12%ayear's Account Talk

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It seems OPEC is starting to pay attention. They know long-term, they will suffer if they do not lower oil prices. People are getting smarter. More are car pooling, taking trains,buying smaller cars, and cutting spending. Companies are now focusing on going green and saving fuel costs. Alt. energy is booming. They know they ghave to lower prices or it will backfire on them. It already is starting to hit them. So, what is in store for 2009? Lower fuel,strong dollar, and a bull market. Higher inflation will be tamed with lower commodity prices.
 
12%ayear said:
It seems OPEC is starting to pay attention. They know long-term, they will suffer if they do not lower oil prices. People are getting smarter. More are car pooling, taking trains,buying smaller cars, and cutting spending. Companies are now focusing on going green and saving fuel costs. Alt. energy is booming. They know they ghave to lower prices or it will backfire on them. It already is starting to hit them. So, what is in store for 2009? Lower fuel,strong dollar, and a bull market. Higher inflation will be tamed with lower commodity prices.
Click to expand...

I agree, Short Oil, increase investment in Wind (mechanics) and have
OPEC visit China on a regular basis ! ;)
 
12%ayear said:
It seems OPEC is starting to pay attention. They know long-term, they will suffer if they do not lower oil prices. People are getting smarter. More are car pooling, taking trains,buying smaller cars, and cutting spending. Companies are now focusing on going green and saving fuel costs. Alt. energy is booming. They know they ghave to lower prices or it will backfire on them. It already is starting to hit them. So, what is in store for 2009? Lower fuel,strong dollar, and a bull market. Higher inflation will be tamed with lower commodity prices.
Click to expand...
OPEC is not controlling these price swings, it's not a simple commodity supply/demand issue as in the past where all they had to do was pump more, and bingo! Instant price drop. That's not the case this time. They've said all along there's plenty of oil on the market, and there is, so don't look for them to pump more. The problem is the spec contracts hedges. Once those are off the table and the true supply/demand is seen, most likely then OPEC will decide what action to take. More than likely, if prices continue to drop, they will cut production to maintain the nice profit margin they are enjoying. I don't see them letting it get much below $120, and definitely not below $100...again. That planned $150 target was almost reached, but too far too fast, thanks to the financials speculating to cover their billions in writedowns and the oils speculating to drive up their own profits. I see OPEC bringing pressure to bear on the waning days of BA to get some controls on speculators...this rapid escalation in price started last year when oil trading was opened up to everyone - after the credit fiasco became known. I see a clear connection...
 
12%ayear said:
It seems OPEC is starting to pay attention.
Click to expand...

I probably way over analyze the overall picture and I will admit that right up front. It seems that "lower oil" was about the only thing to keep everyone from falling into dispair. When you look at the "significant bad news" that coincides with "falling oil" - it makes "lower oil" appear more like a 'smoke and mirror' tactic

My guess is: When the current problems are whisked under the rug and a thing of the past - Oil will rise and they would have no problem showing the demand is higher than ever.
 
luv2read said:
OPEC is not controlling these price swings, it's not a simple commodity supply/demand issue as in the past where all they had to do was pump more, and bingo! Instant price drop. That's not the case this time. They've said all along there's plenty of oil on the market, and there is, so don't look for them to pump more. The problem is the spec contracts hedges. Once those are off the table and the true supply/demand is seen, most likely then OPEC will decide what action to take. More than likely, if prices continue to drop, they will cut production to maintain the nice profit margin they are enjoying. I don't see them letting it get much below $120, and definitely not below $100...again. That planned $150 target was almost reached, but too far too fast, thanks to the financials speculating to cover their billions in writedowns and the oils speculating to drive up their own profits. I see OPEC bringing pressure to bear on the waning days of BA to get some controls on speculators...this rapid escalation in price started last year when oil trading was opened up to everyone - after the credit fiasco became known. I see a clear connection...
Click to expand...
OPEC is a cartel. They float tankers full of oil to avoid be counted. There is plenty of oil. Donald Trump said the same thing that they are the ones in control.
 
12%ayear said:
OPEC is a cartel. They float tankers full of oil to avoid be counted. There is plenty of oil. Donald Trump said the same thing that they are the ones in control.
Click to expand...
We agree there is plenty of oil, and they control the supply. However, they are NOT controlling the price right now - they are riding it out. Trump is not an oracle and I doubt if he understands the oil business - it's not his forte'.

