12%ayear's Account Talk

[draggen3]

Tzoo , wow I had my free 6 shares from them and bought 100 more at 6 dollars a share . Held it to about 65 then had to take a profit . Then when it was 106 I shorted it , only for a bit , yet that was a fun stock . I wish i had more back then !!

On another note
I dont think fed will cut rates !!

see ya

 

[12%ayear]

Tzoo , wow I had my free 6 shares from them and bought 100 more at 6 dollars a share . Held it to about 65 then had to take a profit . Then when it was 106 I shorted it , only for a bit , yet that was a fun stock . I wish i had more back then !!

On another note
I dont think fed will cut rates !!

see ya

they have no choice,the economy is hanging by a thread.

 

[weatherweenie]

I dont think fed will cut rates !!

You're not the only one. A fair amount of CEOs on TV are saying the Fed does not need to cut rates.

 

[draggen3]

here one for ya 12%

from trader's talk.com


The decennial cycle is one of the most powerful cycles i know of.Its easy to trade.You enter the S&P on june 30 of the year ending in 2 you stay long until the end of july in the year 7.Stay out of the market from end of july until end of november in the year 7.Buy the S&P dec 1 in the year 7.Stay long until the end of the year 9.Get back in june 30 in the year 2.If you had traded this cycle since 1900 1 dollar invested in the s&p would be worth $6680.00 if you had invested 1 dollar in 1900 and just held on your dollar would be worth $148.00.A awareness of the decennial cycle would have produced 44.9 times the return.The average decline in a year ending in 7 since 1887 is 27%.Look at the following 1887 down20%,1897down24%,1907down48% 1917down40%,1927down10%,1937down49%,1947down24%,1957down19%,1967down25% 1977 down26%, 1987down35%,1997down13% It may be just a coincidence or it might be the strongest cycle there is.This along with the fact that the two most important cycles are the 60 and 90 year cycles which would line up with 1917 and 1947.Yes im short and expect a major decline to start by sept 23.People who think they have wittnessed fear in this market are dead wrong.I was a broker during 1987,brokers hung up and went home although some needed a ambulance to take them to the hospital.Some were so shaken they couldn't unlock there cars without scratching the hell out of them.You have had a shot accross the bow.Heed the warning,Bernanke can not save you.Get out while you have the chance.A crash in the internet age should be quite the show.And don't forget about the 17 year mideast war cycle just kicking in now and peaking in summer of o8.Gold cycles of 1.1 2.5 and 6.5 all do to peak in the beginnig of 08.Look at the market today gold up, oil up, and the market up.Decide which one is lying.There is that bearish enough.And no the world is not going to end.Its just a bear cycle.BAD VOO DOO

 

[12%ayear]

here one for ya 12%

from trader's talk.com


The decennial cycle is one of the most powerful cycles i know of.Its easy to trade.You enter the S&P on june 30 of the year ending in 2 you stay long until the end of july in the year 7.Stay out of the market from end of july until end of november in the year 7.Buy the S&P dec 1 in the year 7.Stay long until the end of the year 9.Get back in june 30 in the year 2.If you had traded this cycle since 1900 1 dollar invested in the s&p would be worth $6680.00 if you had invested 1 dollar in 1900 and just held on your dollar would be worth $148.00.A awareness of the decennial cycle would have produced 44.9 times the return.The average decline in a year ending in 7 since 1887 is 27%.Look at the following 1887 down20%,1897down24%,1907down48% 1917down40%,1927down10%,1937down49%,1947down24%,1957down19%,1967down25% 1977 down26%, 1987down35%,1997down13% It may be just a coincidence or it might be the strongest cycle there is.This along with the fact that the two most important cycles are the 60 and 90 year cycles which would line up with 1917 and 1947.Yes im short and expect a major decline to start by sept 23.People who think they have wittnessed fear in this market are dead wrong.I was a broker during 1987,brokers hung up and went home although some needed a ambulance to take them to the hospital.Some were so shaken they couldn't unlock there cars without scratching the hell out of them.You have had a shot accross the bow.Heed the warning,Bernanke can not save you.Get out while you have the chance.A crash in the internet age should be quite the show.And don't forget about the 17 year mideast war cycle just kicking in now and peaking in summer of o8.Gold cycles of 1.1 2.5 and 6.5 all do to peak in the beginnig of 08.Look at the market today gold up, oil up, and the market up.Decide which one is lying.There is that bearish enough.And no the world is not going to end.Its just a bear cycle.BAD VOO DOO

ty..interesting indeed...I am printing that post!!!

