12%ayear's Account Talk

[12%ayear]

IMO, you will see a short squeeze this afternoon. Setting-up like one. NASDAQ will lead the way into the green today. btw the way NASDAQ is down over 10 points. It is way overdue for a run. It has been very flat lately.

 

[12%ayear]

It might me time to close shop for awhile. The interest rate markets are going nuts. This markets is getting very hard lately. I thought the markets would rebound today and I was dead wrong. It seems that the good news did nothing today but take the sideline. At any rate, I hit my goal for the year and down about 2% since my peak about 2 weeks ago. If I stay in the G Fund for the rest of the year, my return added to that would be about 15-16% depending upon tomorrow because I stayed in the S Fund. That is why I told people before who were praising me before not to follow me. In this business, one day you are a hero, the next day a loser. Thick skin is the key. This market seems very tired and very toppy. I said it would break the 14000s, but like today I could be dead wrong and you could see a major sell-off. So, on that note. Careful out there!!

 

[tsptalk]

Good post. The market is always right. Not us. Stepping aside when the action is fading your thinking can be very wise.

Good luck!

 

[12%ayear]

Many people do not think about this. This is the key about the TSP. The later years are the most important part. Many become very conservative with the last five years. However;that is when your account needs it the most. The last five years , you need to take more risk. My goal is make at least 12% ayear and in 15 years I will well over a million. I did my math last night after the loss from the S Fund. All said and done There is about 2.16% left in the G Fund. If I add that to my account I will close +15.38% for the year 2007. The key to investing is to chip away at it. Like baseball, hits.. add up to runs,same in stocks. So, lately, my batting as been bad;however;I learn from it and focus more. Remember, one bad inning does not make a game . It's a long 9 inning game, so focus on the next inning. BTW, the stock I gave last month is up20% IROBOT..ticker IRBT gave it at 15s ,now 18s

 

[Griffin]

Remember, one bad inning does not make a game . It's a long 9 inning game, so focus on the next inning.

12%,

Last night I passed both the S and the I in returns and moved into the top decile. Three months ago I was in the bottom third of the group, which followed coming in second place last year (third if you count that the I-fund beat me). A winning strategy can produce periods of poor performance. It's easy to get down on yourself when you get stuck in a rut. Anybody who sticks around this game long enough will recognize quality when they see it. Keep up the good work, I appreciate your commentary.

I've noticed that following a period of excellent performance, I have a tendency to get over protective of returns and I start to deviate from my strategy, and when I start to slip, I have a tendency to take more risks (some of them bad). There is a happy medium (and it is usually in the zone). It is very hard to take emotions out of play because we (as human beings) rationalize on many levels - it's why one person's buying opportunity is another's selling point.

 

[12%ayear]

Happy to see red futures. It is always better to have red futures, the day after sell-offs. If the futures were green, the smart money would wait and sell into it. Now that they are red, it is a promising sign to see if the smart money will squeeze the shorts. I think today , we will see some clouds clear. Thinking of jumping into the I Fund for tomorrow. Investing is like baseball.....outs=days,innings=months,games=years,and season=end results.

 

[12%ayear]

NASDAQ is way overdue for a run. It has been killed the last few days. Another red day,I still think we will go green today. Watch for buying to step up.

 

[12%ayear]

see, Like I said..NASDAQ green now after being down over 10 points. We will rally today. Went to the I Fund for the pop tomorrow. This market has no mind lately. So, all bets are off. Watch these hedge funds trap everyone and blast over 14000..who knows. I am on both sides of the fence. One day, I see a correction coming, the next day, I see a strong run forming. Very tough lately to predict and I am pretty good at it. My gut was telling me the 14200s before we hit the major correction. I still think we will close in deep red for the year.

 

[fedgolfer]

I think we're all straddling the fence right now. the Dow kissed the lower channel good-bye and then dove south... not a good sign. I heard a FIG manager on the CNBC say they're positioning themselves for 1450 in the S&P. Also heavy institutional selling (gigantic volume last friday on a big up day)... may indicate smart money selling at the top? Doesn't mean there won't be green days since buying fear is still the big trend.

 

[12%ayear]

I think we're all straddling the fence right now. the Dow kissed the lower channel good-bye and then dove south... not a good sign. I heard a FIG manager on the CNBC say they're positioning themselves for 1450 in the S&P. Also heavy institutional selling (gigantic volume last friday on a big up day)... may indicate smart money selling at the top? Doesn't mean there won't be green days since buying fear is still the big trend.

great way to make capital. Betting against the herd. I stayed in the S Fund because I was busy and did not complete the transfer into the I Fund. Maybe a good sign. Oh well!!

