confidence in riskier assets such as South Korean shares and so-called carry trades.
The yen advanced this month against all of some 170 currencies tracked by Bloomberg, prompting speculation central banks may take coordinated action to drive down the yen and the dollar, after central bank policymakers cut borrowing costs together three weeks ago.
Cutting Rates
In carry trades, investors get funds in nations such as Japan that have low borrowing costs and buy assets where returns are higher. The risk is that currency moves erase the profits.
The RBA on Oct. 7 cut its benchmark interest rate by 1 percentage point, twice as much as economists had estimated, to 6 percent. That reduction, the central bank's biggest since a recession in 1992, was followed by a round of cuts two days later from central banks in Europe and the U.S.
Australia's benchmark interest rate is 6 percent, compared with 0.5 percent in Japan, 1.5 percent in the U.S. and the European Central Bank's 3.75 percent rate.
The Bank of Korea slashed interest rates today by a record 0.75 percentage point at an emergency meeting in an attempt to restore confidence after stocks lost a fifth of their value and the won fell to a decade low last week.
Governor Lee Seong Tae lowered the seven-day repurchase rate to 4.25 percent after returning from a two-day summit in Beijing that was the first meeting of Asian and European Union chiefs since calls for coordinated action mounted over the past month along with bank failures and plunging stock prices.
Sarkozy on Currencies
President George W. Bush will host a financial summit in Washington next month to address the fallout from the credit crunch. Future gatherings may also address foreign-exchange rates, according to French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who said talks about currencies may be put off until after Nov. 15.
``It is simply impossible to talk about the financial crisis without discussing currencies and the way in which they interact,'' Sarkozy said in Beijing yesterday.
South Korea last week pledged $130 billion to support lenders struggling to obtain foreign funds and said it will spend as much as 8 trillion won ($5.5 billion) to rescue builders struggling with unsold homes. The central bank said Oct. 24 it will inject 2 trillion won into the financial system through repurchase-agreement operations.
Central banks intervene in currency markets by arranging sales or purchases of foreign exchange.
To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 27, 2008 09:40 ED
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=axogpaM7xvnA&refer=australia[/quote]
[qoute]Australia Intervenes as Currency Slips; New Zealand's Declines
By Candice Zachariahs
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar slid against the yen and the U.S. currency on concern the global economy is slipping into a recession, prompting the central bank to stem declines. New Zealand's dollar also fell against the yen.
Australia's dollar and New Zealand's have plunged more than 20 percent against the yen in the past week as investors bought back Japanese currency borrowed in so-called carry trades to purchase high-yielding assets in the South Pacific nations. The Australian currency traded near record lows against the yen touched on Oct. 24.
``Investor confidence is shot to ribbons and it's the carry trades that are copping it fair and square in the face,'' said Paul Milton, chief foreign-exchange dealer at Societe Generale SA in Sydney. ``We're approaching levels where we should start finding some natural support in the Aussie. However, it's a brave man who buys Aussie in this environment,'' he said, referring to the currency by its nickname.
The Australian dollar fell 3.2 percent to 56.79 yen as of 1:03 p.m. in London from 58.68 yen in New York on Oct. 24, when it had touched 55.14 yen, the weakest since the Australian currency started trading freely. The currency slid 1.5 percent to 61.26 U.S. cents from 62.23 cents in New York last week, when it touched the lowest since April 2003.
New Zealand's dollar dropped 4.1 percent to 50.31 yen from 52.48 late last week in New York. The currency fell 2.7 percent to 54.17 U.S. cents from 55.67 cents.
RBA Intervention
Australia's dollar pared declines after the nation's central bank intervened as the currency neared its weakest level in five years against the U.S. dollar and a record low versus the yen. The Group of Seven industrialized nations are concerned about excessive moves in the yen, according to a joint statement read out by Japan's Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa today.
The central bank ``provided more liquidity to the foreign exchange market,'' a spokesman for the Sydney-based Reserve Bank of Australia said today by phone. He declined to be identified. The intervention came amid similar circumstances to those on Oct. 24 when the RBA bought Australian dollars, according to the spokesman.
The Australian dollar has tumbled 35.6 percent against the yen and 26.5 percent versus the greenback over the past month as investors have dumped equities amid widespread concern that the global economy will fall into recession. New Zealand's currency has fallen 31 percent and 21 percent against the yen and dollar, respectively.
Ready to Act
A coordinated currency intervention ``is possible, if other countries agree that the yen is too expensive, but it seems unlikely,'' said Tatsuo Ichikawa, a senior strategist in Tokyo at RBS Securities Japan Ltd., one of the 24 primary dealers required to bid at government auctions.
Japan's Nakagawa said the nation was ready to take action on the yen if needed.
``We reaffirm our shared interest in a strong and stable international financial system,'' the G-7 said. ``We are concerned about the recent excessive volatility in the exchange rate of the yen and its possible adverse implications for economic and financial stability.''
The VIX volatility index, a gauge reflecting expectations for stock-market price changes and risk aversion, reached a record of 79.13 on Friday.
The yen and the U.S. dollar rallied this month as the credit crunch shattered confidence in riskier assets such as South Korean shares and so-called carry trades.
The yen advanced this month against all of some 170 currencies tracked by Bloomberg, prompting speculation central banks may take coordinated action to drive down the yen and the dollar, after central bank policymakers cut borrowing costs together three weeks ago.
