2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

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blueroadster said:
I've actually been watching and noticed the same pattern for case reporting. I'm considering going short on the market later today as the odds seem to favor another turn south for turn-around-Tuesday.
Click to expand...

Decided to roll the dice. Order for 6k shares of SPXU @ 21.75 has been filled.
 
James48843 said:
This is what we've come to.

Betting on whether tomorrow's dead body count goes up enough to spook the stock market.

Sigh...
Click to expand...

No, more just noticing a news pattern and with the big jump today, I decided to roll the dice for turn-around-Tuesday and dip my toes in. Earning season reports start next week also and I can't imagine things will be rosy. For example, Disney is hemorrhaging daily and there have been reports of Apple potentially using their hoard of cash to buy at a discount at some point.
 
Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

[FONT=&quot]An estimated additional [/FONT][FONT=&quot]180 - 195 deaths per day [/FONT][FONT=&quot]occurring at home in [/FONT][FONT=&quot]New York City[/FONT][FONT=&quot] due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "[/FONT]Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic,[FONT=&quot]" said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [[/FONT]source[FONT=&quot]][/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we[/FONT][FONT=&quot] assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported[/FONT][FONT=&quot]. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway" [[/FONT]source[FONT=&quot]][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT][FONT=&quot][source]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/[/FONT]
 
Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Very unfortunate but not surprising. Several of my family members are funderal directors with kids at home. When having to do pick ups, they keep asking about cause of death and many doctors refuse to say referencing HIPAA regulations even though release of cause of death information to funeral directors is allowed. They also have to secure their own PPE.

Additionally, I am sure many families are learning/confirming that certain relatives are from the village. I've seen that in younger couples in our extended family. Even with stay at home orders in place, one young couple (with kids) decided it would be fine to visit a parent and sibling that are infected and recovering at their house. Most of us tried as best as we could to convince them to just stay home, be smart and not risk exposure to others. Their response...We considered/discussed the risks extensively, prayed to God for safe travel and have faith. Idiots...
 
k0nkuzh0n said:
so their model is predicting deaths per day to peak between April 10th and April 22nd, with a target of April 16th. Seems reasonable, although I think an upper target of April 22nd is kinda low.

Note that the data for the past 2 days doesn't really fit their curve. I assume they will adjust this day?
Click to expand...

Was updated on April 5th, and again today, April 8th.

Now its predicting a peak on April 12th. Total deaths projected at ~60k (31k to 127k). I think the Update on April 5th was to ~80k, and prior to April 5th it was ~93k but I can't remember.

COVID-19
 
Model shows my state supposedly peaked yesterday-

Unfortunately, we're all still going to be in lockdown for some time.

Lost a third person I know last night. College roommate's Dad had been on a ventilator for 11 days. He didn't make it.
The other two died over the weekend. One had been sick a week. The other one, less than a full day- She was 60.

This thing isn't going to stop killing large numbers of people any time soon.
 
James48843 said:
Model shows my state supposedly peaked yesterday-

Unfortunately, we're all still going to be in lockdown for some time.

Lost a third person I know last night. College roommate's Dad had been on a ventilator for 11 days. He didn't make it.
The other two died over the weekend. One had been sick a week. The other one, less than a full day- She was 60.

This thing isn't going to stop killing large numbers of people any time soon.
Click to expand...

Sorry it affected you in such a personal way. That may be the case for more of us in the future. I pray there's a workable solution very soon.
 
Sad to hear the news James.

Some good news. My cousin and his wife in New Jersey are almost fully recovered.

I'm afraid what will happen is we will get back to business as usual to soon and this will hit us hard again.

Remember masks and social distance. Stay safe and stay healthy.
 
I don't know anyone that has or had the Virus and that's a blessing.:cool: Still locked up in the house, getting really old.
 
It's a miracle! Weekly Flu cases are down 95% this year compared to last year.

Perhaps it is the "stay home" policy that is helping, but really? I'll better other causes of death are down dramatically as well this year. :rolleyes:

Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as 'COVID-19' deaths, regardless of cause



2020
041320d.gif
040920d.gif

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/whoAllregt_cl14.html



2019
041320e.gif

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2018-2019/data/whoAllregt_cl14.html
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
I'll bite. What does one day matter versus a week, a month or a year? Why not look at how many died in the last hour? All I know is that as of now, around 7000 people in the US have died from coronavirus. In 2018, 80000 died of the flu. That's not a 1000 people a day on average, but I don't know that coronavirus will continue that trajectory. Do you?

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
Click to expand...

Well what makes that comparison (to last years flu season) basically worthless, is we do NOT have any large-scale shutdowns in place for the regular flu.
A valid comparison would be...How many flu deaths in 2018 if the US enacted the same "total shutdown" procedures as we have now, at the start of the 2018 flu season?

Or...since COVID-19 is as much or even more contagious as the regular flu, how many deaths would we have, if we had the "No Lock-down" policies of 2018?
Given the current US Death rate from COVID is near 4.0%, and the regular flu near 0.1%, deaths statistically would rise to over 3.2 Million....and actually would likely be much higher because that many more cases would quickly overwhelm our hospitals, meaning a certain percentage of those with other treatable diseases would also die.
 
Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

"Following new CDC guidelines: "As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19. A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii) meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19"

On April 14, New York City reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent"


This updated the April 14th deaths to 6185. I think it was something like 2400 prior to the update.
It looks like April 15th numbers were updated as well. Because NY went from low 700s deaths to 1033 at some point last night.

Some math....
NY confirmed deaths through April 14th: 11586.

3778/11586 = 33% increase from what had been reported prior to April 14th.

So for NY, about 1/4 (25%) of deaths are "probable" and 3/4 (75%) are confirmed.
 
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