2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

[bmneveu]

NO!!!

That guy Rudi G. Is NOT a licensed physician. The guy who he is interviewing is NOT accurate in the information is he sharing.

I know because I read the French Study he is referring to.

He just said, in this interview, that the study showed “100% resolution”. That is incorrect.

In the study, 80 patients who tested positive were given the drugs. There were NO equivalent group given placebos, which is the standard for evaluating success or failure.

Of the 80 hospitalized patients who tested positive and took the drugs, 8 ended up in the ICU. That number, about 10%, is comparable to what would be expected with no treatment.

In the study, of the 8 who ended up in the ICU, ONE DIED before the end of seven days, and one was still in critical condition after seven days.

The remaining six patients were released from ICU and tested at low or no remaining virus in their system. THAT part is good, in that it appears to be a lower virus replication. However, having one dead, and one still in the ICU, shows that the death rate remains comparable to the number of dead without the drug being used.

More study is required.

Here is the study. Your video is debunked: https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf


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He is referring to his own patients when he says 100% resolution, which he uses a modified version of the cocktail on, not the original study. He actually says the original study had just okay results.

Basically he adds Zinc to the Hydroxichloroquine and Azithromycin. He explains why this is necessary and why it makes such a huge difference. I encourage you to listen closely. I am intrigued.

 

[James48843]

ok-

I'm going to make a prediction here- based on all the datapoints I am seeing.

You may have noticed I haven't been around posting a whole lot, that's because I have been working, and/or surfing the various data sites and pulling up numbers.

My best guess right now is:

Duration: COVID-19 illness will last well into 2021, until a vaccine is found. There will be three waves of disease. We are at the very beginning of the first wave. The first wave will peak in the USA between April 10, for some states, to June for other states. Peak deaths will occur from about April 20th (some states), to June 1, and residual deaths (above hospital capacity)will keep going until mid-june. There will then be a slight reduction in cases, until the disease recurs again in substantial numbers in October-February time frame.

Deaths: Today we are at: 4,000 deaths.
By April 10, we will be at: 25,000 deaths.
By April 30, we will be at: 110,000-150,000 deaths
By May 30 , we will be at: 200,000-400,000 deaths
By June 30, we will be at: 250,000- 750,000 deaths.

Then it will substantially slow in July and August.

The main transmission is aerosol of microdroplets, NOT the large droplets now thought by many to by the problem. MASKS are necessary for everyone. 6 feet distance is not enough,m should be more like 10 feet. MASK MASK MASK

MORE SOCIAL DISTANCE- ENSURES EXISTENCE

Micro-droplets can hang in the air inside rooms, or enclosed spaces like cars and busses for HOURS. GO OUTSIDE and stand ten feet away, if you must talk with someone.
Open a window and a door- allow air to blow through to keep micro-droplets from standing around. AIR IN-AND AIR OUT.

If you are someplace where they aren't alll masking up now- YOU BE THE FIRST AND SET THE EXAMPLE- because it IS coming.

By August things will slow down. Market will bottom around July-August time frame. That's when I will likely buy in again, and not before.

October resurgence will be less , but will still be significant, and a possible third wave next spring.

Vaccine not until late summer or the fall of 2021.



Do you want to see what probable Hospital Overload dates are going to be, along with BEST CASE, WORST CASE, and IF WE DO NOTHING scenarios look like IN YOUR STATE?

Caution- it's not pretty, and it IS backed u by fairly good data at this point:

CLick here: https://covidactnow.org/

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

He is referring to his own patients when he says 100% resolution, which he uses a modified version of the cocktail on, not the original study. He actually says the original study had just okay results.

Basically he adds Zinc to the Hydroxichloroquine and Azithromycin. He explains why this is necessary and why it makes such a huge difference. I encourage you to listen closely. I am intrigued.

I actually thought the 100% resolution was only for test tubes, not actual humans. His patients should still be "To Be Determined".

 

[nnuut]

NOBODY KNOWS, what will be will be.

 

[bmneveu]

I actually thought the 100% resolution was only for test tubes, not actual humans. His patients should still be "To Be Determined".

He says in the video that "success" to him is the patient not dying. And he claims 0 deaths in 699 patients, so 100% success rate. Average mortality rate is in the 1-2% range, so this method may have saved 7-14 additional lives than average already.

 

[bmneveu]

My best guess right now is:

Deaths: Today we are at: 4,000 deaths.
By April 10, we will be at: 25,000 deaths.
By April 30, we will be at: 110,000-150,000 deaths
By May 30 , we will be at: 200,000-400,000 deaths
By June 30, we will be at: 250,000- 750,000 deaths.

Looks like the total death numbers are doubling every 3-4 days, according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/. That has been consistent for a month now. Following that pattern (I'll use 4 days to be conservative), we get:

1 April: 4,000 deaths
5 April: 8,000
9 April: 16,000
13 April: 32,000
17 April: 64,000
21 April: 128,000
25 April: 256,000
29 April: 512,000
3 May: 1 million deaths

This assume the curve never begins to flattern in that timeframe. That is frightening, and why we have to do everything we can to stop the spread.

