WorkFE's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

If you're the kind of person who likes researching, reading and analyzing; google Japan financial/markets etc.
There is some interesting reading.

 

[WorkFE]

Good buy in day yesterday if the futures hold today.

 

[WorkFE]

Narrowing that Range Bound Band. I suppose that's not a bad thing, unfortunately it might stick around for awhile.
Little POP in the F Fund, for those that use it as a kicker as opposed to the Safety of the G.

Looking like the market will be quiet today. Could end mixed.

 

[WorkFE]

G Fund Rate bumped a full half percent from March to April. Effect?

Interest rate hikes slow the economy down. How deep will a recession dip, dunno, or the talk of one anyway. Durable Goods Report Today. Some Q2 reports tomorrow and Thursday with Federal Reserve March meeting notes in between there on Wednesday. The Good news, April is historically a good month, traditionally the best month for the S&P. Consensus seems to be, April will be positive but then we go through another pullback or correction before we have an end of year rally, The Fed has a bunch on the balance sheet that they would like to reduce. Investors will be curious as to how quickly they would like to accomplish that. The economy looks pretty solid to me, we can weather the FED provided they don’t move to hard against us. The idea of them moving 50 basis points in May seems like a lot to chew, gotta watch for those moments.

 

[WorkFE]

[FONT=&quot]We have been on a bit of a tear since March 2020, heck the S&P alone was on fire during that time. It outperformed the 2002-2007 Bull Market, quite impressive. So now we are kind of in this lulling range bound condition with all kinds of forces pushing and pulling (pandemic, economic growth slowing, Fed policy, Russia/Ukraine etc.) The talking heads have a variety pack forecast and they are in opposite directions. I believe I read where Morgan Stanley has an S&P 500 of 4,400 in year-end 2022, while Wells Fargo is looking at 5,300. WOW.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]While there are varying degrees of 2022 outlooks, they all did agree that there would be a proper correction, did we have it? I think we did but some volatility will most likely continue. It is very possible that for the time being the market is priced right and we are just giving and taking.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Unless we become entrenched militarily overseas, I see our biggest red flag movers (Up & Down) FED Interest Rate hikes, tapering of Bond Buying and Tax Changes (Individual and Corporate). Of course, inflation and Recession talk hampers things as well but aren’t they all interwoven?[/FONT]
Investing is exciting. Have a beer and stay nimble.

 

[WorkFE]

The VIX is not showing me anything that indicates folks are running off and the F&G Index has moved left but is still neutral. I suppose bonds have moved into "better than nothing territory" but they are now where near inflation.
While we have certainly seen wilder swings and there is still time left in the day, this is looking like another "the market giveth and the market taketh" kind of day.

 

[WorkFE]

Hush hush quiet talk of a Housing Bubble (its Hot):swordfight: Tech Stocks look cool and setup for a nice rebound (profit)

 

[WorkFE]

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) did rise a bit yesterday (>13%). There is just enough uncertainty in this market that it is not to concerning. The F&G did the same thing, still neutral though. Transports are dragging, could be an indicator of a slowdown in the economy and tends to lead that slowdown by about a quarter. It is the good the bad and the ugly though.
The Bad: While Globalization, practice and ideologically, is treading water, which in turn leads to less international commerce, The Good: more local and less outsourced dependent companies are outperforming. To be fair those companies generally don’t have the punch to raise the market bar as effectively as the Global companies.
The Ugly: Fed Governor Brainard used the words “reducing” and “rapid pace” in the same sentence. She also said “rate hikes” and “aggressive”. Just items investors hate hearing from the normally more Dovish Member.

 

[WorkFE]

To buy the Dip or not buy the Dip. :dunno:

 

[Epic]

 

[WorkFE]

Really I just need to read my own commentary to know to leave this alone. Its just tempting.

 

[rangerray]

I'm sitting in G Fund not wanting to risk it right now.

 

[joblin20]

I know if I jump out today, it will just bounce back tomorrow. 100c

 

[WorkFE]

For the record, I have talked myself out of making money more often than I talk myself into making money

 

[Whipsaw]

More often than not it seems I'm my own contrarian indicator! :cheesy:

 

[WorkFE]

"Will have enormous economic repercussions for the world.”
Yellen: Russia invasion will have 'enormous repercussions' (msn.com)

There ya go, throw a little gasoline on todays dumpster fire of a market.

 

[WorkFE]

More often than not it seems I'm my own contrarian indicator! :cheesy:

Amen

 

[WorkFE]

Transports are dragging, could be an indicator of a slowdown in the economy and tends to lead that slowdown by about a quarter.

I'm convinced this is the driver over the past few days. No pun intended.

 

[WorkFE]

This market right now is a straight up snake oil salesman trying to sell me something that it knows won’t hold.

 

[WorkFE]

Been on vacation since the 9th. Kind of nice not troubling myself with checking the markets several times a day. A bit of a fib, I did peek a few times. Still sitting in the Garage except for new allocations since December.
Visiting the Grandkids might make me quicken my retirement date, which I hear OPM is really backed up on.