Thats the kind of lame and meaningless observation a great promoter would make "that tankers are full of oil everywhere". If there is such an "over supply of oil everywhere" why is a smart businessman like himself not capitalizing on that? Or is he???
 
Reuters, Europe.
Analysts are concerned fighting in Georgia's breakaway South Ossetia region could lead to much wider disruption of exports from the Caspian region as Georgia is a major energy transit route.

Georgian troops backed by warplanes pounded separatist forces on Friday and Russia sent forces to repel the assault.

"In other circumstances, you might have expected it to push oil up $5," said John Kemp, economist at RBS Sempra. "I think it's an indication of how bearish the underlying sentiment is right now (that it hasn't)."

Bearishness has grown after oil prices fell through key technical support around $120 and as stocks of refined products have swollen, dragging down heating oil and diesel markets in Europe and the United States.
Click to expand...
That's bearishness in oil market. Plenty of it out there, raw oil and refined product. OPEC countries don't "float it around in tankers to avoid being counted" - they just leave it in the ground or storage tanks until there's demand. Tankers are too vulnerable. The idea that there are millions of barrels of product floating around "in hiding" is laughable. Where does the duck come with this stuff?
 
Relax and watch the I FUND rally back. Way oversold at these levels. Everyone is bearish with Europe and Asia(great sign to load up). The US Dollar is gaining momo based on inflation fears, lower oil prices and a Global slowdown. Sounds easy to avoid the I FUND , however;it is all baked in at these levels. You will see the next few months the I FUND rally ahead of the C and S. Good Luck
 
12%ayear said:
Relax and watch the I FUND rally back. Way oversold at these levels. Everyone is bearish with Europe and Asia(great sign to load up). The US Dollar is gaining momo based on inflation fears, lower oil prices and a Global slowdown. Sounds easy to avoid the I FUND , however;it is all baked in at these levels. You will see the next few months the I FUND rally ahead of the C and S. Good Luck
Click to expand...

Sounds like your calling a bottom for the (I) Fund. IMHO, any rally within
the (I) Fund will be short term. I do agree that the Fund is way oversold
and should see something positive after hitting a YTD return of -19.68%.

But for how long and to what extent ? Are we going to try and catch that
falling knife at these current levels ? Do you see the Dollar dropping back
down to its lows?

The US Market has taken the lead in problems since October 2007. Bear
Markets can be as long as 24 months long. The US Market will probably
recover before the European Markets do. When Europe catches up, we
might see the 30% (I) Fund we fell in love with. But IMHO, the (I) Fund
is going to be in Hit & Run status for another 4-6 months. It can still
give us opportunity, but the risk is high and the reward questionable. :confused:
 
12% called 2008 the year of the S fund...and it has been the leader this year. I'm inclined to go with this on the I fund but gains in the dollar might offset any green in the OSM's when it comes to the I fund.
 
luv2read said:
12% called 2008 the year of the S fund...and it has been the leader this year. I'm inclined to go with this on the I fund but gains in the dollar might offset any green in the OSM's when it comes to the I fund.
Click to expand...
From this point on , I see the I FUND becoming the leader based on value.Just my 2 cents///good luck
 
12%ayear said:
From this point on , I see the I FUND becoming the leader based on value.Just my 2 cents///good luck
Click to expand...

Your 2 cents is worth gold 12%. I hope it does become the leader !
More so, I hope I see it before its too late to take full advantage of !
Thanks so much for your analysis. Someones gotta keep me honest !
 
You will see a rally today off the negative news on LEH. All the negative news is priced in at this stage of the game. LEH is the last one of the major lenders to announce the bad news. Everyone is so negative and sidelining. This is how money gets made. We are in better shape now than several months ago. Why? Fannie and Freddie are getting bailed out, lower oil prices, elections coming to an end,real estate bottoming out,and a very bearish tone. Like the flu, you have to sweat it out before you get better. Load up here and enjoy the new bull run.
avatar15801_29.gif
 
amen. amen.

I figure we'll see wild swings up and down around this level over the next few months. As long as the bottoms stay around these levels while that happens, I figure it's the big shakeout.
 
fabijo said:
amen. amen.

I figure we'll see wild swings up and down around this level over the next few months. As long as the bottoms stay around these levels while that happens, I figure it's the big shakeout.
Click to expand...

I just hope we see higher ups than downs so we can make a little money instead of staying even. :o

May the force be with us.:cool:
 
Are you guys telling me you think Cramer is right? :D:D:D 12%,Thank you for the optimism. It's nice to see you posting. I've always enjoyed your insightful thoughts about the market.

FS
 
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