 

[fedgolfer]

Care to speculate on the pattern that may be forming in the S&P? Double top (bear), flag & pennant (bull), or other... i think i'm leaning towards the pennant, if goldilocks is still the main story being told. If the next run up can hit the last resistance line, we shall soon see. That doesn't mean that we're not in a Goldilocks even if we sink to 1450 in the S&P... even that would look like a continuance of a measure bull move.

 

[Scout333]

What is a Goldilocks?

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

What is a Goldilocks?

Economy is not too 'hot' and not too 'cold'...it's juuuuuust right

Slow and steady growth

 

[12%ayear]

Care to speculate on the pattern that may be forming in the S&P? Double top (bear), flag & pennant (bull), or other... i think i'm leaning towards the pennant, if goldilocks is still the main story being told. If the next run up can hit the last resistance line, we shall soon see. That doesn't mean that we're not in a Goldilocks even if we sink to 1450 in the S&P... even that would look like a continuance of a measure bull move.

bull

 

[fedgolfer]

Economy is not too 'hot' and not too 'cold'...it's juuuuuust right

Slow and steady growth

also important to add that the economy is "not so hot that it causes inflation, and not so cold that it causes a recession." Last weeks CPI seemed to confirm the goldilocks economy... the vast majority of ED has supported goldilocks as of late. I'm hoping the last big red candlesticks are just profit taking and a little over-reaction. Also thinking that the smart money wont let the bull market end until the retail investors have bought back in hook-line-and-sinker. All the talking heads have been saying the big moves have all been led by institutional money... the thing that scares me is that supposedly last friday's big pop was primarily institutional money buying and then reversing course earlier this week... i have no idea if that's mostly speculation or if there are indicators that can really confirm that.

 

[12%ayear]

also important to add that the economy is "not so hot that it causes inflation, and not so cold that it causes a recession." Last weeks CPI seemed to confirm the goldilocks economy... the vast majority of ED has supported goldilocks as of late. I'm hoping the last big red candlesticks are just profit taking and a little over-reaction. Also thinking that the smart money wont let the bull market end until the retail investors have bought back in hook-line-and-sinker. All the talking heads have been saying the big moves have all been led by institutional money... the thing that scares me is that supposedly last friday's big pop was primarily institutional money buying and then reversing course earlier this week... i have no idea if that's mostly speculation or if there are indicators that can really confirm that.

The kicker is the Fed. They need to be more dovish to inspire the economy. If they keep this up, it will backfire and the real estate market will get worse. That is my main concern. Interest rates are the key goingforward. It is very possible to see the 14000s very soon. However;the future, earnings will have to be brought down if the Fed does not act. Earnings will have higher costs with energy prices rocketing. So, the Fed needs to reassure the markets and be more dovish.

 

[350zCommTech]

The kicker is the Fed. They need to be more dovish to inspire the economy. If they keep this up, it will backfire and the real estate market will get worse. That is my main concern. Interest rates are the key goingforward. It is very possible to see the 14000s very soon. However;the future, earnings will have to be brought down if the Fed does not act. Earnings will have higher costs with energy prices rocketing. So, the Fed needs to reassure the markets and be more dovish.

12%,

I have a feeling the Feds will be dovish at this meeting. It's just a gut feeling though. What do you think?

 

[12%ayear]

NASDAQ is way overdue for a run. It has been killed the last few days. Another red day,I still think we will go green today. Watch for buying to step up.

I posted above this morning when the markets were getting crushed. So,my bat is coming to life again. Just a note, did not transfer to the I Fund , I did not have time to pull the trigger...Still in the S Fund for tomorrow. FWIW.sorry!!

 

[12%ayear]

12%,

I have a feeling the Feds will be dovish at this meeting. It's just a gut feeling though. What do you think?

Yes, IMO.Why? Well, the Fed. knows that borrowing costs have skyrocketed. Mortgage rates are hitting 7% levels on 30 years fix. Home values are down,meaning less money to lend out based on appraisals. Sub-prime loans are a problem with higher foreclosures. The other side of the coin is oil. This could backfire on the Fed and OPEC. If the Fed is not dovish. Spending will decrease and that would kill earnings. Less spending means less oil is used. OPEC knows this. They know that if you push too much, it will backfire. SO, my conclusion is the FED will be dovish to inspire spending and oil will level off. BTW, yesterday oil inventory showed a surplus. They can only go to the well so many times before customers rebel and do not have extra income to buy coffee,lottery,newspapers,lunch and etc. Because the oil tank is eating it up. The oil report tells me people are cutting back.

 

[Birchtree]

The Fed will leave out the word "elevated" concerning inflation. They are supposed to be data driven in their decision making process. The next core PCE will come in at 1.9% right in their comfort zone. Will they drop rates later this fall - I think so.