 

[James48843]

Try this Model from the University of Washington. It says the curves flatten out a bit, in the future:

COVID-19

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Looks like the total death numbers are doubling every 3-4 days, according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/. That has been consistent for a month now. Following that pattern (I'll use 4 days to be conservative), we get:

1 April: 4,000 deaths
5 April: 8,000
9 April: 16,000
13 April: 32,000
17 April: 64,000
21 April: 128,000
25 April: 256,000
29 April: 512,000
3 May: 1 million deaths

This assume the curve never begins to flattern in that timeframe. That is frightening, and why we have to do everything we can to stop the spread.

Yikes. definitely don't see that happening. I don't think any country has doubled at a rate like that for 2 months.

That would mean 128k people dying PER DAY in the US at the end of April. Any mathematician would say you can't extrapolate 1 month worth of data for 1 more full month accurately. Extending beyond 10% becomes incredibly low confidence.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Try this Model from the University of Washington. It says the curves flatten out a bit, in the future:

COVID-19

so their model is predicting deaths per day to peak between April 10th and April 22nd, with a target of April 16th. Seems reasonable, although I think an upper target of April 22nd is kinda low.

Note that the data for the past 2 days doesn't really fit their curve. I assume they will adjust this day?

 

[bmneveu]

Yikes. definitely don't see that happening. I don't think any country has doubled at a rate like that for 2 months.

That would mean 128k people dying PER DAY in the US at the end of April. Any mathematician would say you can't extrapolate 1 month worth of data for 1 more full month accurately. Extending beyond 10% becomes incredibly low confidence.

That was for total deaths, not per day. Could do the same with deaths per day though, as it looks like that doubles every 3-4 days as well. We had 912 deaths yesterday, but were in the mid 500s for the 3 previous days to that.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

That was for total deaths, not per day. Could do the same with deaths per day though, as it looks like that doubles every 3-4 days as well. We had 912 deaths yesterday, but were in the mid 500s for the 3 previous days to that.

Right.... how do you think you get from 512,000 to 1 million in 4 days?

You average 128k per day over those 4 days. 512000/4 = 128000

 

[bmneveu]

Right.... how do you think you get from 512,000 to 1 million in 4 days?

You average 128k per day over those 4 days. 512000/4 = 128000

Ah, gotcha. Yea its hard to stomach and imagine even possible. I think the biggest deterrent would be if we all have already contracted it by now and just didn't know it, and now can't get this strain again. If that is the case, then we will see the numbers start dying down very soon.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Where the "Flu is worse" guys at? Still in denial?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...s-1-000-single-day-u-s-double-flu/5100905002/

[FONT=&quot]The U.S. topped 1,000 coronavirus deaths in a single day for the first time Wednesday, a daily death toll more than double that of two of America's most deadly illnesses – lung cancer and the flu.[/FONT]

 

[Scout333]

Just an example, one infected person just going about their normal lives will infect 440 persons in 15 days. Imagine how fast that will spread with no intervention! Eeech!

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

We hit 1 million cases yesterday.

Italy's numbers of new cases is somewhat trending downward. Deaths per day are within a range, but potentially on a down trend since march 27th.

Iran is similar to Italy. New cases somewhat trending downward, but deaths are steady within a range.

Spain new cases per day is steady within a range, but deaths per day is still increasing.

Germany deaths per day increasing quite rapidly.

UK new cases and deaths per day both increasing.

France reported 1355 deaths(!), setting the record for most in a day, passing the record the US had set the day before of 1049. France's previous high was 509 the day before.


New cases per day (world) is still increasing. At current rates we will hit 2 million in 12 days. If the rate continues to increase, we will hit it sooner; Maybe next weekend.

We crossed 500k today. Testing ramped up quite a bit in the past week, it became quite clear we would cross the mark sooner rather than later.

I'm expecting growth to be more linear than exponential as testing rates are likely saturated, unless there are a lot of new countries that ramp up testing. Currently, Italy, USA, Spain, and Germany are adding a majority of the new cases. Several countries in Europe seem to be ramping up in cases.

Italy seems to have peaked in terms of per-day rates, but definitely hasn't gotten better, as it remains above 600 deaths per day.

We are currently adding around 50k cases per day world wide, and its increasing. Which would suggest we will reach 1 million in 7-14 days. Seems pretty hard to believe though.

 

[bmneveu]

We hit 1 million cases yesterday.

And that doesn't include all of the numbers that China and Iran refuse to report.

 

[weatherweenie]

Or the undiagnosed, misdiagnosed, cases.

And that doesn't include all of the numbers that China and Iran refuse to report.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Where the "Flu is worse" guys at? Still in denial?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...s-1-000-single-day-u-s-double-flu/5100905002/

I'll bite. What does one day matter versus a week, a month or a year? Why not look at how many died in the last hour? All I know is that as of now, around 7000 people in the US have died from coronavirus. In 2018, 80000 died of the flu. That's not a 1000 people a day on average, but I don't know that coronavirus will continue that trajectory. Do you?

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

"[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]The World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths.[/FONT][SUP] [21]"[/SUP]