You May Think I'm Nuts

Did you see the August consumer sentiment survey from University of Michigan this morning? It came in at 63.2, which was well below the 69.0 that was widely expected.

This fits in with what I've been talking about. Sentiment is fickle. Just as bullishness starts to rise, something kicks it back down. And now we've got some selling pressure again.

But I don't think it's going to last. Again. I'll bet it's get bought just like all the other dips we've been seeing. And we'll move higher.

That University of Michigan sentiment reading was bullish in it's own twisted way. It serves to keep in check the rising bullish sentiment, for a little while longer any way.

I suspect the conflicting bullish/bearish data that keeps getting released will continue for awhile. While sentiment appears to be getting high in some pockets, the general population doesn't feel that way.

So the market says it again; Go short. I dare you.

 

[tsptalk]

I'll bet it's get bought just like all the other dips we've been seeing. And we'll move higher.

You are probably right. But you know how the market is... As soon as everyone ("the herd") becomes programmed to buy the dips, the rug will be pulled out from under them.

Who knows if that happens today or many months from now, but I always expect the market to fool the most people it can. This continued strength has been doing a good job of fooling me and many others who have been waiting. I suspect that the day I buy the dip we will really see the selling kick in. :blink:

 

[coolhand]

You are probably right. But you know how the market is... As soon as everyone ("the herd") becomes programmed to buy the dips, the rug will be pulled out from under them.
:blink:

Yes. That day will come. That's why I'm watching the SS along with sentiment. Sentiment appears to be more neutral right now than anything though. Moreso after today. I just don't think we're ready to reverse yet. Too many are on the sidelines yet.

You'll never be comfortable Tom. None of us are. Expect maybe BT.

But my finger is never far from the trigger.

As a side note, the % of cash in the market from our top 47 tracker folks just hit 85% today. It was a little over 81% on Tuesday. I'm still putting together a spreadsheet to capture this data. Did a lot of work on it yesterday, but I don't quite have the framework completed.