2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

[bmneveu]

These are the sites I check every day:

Number of tests being administered per day - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html

Number of cases and deaths per day, broken down by state (what James also posted below) - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

CNBC's COVID-19 live update blog - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-latest-updates.html


It seems like it takes about a week before the CDC site has an accurate number of tests administered for a particular day. If we follow the curve, we may have tested something like 15,000-20,000 people yesterday, and Worldofmeters shows 11,075 new infections yesterday. Different tests and people of course, but I think that shows that we are still largely only testing people who are suspected of almost certainly having the virus. If that is not the case, then it shows that more than 50% of the population is infected. I do not think that is the case, but wouldn't be surprised if at least half the nation ends up being infected at some point. Maybe not simultaneously, but I do think the virus is that transmissible. Luckily it's not too deadly right now, but it will overwhelm our medical industry to the point where the mortality rate increases because infected people are not getting enough medical attention or ideal treatment. Ventilators seem to be the big issue right now. New York can't keep up. I hope the curve flattens soon.

 

[James48843]

God help us all!

I just read the article over on Politico- that outlines how the team that read the Obama Admin playbook for what to do in a pandemic, not only is the team that Bolton fired when he came aboard- but- nobody else on the NSC staff that Bolton kept or brought in, or any of the staff since that time, nobody followed the playbook AT ALL.


https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285

In January, when the NSC first learned of the virus in China, nobody pulled out the playbook to alert the folks that needed to be alerted, and nobody began the intensive decision making and risk assessing outlined.

Nobody alerted any part of the government to inventory and order additional emergency pandemic supplies. When it was clear on Jan 24, that the virus had jumped to the West Coast of the US- nobody made estimates that we were going to be severely short on ventilators, and nobody advised the President in that meeting on Jan. 30th to invoke the act to order private industry to start making emergency medical equipment and supplies, while we could have had an impact.

Remember that meeting? That was Top Secret/SCI, that Trump tweeted?




That was the meeting that, according to the playbook, should have been when The President directed private companies to start building ventilators, and N95 masks, and face shields, and tyvek protective clothing, and booties, and eyewear.

To this day, the federal government hasn’t directed ANY company to begin production of any of that. The President said states should order gear NOW and bid against each other on the open market.

And could have alerted states to begin their own emergency preparations. It didn’t happen by the playbooks tables and timelines. Because they didn’t follow the book.

Lord help us- it’s going to be far, far worse than our worst nightmare.




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[k0nkuzh0n]

James did you just post images from a top secret meeting? wtf? :blink:

 

[rangerray]

According to various news reports and statements from the President and Vice-President themselves (and asof yester, the Governor of New York), enough companies are voluntarily stepping up to manufacture these items, albeit a little behind the curve. According to these sources, no "order" is needed, but they have reserved the authority to do so.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

We crossed 500k today. Testing ramped up quite a bit in the past week, it became quite clear we would cross the mark sooner rather than later.

I'm expecting growth to be more linear than exponential as testing rates are likely saturated, unless there are a lot of new countries that ramp up testing. Currently, Italy, USA, Spain, and Germany are adding a majority of the new cases. Several countries in Europe seem to be ramping up in cases.

Italy seems to have peaked in terms of per-day rates, but definitely hasn't gotten better, as it remains above 600 deaths per day.

We are currently adding around 50k cases per day world wide, and its increasing. Which would suggest we will reach 1 million in 7-14 days. Seems pretty hard to believe though.

Confirmed. Italy passed China today in total deaths. with almost half the cases (41k vs 81k)... Hopefully they peak real soon.

Next up is we could hit 500k cases world wide in the next week or 2.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

yikes, Italy set a new high for deaths in a day with 919. Previous high was 793 on March 21st.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Not to diminish the seriousness of Covid-19 or it's potential that is still possible, but here are this season's flu numbers vs. the Coronavirus in the USA from the CDC, just as a comparison so far. The flu season is winding down while Covid-19 is still in full force so these numbers will obviously change in the coming weeks.

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*Total cases: 85,356

Total deaths: 1,246

Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Tom whats the point in comparing it to the flu? And why are the flu numbers always 'estimates' ?

If those 24k "estimated" deaths are over just 6 months (oct, nov, dec, jan, feb, march) that's 133 deaths a day. If its over 12 months, that's 66 a day.

Coronavirus just in the US is now killing 300 a day, and increasing every day... and that's with drastic measures and everything shut down. Imagine if things weren't.

 

[tsptalk]

Tom whats the point in comparing it to the flu?

What should we compare it to... the Swine flu of 2009 - 2010? 60.8 million cases, no economic disaster.

This virus was designated as influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

 

[James48843]

James did you just post images from a top secret meeting? wtf? :blink:

The President tweeted those photos at the time.


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[James48843]

According to various news reports and statements from the President and Vice-President themselves (and asof yester, the Governor of New York), enough companies are voluntarily stepping up to manufacture these items, albeit a little behind the curve. According to these sources, no "order" is needed, but they have reserved the authority to do so.

