07/27/11 - Waiting for a deal

Despite a 92-point loss in the Dow, the broader market action saw only modest losses in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The open was weak, buyers quickly stepped up, but nervous investors left the building before the close.

For the TSP, the C-fund lost 0.41% yesterday, the S-fund fell 0.62%, the I-fund gained 0.78% with the help of weakness in the dollar, and the F-fund (bonds) added 0.22%.

The uncertainty in Washington is keeping investors from doing much of anything. The charts look pretty good, especially considering the situation. I think we could see a nice rally after the air is cleared and we have some kind of resolution. The market has been resilient and seems to be looking for a reason to rally. Of course if there is no deal next week, and that is probably a long shot, things could get very bad, hence the nervousness. The politicians are playing politics but they know the severity of this situation so I expect something to be done - and the market's resiliency seems to confirm that.

The S&P 500 formed another bull flag. We do see a possible lower high being formed, but it is not a change in trend until we see a lower low, which is just below 1300. The S&P is trading above the 20 and 50-day EMA's and they should act as support, and of course if the bull flag breaks to the upside, like a good bull flag should, we should see that lower high broken.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

I'm having a little family gathering right now (Tuesday evening) so I am going to cut this short today. I am still bullish but I would not blame anyone for staying defensive with this cloud of uncertainty hanging over the market.

Thanks for reading! Well see you back here tomorrow.​

Tom Crowley​

 

[jkenjohnson]

DEAR CONGRESS,
Last year I mismanaged my funds and this year my family and I cannot decide on a budget. Until we can come to a unified decision that fits all of our needs and interests, we will have to shut down our check book and will no longer be able to pay our taxes. I'm sure you'll understand. Thank you very much for setting an example we can all follow.

 

[Silverbird]

Dear Congress,
Last year we had a budget, but that doesn't count now. We have maxed out our credit cards and therefore cannot pay out any more money. So please suspend our payroll taxes because it would be irresponsible to borrow anymore. KThanks. Contractors: sorry, we will have to suspend work on that roof repair. (joke).

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Dear Congress,

Last year my wife had control of the checkbook, but she never bothered to budget our money and she borrowed money from loan sharks in order to cover her out of control spending. This year I've taken over the checkbook, but my wife refuses to agree on my proposed budget and demands that I get another job, so that she can continue to spend money we don't have on things we don't need. As a result, I am unable to pay my taxes and the loan sharks are about to break my legs if I don't pay them soon.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Keep em coming as long as Tom doesn't mind?. It's a fun way of expressing our frustration.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Keep em coming as long as Tom doesn't mind?. It's a fun way of expressing our frustration.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Dear Congress,

Last year my wife had control of the checkbook, but she never bothered to budget our money and she borrowed money from loan sharks in order to cover her out of control spending. This year I've taken over the checkbook, but my wife refuses to agree on my proposed budget and demands that I get another job, so that she can continue to spend money we don't have on things we don't need. As a result, I am unable to pay my taxes and the loan sharks are about to break my legs if I don't pay them soon.

You are in a fix, as we say in the South.

 

[law87]

dear congress,

I'm just broke, stop taxing me and give me money!

 

[JTH]

Love the new Blog with the comments posted below! Thanks for all the cool improvements!

 

[Mapper]

Dear Congress,
With all the time you've wasted generating irresponsible plans and giving pointless interviews about your go nowhere plans, you could have been taking classes teaching you the difference between macro and micro economics. You know, size matters. Then maybe you could have formulated plans that actually make sense and address the fiscal crisis without risking our nation's economic standing.
Thanks.