12%ayear's Account Talk

[12%ayear]

with the Ben speaking tomorrow, I bet we will have a huge rally. Everyone thinks likewise. Ben has to start to worry and many are begging him to act. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFUSmiwolO60&refer=home
``We need the interest rates to be lower to spur the economy,'' Richard Trumka, the treasurer of the AFL-CIO, the biggest U.S. labor group, said in an interview today.........
``There is not much doubt'' now, said Julia Coronado, a senior economist in New York....
....Barclays Capital Inc. economists today abandoned their prediction that the central bank would hold rates until June. The group now sees cuts at the next three meetings.

 

[Aspiration]

No, not initially. It's all about how the rate cuts are perceived. If they cut .50 at the 18th meeting, it will be what the market wants and it will have no effect on the carry trade.

I guess I don't see this one going the same way. I just don't see how it wouldn't devalue the dollar. But I guess that is why they call this activity "speculating."

You got it backwards. A higher dollar makes the Yen carry trade very profitable.

Good catch on that mistype. Thanks!

 

[12%ayear]

Sorry for the question, but I've been in a couple of different time zones the last week. If interest rates are cut, that means the dollar will do down and the I fund should benefit?

Dell

Many investors are clamoring for a rate cut, but Punk Ziegel analyst Richard Bove wrote Monday that a cut in interest rates this month will do nothing to bring money back into the U.S. financial markets. Instead, Bove said, lower interest rates will send the dollar into a tailspin and wreak havoc in the job market. http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/09/10/briefing-oil-tech-markets-equity-cx_ss_0910markets26.html I still think they will have to cut regardless.

 

[350zCommTech]

I guess I don't see this one going the same way. I just don't see how it wouldn't devalue the dollar. But I guess that is why they call this activity "speculating."

Oh, it will definitely devalue the dollar, but not against the Yen, if the cut is perceived as good. Looks like you got some reading to do, little grasshopper.

 

[Bullitt]

I've heard other things from Punk & Ziegel firm and I've come up with this..... Richard Bove = Permabear.

 

[Aspiration]

Oh, it will definitely devalue the dollar, but not against the Yen, if the cut is perceived as good. Looks like you got some reading to do, little grasshopper.

Thank you for the wisdom of your years sensei.

 

[TerpTrader]

Nikkei is oversold. They want to see the USMs rally before they jump in. I believe this will be a great week. The markets overreacted last week about a questionable FED cut. They think we will not get one. They are wrong. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070909/wall_street_week_ahead.html?.v=3

...This passage from the article suggests we may NOT get a cut:
" But like last week, Friday is the big data day and should help investors gauge how American consumers and businesses are faring and how the Fed might act when it meets next week.

Despite all the negative feelings out there, economists anticipate Friday's data to show that the average U.S. consumer isn't caving under the weight of the slumping housing market. August retail sales are expected to have ticked up 0.2 percent, following July's 0.3 percent increase, and the University of Michigan's preliminary September consumer sentiment reading is forecast to show little change from August. "

 

[weatherweenie]

Many investors are clamoring for a rate cut, but Punk Ziegel analyst Richard Bove wrote Monday that a cut in interest rates this month will do nothing to bring money back into the U.S. financial markets. Instead, Bove said, lower interest rates will send the dollar into a tailspin and wreak havoc in the job market. http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/09/10/briefing-oil-tech-markets-equity-cx_ss_0910markets26.html I still think they will have to cut regardless.

Then there's the case where the Fed cuts .25pts when the market was hoping for .50pts and a selloff ensues.

Point being, I think there's a real possibility that we're getting set up for selling the news.

 

[Birchtree]

The market will often pre-empt the possibility of a Fed funds rate cut and then correct on the news. Be assured that where there is one cut others will follow and the equity markets will rally. Think about the poor folks sitting on their arms anticipating pain to come their way when rates reset - they are frozen and unable to participate in the bull market. That is just the way it is supposed tpo happen.

 

[12%ayear]

Great week !! 76 trading days lefit for the year. I see the rally continue all week. The S Fund is the true laggard.

 

[BeaverState]

small caps down 3% in 4 trading days...value S Fund.....

Value and reversion to the mean always pay off in the end.

 

[buda]

dirty dozen.... Just out of curiosity where do you stand for the year? I tend to heed you and ebbs warnings and signals at times. If I'm not mistaking you had once talked about a certain percentage that you try to gain per week. what was that percentage?

 

[12%ayear]

watch the S Fund, small-caps are overdue for a nice run. They have been sleeping lately. I went to the S FUnd for Thursday. We have retail numbers coming out. Looking for nice numbers and a nice rally to boot. Staying away from the I Fund, US DOLLAR oversold vs. Euro and Pound.

 

[nnuut]

Jobless claims tomorrow!:worried:

 

[12%ayear]

Remember folks that are going to the I Fund for Friday. If retail numbers are strong, the US DOLLAR will rally. GL

 

[Dodge_Em]

I'm totally with you on this one.

Hope we get a nice bounce.


PS. Love The Sox .... 15 games left. The Next AL East Champs?:nuts:

 

[12%ayear]

so far this week...4 for 4 (no loses) Monday G fund, Tuesday I Fund,Wednesday I Fund, Thursday S Fund....Love the SMALLCAPS. Bargain hunters will be buying them if retail numbers come in good along with the inventory report. The key question is next week with the Fed. I need to feel it out a tad more. If the Fed does not cut, markets will tumble or if they only cut.25% it might tumble. The key is the statements!!

 

[brian_allen_19]

Hey 12%,
You need to change your icon to a man standing on the sidelines with a video camera..lol... jk..

 

[wlee]

Re: 12%ayear's Account

12%,

What is the Mystery Fund. I am new to this one. Thanks

 

[RPM]

12%

Any analysis for next week yet? Thanks,