Fact: The Governor of New York is saying he needs 30,000 ventilators immediately or people will needlessly die.

Fact: Ford Motor company is scrambling engineering resources to look now to see if they can develop/design a ventilator that meets requirements. No date as to when a design may be finished, and it can be presented for certification to the FDA, or can begin production.

Fact: General Motors engineers have teamed with a Washington State Ventilator company, and several of its own suppliers, and believes it can begin production in as little as three weeks, and estimates it can produce at a rate of 6,000 units a month by the end of April. (2,000 units by the end of April, and then 6,000 a month moving forward. 1,000 UAW members have volunteered to work production.

The current best estimate of the need, nationwide, by May 1, will be on the order of 300,000 ventilators. Production from all sources is expected to range from 5,000 to 10,000 units by May 1.



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[James48843]

What should we compare it to... the Swine flu of 2009 - 2010? 60.8 million cases, no economic disaster.


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

Quick question for you, Tom. So, you are correct, Swine Flu in 2009-2010 did hit 60 million people in the US. That’s about 20% of the population over the course of the year. Can you show us the S&P500 return for that time period? Let’s call it May1 ‘09 to May 1, 2010. What did that look like?

And then compare then to now. That one was 20% of the population, AND there was a vaccine already available for it. The death rate was 0.1% of those who got it.

This one is forecast to affect UP TO 60% of the population, (200 million), (depends on control over the next 2-6 months), there is NO treatment, and NO vaccine, and it’s death rate seems to be from 10 to 16 times higher, IF there is adequate medical treatment available. (5% will need ventilators, and data shows about 1.0% to 1.6% die over 8-14 weeks). Without ventilators, that number jumps from 1% to about 6% of those who catch it, dying.

We have 500,000 known confirmed cases now. That works out to: a known need of about 25,000 ventilators will be needed just based on the number of people who have already tested positive. The numbers are climbing, and we are already experiencing overloaded ICU’s now.

This disaster is orders of magnitude more serious than the Swine Flu of 2009.




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[James48843]

We are here:

The vertical red line is about today’s date.

The black horizontal line is the total ICU bed capacity in the USA with ventilators.

The red peak is if we do nothing to stem the tide of what is hitting now.

The orange peak is what the number of sick will do if we just “social distance “, and don’t actually shut down and lock in place.

By April 15, if we “Do nothing”, we cross the line and doom thousands to death.



This is why we need “Shut downs”, and “stay in place” orders across the country- to give medicine a chance to be developed, before we doom hundreds of thousands to unnecessary deaths.

Even with “social distancing” it still won’t be enough to prevent disaster. We will still “peak” far above the medical systems ability to care for those with breathing difficulties.



The facts are that we will need a lockdown until:
1. Testing is widely available and being used. That includes Antibody tests, which are still in development.

2. We have been able to test enough to identify those who have already had the disease( through antibody tests that should become available in a month or two.) Those who have already had the disease are no longer vulnerable, and can go back to work.

3. Once a vaccine is available (next year or 18 months we hope), then we can vaccinate, and those can go back to work.

It’s going to be a while. At LEAST late summer or early fall to reach the point of falling deaths and cases.

.
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[bmneveu]

Great stuff James, thanks. Where did you find the mortality rate of those on ventilators vs those that aren't but need one (1% to 6%)? That is terrifying for New York, where they will probably be in this situation within the next few days if not already.

 

[bmneveu]

Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Not to diminish the seriousness of Covid-19 or it's potential that is still possible, but here are this season's flu numbers vs. the Coronavirus in the USA from the CDC, just as a comparison so far. The flu season is winding down while Covid-19 is still in full force so these numbers will obviously change in the coming weeks.

COVID-19 is killing far more people per day now than the flu, and its growing rapidly. Just look at the daily deaths over the last week:

21 March: 46
22 March: 113
23 March: 141
24 March: 225
25 March: 247
26 March: 268
27 March: 401

And as James mentioned, this is going to get even uglier as we run out of ventilators, which is probably happening right now or within the next few days in New York.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Thought this article was pretty good, talking about the different strains and how they can be used to track the spread
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...rack-coronavirus-strains-mutation/5080571002/

reference for the article:
https://nextstrain.org/ncov

 

[tsptalk]

Can you show us the S&P500 return for that time period? Let’s call it May1 ‘09 to May 1, 2010. What did that look like?

 

[tsptalk]

It's interesting to go back and read the posts from the Swine Flu thread from 2009... :smile:

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/news-and-world-affairs/7058-h1n1-swine-flu.html

 

[nnuut]

Good opinions not political.

 

[StockSurfer]

Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Not to diminish the seriousness of Covid-19 or it's potential that is still possible, but here are this season's flu numbers vs. the Coronavirus in the USA from the CDC, just as a comparison so far. The flu season is winding down while Covid-19 is still in full force so these numbers will obviously change in the coming weeks.

I truly wish that this was a valid comparison, but sadly I do not think that it is. The death toll in Italy just topped 10,000... Don’t underestimate this monster, this is different...