08/08/13
Stocks opened sharply lower yesterday, but once again buyers stepped up and kept the damage to a minimum. The Dow lost 48-points - about half of the early losses.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 158"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0057%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.64%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.74%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
We see the I-fund was the laggard yesterday and some of that was due to fair value adjustments from Tuesday, but also Japan had lost 4% the other night and the I-fund is heavily weighted with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index.
The S&P 500 (via the SPY) found support at the 20-day EMA, as did a couple other major indices, but the rising wedge and the the May high support have been broken. We did have a nice positive reversal yesterday so we'll see if the afternoon buying momentum rolls into Thursday's trading. The overnight futures are up modestly while I write this Wednesday night.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps ETF also found support at the 20-day EMA, but like the S&P, the rising support line has already been broken.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leaders, Transports and the Nasdaq, both saw positive reversal days yesterday but they both also broke below the rising support line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar made a lower low yesterday, and all three major EMAs pushed back at the recent attempt at a rally.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Like some of the major stock indices, the yield on the 10-year Treasury is trying to find support at the 20-day EMA after falling below the rising support line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Forum member bmneveu was kind enough to post the latest Hindenburg Omen Signal info. According to bmneveu and Albertarocks-TA-Discussions, we had new Signals this past Monday and Tuesday. These have a tendency to precede market crashes, but more commonly, some kind of pullback. The last series of signals preceded the 5% decline we saw in June.
With the stock index futures up, we'll see early on Thursday if the bears will be selling the bounces, or if the bulls are ready to buy this dip here near the 20-day EMAs.
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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
