WorkFE's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

With these swings in the market you could certainly make some quick gains. Of course you could make some quick losses as well.
Way to risky for me. Good luck to those playing for a bounce.

 

[nasa1974]

I have to ride this roller coaster. If I jump ship now, I'm out 100K. Long story.

 

[WorkFE]

I'm out 100K

Pocket Change for Nasa

 

[WorkFE]

Think of it this way everybody, your buying shares at discount prices at the moment. Glass half full. :beerchug:

 

[WorkFE]

Thinking of going for a swim, 10C / 10S / 10I.
40 Minutes to decide.

 

[WorkFE]

F&G Index in Neutral territory.
The VIX dropping slightly.
[FONT=&quot]Market currently up.


flipped a coin- C-5%, S-10% and I-5%. Rest in the Garage
[/FONT]

 

[WorkFE]

Looking like some terrible timing.

 

[WorkFE]

FTR, I'm in for the long hall now. I don't sell losses.
Of course only having 20% at risk makes the decision easier.

I am of the thought that these last three days (of which I was wrong 24 hours on either side) is all about earnings and the expected rate hike next week. Yesterday was the pump, today is the dump. If we continue down next week, I may lay out another 20%.

 

[WorkFE]

Is this fun or what?
Not for the faint of heart.

 

[nasa1974]

Is this fun or what?
Not for the faint of heart.

I'm going with "or what". Depends and sticky pants on and an extra dose of Dramamine. Yep, bring it on.

 

[WorkFE]

Like I talked about last week, it was all about earnings and the expected rate hike this week. I'm not gonna kid ya, this FOMC meeting could be one scary SOB. There are a few talking heads that don't believe the market has priced in what the FED is preparing to do. Lets be honest, the market has been bearish for a while now.
[FONT=&quot][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Is there anyone not experiencing [/FONT]the affects of inflation. Throw in the talk of a recession (Deep or otherwise). Imagine the S&P 500 pulling back to 3,700 (otherwise) or 2,800 (Deep) depending on the breadth of the recession.
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The only good news (economically) is the job market, but even that is starting to show cracks. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Unless there is some type of enormous pop to the upside today, I will keep my current 20% deployed (C-5%, S-10% and I-5%) with the rest in the Garage[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
I'm with NASA, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Depends and sticky pants deployed. I'll forgo the Dramamine and stick with Bourbon. [/FONT]
[/FONT]

 

[nasa1974]

I'm with NASA, Depends and sticky pants deployed. I'll forgo the Dramamine and stick with Bourbon.

I'm not into bourbon, but I find myself drinking an extra can or two of beer once in a while. Of course, at my age that poses another problem in the middle of the night.

 

[Boghie]

Normally, when there are outflows from equities there are inflows to bonds.

With the FED forced to increase rates - because of inflation - the flow into bonds will likely be subdued.

Where will it go. Me not know. But, I do know this: We cannot invest TSP assets in whatever it is. Yowser, what a mess


BTW, I think our 'F-Fund'/AGG is priced for an average yield of 3.4%. Right now, the average yield of 'F-Fund'/AGG is around 2.5%. So, the bond grinders have priced in about a point. If they price to 4% (this is the average yield of AGG, not the FED rate) then the F-Fund should drop about another 2.5%. The nice thing about bonds is that they are priced with math rather than emotion. The variable in the math is the guestimate you use for the target rate.

I don't want to do the math and the SWAG for the situation where the FED rates their rate to 4%. It is 0.50% right now. So, if I load up on alcohol when I get home I could run the math for AGG having an average yield of 5.5% - but I don't want to. The FED will likely be slow enough to adjust to anyway...

 

[WorkFE]

All is not doom and gloom, this is just tricky conditions.
Some folks love these swings, its like adrenaline to them.

 

[Whipsaw]

I don't mind the swings, another EFT or two would make them opportunities vice challenges.

 

[WorkFE]

G Fund rate to 3%.

 

[WorkFE]

Wednesdays pop to the upside began to late for me to react, not sure if I would have pulled out anyway but there ended up being some small gains I could have swept in if I chose that direction.
After yesterday I was not expecting much for today, but the roller coaster continues. Futures look rocky.
The Dow and S&P hovering around correction territory while the NASDAQ is bearish.

Like many on here my thoughts are that we are in a downward trend for the foreseeable future (maybe another 10%-20%), with some hit and run buying opportunities.

 

[WorkFE]

we are in a downward trend for the foreseeable future (maybe another 10%-20%)

For the record, I did not mean all of that downtrend in a single day.

 

[joblin20]

I don't think anyone saw this coming.

 

[nasa1974]

For the record, I did not mean all of that downtrend in a single day.

Yep it really sucked. The first three trading days gave us a little hope. Today took it all back and then some.