12%ayear's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

He called the bottom several weeks (month?) ago when the market was close to 1200. Since then, we've had several lows but none have dropped below that number...I think the lows we've hit were 1200, 1217, 1224...Crame called it at 1200...at least that's what I remember..

FS

 

[12%ayear]

He called the bottom several weeks (month?) ago when the market was close to 1200. Since then, we've had several lows but none have dropped below that number...I think the lows we've hit were 1200, 1217, 1224...Crame called it at 1200...at least that's what I remember..

FS

TRiple digit gain today.....IMO
IMO, we are coming out of the recession. Why? The fed is fighting with bailouts,elections are closing, lower inflation,stronger US Dollar, and real estate sales looking like a bottom .

 

[Corepuncher]

real estate bottoming out

I don't believe it. Still way too much inventory out there...prices need to fall further, this will bring more writedowns. ARM resets will increase and PEAK IN 2010!

Huge boom in spending from 2003 to 2007. People used money they did not have. Good to have a 60" plasma and an Escalade, but now it's time to hunker down, spend less, and pay it off. We spent ourselves out of the next couple years at least. Consumer spending in the foreseable future will look like death compared to the previous few years, IMO.

I hope you are right 12%, but I just cannot see it.

 

[fabijo]

I don't believe it. Still way too much inventory out there...prices need to fall further, this will bring more writedowns. ARM resets will increase and PEAK IN 2010!

Huge boom in spending from 2003 to 2007. People used money they did not have. Good to have a 60" plasma and an Escalade, but now it's time to hunker down, spend less, and pay it off. We spent ourselves out of the next couple years at least. Consumer spending in the foreseable future will look like death compared to the previous few years, IMO.

I hope you are right 12%, but I just cannot see it.

You just gave me a thought to ponder, Corepuncher. If that's the way investors are seeing it, then most of those woes should be priced in by now, except for the few unexpected reports that may occur. If consumer spending is bottoming in 2010, then the overspent public needs to sell whatever stocks they have right now to help pay their debt. That could be who the shakeout is for - all those people in debt who are still holding onto the hope of stocks. Once they sell at the bottom, they don't have any money to jump in on the stock game which is going to soar back up over the next few years. They won't be able to get back in until years after 2010. By then, all the major gains would have been made.

 

[12%ayear]

TRiple digit gain today.....IMO
IMO, we are coming out of the recession. Why? The fed is fighting with bailouts,elections are closing, lower inflation,stronger US Dollar, and real estate sales looking like a bottom .

triple digit

 

[Corepuncher]

The bottom line is this: We are in uncharted territory...and even the experienced pros don't know what to do. The future is clear as mud. Smart traders do not trade on "hope", IMO...they trade on facts. Facts are sucking right now with jobless claims rising and feeding the death spiral. Once the dollar breaks down and treasuries sell off, it's all over.

Welcome to 1929

 

[Steadygain]

triple digit

We'll hope the BEST for you - and you've hit it right on the nail plenty of times before.


With the Over Seas Markets - significantly down - I'd say Europe is bound to take a hit tomorrow, and the US Markets probably will too.

My guess is the Markets will lose strength towards the end of the day - but marginally remain in the green.

 

[fabijo]

Smart traders do not trade on "hope", IMO...they trade on facts.

I know smart traders don't trade on hope, but they prey on the hopes and fears of not-smart traders. Stocks don't follow economic sense, they anticipate. When it all makes sense, the market goes completely berserk just to make sure it won't make sense.

 

[Steadygain]

We'll hope the BEST for you - and you've hit it right on the nail plenty of times before.


With the Over Seas Markets - significantly down - I'd say Europe is bound to take a hit tomorrow, and the US Markets probably will too.

My guess is the Markets will lose strength towards the end of the day - but marginally remain in the green.

My crystal ball must have malfunctioned.

GOOD CALL - as usual

 

[weatherweenie]

triple digit

Sucker rally.

 

[luv2read]

Who cares...I'll take it. Pre-op ex rally.

 

[12%ayear]

Sucker rally.

watchout for the bulls, they are coming

 

[ATCJeff]

watchout for the bulls, they are coming

I'll have to vote in late 2009.

 

[Braveheart]

watchout for the bulls, they are coming

If the bulls are coming I hope they stick around all the way through 4 PM EST and not bailing like they did the past 2 days.

I will make a bold prediction for the rest of the year only the F Fund will make serious $$. The G is safe all the rest is smoke and mirrors.

I still can't believe I moved into this scam.:nuts:

 

[12%ayear]

Godspeed

 

[Birchtree]

The biggest surprise for the majority would be for a day to day advance in the face of everything terrible. Every bull market in history, and a good many intermediate advances, has been launched with a buying stampede that included one or more 9 to 1 updays. At this point in time, I'm still looking at the current trading climate as a technical correction in a longer term bull move.

 

[Bullitt]

Welcome to 1929

Wow, somebody with a higher S&P target than Birch!

 

[ATCJeff]

The biggest surprise for the majority would be for a day to day advance in the face of everything terrible. Every bull market in history, and a good many intermediate advances, has been launched with a buying stampede that included one or more 9 to 1 updays. At this point in time, I'm still looking at the current trading climate as a technical correction in a longer term bull move.

Yea just look at Fabijo's post today. He's looking all the way back to 1975!

 

[ATCJeff]

The bottom line is this: We are in uncharted territory...and even the experienced pros don't know what to do. The future is clear as mud. Smart traders do not trade on "hope", IMO...they trade on facts. Facts are sucking right now with jobless claims rising and feeding the death spiral. Once the dollar breaks down and treasuries sell off, it's all over.

Welcome to 1929

Wow, somebody with a higher S&P target than Birch!

I hope your just kidding. It was a reference to the Great Depression!

 

[amoeba]

I will make a bold prediction for the rest of the year only the F Fund will make serious $$. The G is safe all the rest is smoke and mirrors.

I still can't believe I moved into this scam.:nuts:

And you're not the only one....I moved in too, albeit a little bit....should have known better. Only people with gold-medal instinct, like nsurf, seem to be able to time this mess; anyone with that sort of 10+% in a down market oughta be preparing an acceptance speech for the Nobel prize in economics.....or at least be nominated.