 

[SkiUtah]

If the EBB TRACKER has been able to reap great returns during this down period, my gosh, what may happen in Dec 2007 when the decennial cycle is on a buy?

here one for ya 12%

from trader's talk.com


The decennial cycle is one of the most powerful cycles i know of.Its easy to trade.You enter the S&P on june 30 of the year ending in 2 you stay long until the end of july in the year 7.Stay out of the market from end of july until end of november in the year 7.Buy the S&P dec 1 in the year 7.Stay long until the end of the year 9.Get back in june 30 in the year 2.If you had traded this cycle since 1900 1 dollar invested in the s&p would be worth $6680.00 if you had invested 1 dollar in 1900 and just held on your dollar would be worth $148.00.A awareness of the decennial cycle would have produced 44.9 times the return.The average decline in a year ending in 7 since 1887 is 27%.Look at the following 1887 down20%,1897down24%,1907down48% 1917down40%,1927down10%,1937down49%,1947down24%,1957down19%,1967down25% 1977 down26%, 1987down35%,1997down13% It may be just a coincidence or it might be the strongest cycle there is.This along with the fact that the two most important cycles are the 60 and 90 year cycles which would line up with 1917 and 1947.Yes im short and expect a major decline to start by sept 23.People who think they have wittnessed fear in this market are dead wrong.I was a broker during 1987,brokers hung up and went home although some needed a ambulance to take them to the hospital.Some were so shaken they couldn't unlock there cars without scratching the hell out of them.You have had a shot accross the bow.Heed the warning,Bernanke can not save you.Get out while you have the chance.A crash in the internet age should be quite the show.And don't forget about the 17 year mideast war cycle just kicking in now and peaking in summer of o8.Gold cycles of 1.1 2.5 and 6.5 all do to peak in the beginnig of 08.Look at the market today gold up, oil up, and the market up.Decide which one is lying.There is that bearish enough.And no the world is not going to end.Its just a bear cycle.BAD VOO DOO

 

[12%ayear]

Tonight Japan will follow through. Tomorrow is the almighty job report. This will be fun ..looking for a OSMs pop on that.

 

[12%ayear]

The bad news... bad job report..The good news..Fed has no choice.... Start to load up for the pop this month. Just when everyone thinks it is over, the markets will rally.

 

[12%ayear]

This is what the FED is afraid of. Bad unemployment numbers and surplus real estate inventories. They know they need to act , I love the fact that many thing they will not. That day, you will see the markets explode triple digits. I see the markets hitting new high before the endo fo the year before a pullback. Also, worth noting Barney Franks make a comment about the FED needing to cut. No more fooling around, time for me to start to get my gains back.

 

[Bullitt]

Totally. I was on the fence for a cut up until Friday when June and July's employment numbers were revised downward. The job market and economy were beginning to crumble even as the market stormed on to new all time highs. Time for the fed to act before this gets out of hand on a larger scale. This isn't as much a matter of being 'proactive' at this point (is that even in government vocabulary?) as it is a reactive measure to sustain further damage.

 

[JTH]

Does anyone wonder if he will cut rates before Sep 18th?

 

[tsptalk]

I'm hoping for a cut, and actually thought there should have been a cut in June based on the 90 day t-bill if you remember, but a cut may not be a slam dunk. I guess the argument is rising commodity prices and the already weak dollar.

 

[fabijo]

I guess the argument is rising commodity prices and the already weak dollar.

Yeah, it just seems like a cut would destroy our currency. But it's all relative. If other nations cut their rates, then we'll be okay.

 

[12%ayear]

Nikkei is oversold. They want to see the USMs rally before they jump in. I believe this will be a great week. The markets overreacted last week about a questionable FED cut. They think we will not get one. They are wrong. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070909/wall_street_week_ahead.html?.v=3

 

[dell]

Sorry for the question, but I've been in a couple of different time zones the last week. If interest rates are cut, that means the dollar will do down and the I fund should benefit?

Dell

 

[SkyPilot]

Sorry for the question, but I've been in a couple of different time zones the last week. If interest rates are cut, that means the dollar will do down and the I fund should benefit?

Dell

Depends on how far and quick it goes down.

Too much to fast, and it could raise fears that the US power to buy imports will be diminished, and that may have negative effects on the OSM's that sell to the US.

We are the world :cheesy:.

 

[Aspiration]

You also have to consider a rate cut would hurt the yen carry trade. (People borrow money from Japan's banks at really low rates and invest it in the US. A higher dollar makes this less profitable.) This would be bad for the Japanese market and bad for the other markets in the world.

Just another factor.

 

[350zCommTech]

You also have to consider a rate cut would hurt the yen carry trade.

No, not initially. It's all about how the rate cuts are perceived. If they cut .50 at the 18th meeting, it will be what the market wants and it will have no effect on the carry trade.

(People borrow money from Japan's banks at really low rates and invest it in the US. A higher dollar makes this less profitable.) This would be bad for the Japanese market and bad for the other markets in the world.

Just another factor.

You got it backwards. A higher dollar makes the Yen carry trade very profitable.

 

[12%ayear]

small caps are way oversold at these levels. The S Fund seems the place to be. The I fund has aton of risk in it now with the US DOLLAR oversold next to the Euro. I feel tomorrow the S FUND will be the fund of the day.

 

[12%ayear]

small caps down 3% in 4 trading days...value S Fund.....