Cutting Rates
In carry trades, investors get funds in nations such as Japan that have low borrowing costs and buy assets where returns are higher. The risk is that currency moves erase the profits.
The RBA on Oct. 7 cut its benchmark interest rate by 1 percentage point, twice as much as economists had estimated, to 6 percent. That reduction, the central bank's biggest since a recession in 1992, was followed by a round of cuts two days later from central banks in Europe and the U.S.
Australia's benchmark interest rate is 6 percent, compared with 0.5 percent in Japan, 1.5 percent in the U.S. and the European Central Bank's 3.75 percent rate.
The Bank of Korea slashed interest rates today by a record 0.75 percentage point at an emergency meeting in an attempt to restore confidence after stocks lost a fifth of their value and the won fell to a decade low last week.
Governor Lee Seong Tae lowered the seven-day repurchase rate to 4.25 percent after returning from a two-day summit in Beijing that was the first meeting of Asian and European Union chiefs since calls for coordinated action mounted over the past month along with bank failures and plunging stock prices.
Sarkozy on Currencies
President George W. Bush will host a financial summit in Washington next month to address the fallout from the credit crunch. Future gatherings may also address foreign-exchange rates, according to French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who said talks about currencies may be put off until after Nov. 15.
``It is simply impossible to talk about the financial crisis without discussing currencies and the way in which they interact,'' Sarkozy said in Beijing yesterday.
South Korea last week pledged $130 billion to support lenders struggling to obtain foreign funds and said it will spend as much as 8 trillion won ($5.5 billion) to rescue builders struggling with unsold homes. The central bank said Oct. 24 it will inject 2 trillion won into the financial system through repurchase-agreement operations.
Central banks intervene in currency markets by arranging sales or purchases of foreign exchange.
To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 27, 2008 09:40 ED
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=axogpaM7xvnA&refer=australia[/quote]
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Currency intervention is still going on. Clearly visible today. When will they stop? I don't know. Lets see what happens in the last 15-30 minutes of trading.
My plan to buy back in lower in November is still looking good. If the markets were to end Oct. right now, I'll be 16% ahead of the S fund.
My plan to buy back in lower in November is still looking good. If the markets were to end Oct. right now, I'll be 16% ahead of the S fund.
Last edited:
poolman
Top Return 2008
Currency intervention is still going on. Clearly visible today. When will they stop? I don't know. Lets see what happens in the last 15-30 minutes of trading.
My plan to buy back in lower in November is still looking good. If the markets were to end Oct. right now, I'll be 16% ahead of the S fund.
I agree.
I think I can buy in lower than my last trade.
No problem so far.
Frixxxx
Moderator
Nice 350Z, You posting this almost made me cry, I've been waiting for their moves to help me close out some stale positions. AUD Rocks when you want massive movement in one day.....take your heart medicine though, it is ALWAYS a ride!!!!!!
350zCommTech
Well-known member
The Forex market is much bigger than they are. They can't keep this up for much longer. It is so obvious what they are doing, smart traders will wait for the all clear and then short the stock market with both hands and feet. All they are doing right now is sucking in the retail investors.
GDP would have been much worst if not for the government cooks.
Frixxxx
Moderator
Cooks or Crooks? oh wait I get it!!!!!:laugh:
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Wow! Take a look at your Forex charts. On mine, USD/YEN just spiked up to 117.42. I'm sure it's an error since S&P futures had no change. But, can you imaging if it was real?
Frixxxx
Moderator
Serious error, I got three different trading charts up....If it went to 112 right now, I'd turn in my two week notice......Wow! Take a look at your Forex charts. On mine, USD/YEN just spiked up to 117.42. I'm sure it's an error since S&P futures had no change. But, can you imaging if it was real?
350zCommTech
Well-known member
:laugh:Serious error, I got three different trading charts up....If it went to 112 right now, I'd turn in my two week notice......
Seems like 99 is the top. Their intervention resulted in an engineered double bottom that is two weeks apart. Too fast IMO. I think we go down from here. If not tomorrow then Monday. Notice GS got pounded while the market was up big. Another test of 91 is coming.
Frixxxx
Moderator
If the futures point down tonight, which they should , I'm shorted for a while! If I farm the movements properly, I shall grow a nest egg big enough for two tonight! If 91 is the retrace then I am "the Golden Goose!"
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Nice moves. The market is expecting the BOJ to cut .25% tonight. They've been at .50% for over a year now I think. If they don't cut, you might be able to go into retirement tomorrow.
Even if they do cut, we might see a sell the news. Japan is due for some profit taking.
justbizness45
Member
I sold the rally today. I think like you guys that down is the direction of the future.
ATCJeff
Well-known member
I would love to sell tomorrow, but I'm trying to make it into November so I can get out and back in than out rather than in and out. All I need is two more days of modest gains!
350zCommTech
Well-known member
LOL! The BOJ cuts .20%. That leaves them with an interest rate of .30%. Gotta save them bullets!:laugh:
Corepuncher
Well-known member
350zCommTech
Well-known member
How about an emergency .10% cut next week?
Here's a question: Who will be at zero int. first? Japan or US?:nuts:
Seriously, with these cuts out of the way, we will now resume your normally scheduled bear market.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Barclays went to the loan sharks for 14% interest. I hope they get shorted to the ground.
DC, You have to do what you feel is correct for you.
I will be all G starting November 1st and may stay on the lilly pad for the rest of the year. My account is almost on life support, but the slow recovery has begun.
