WorkFE's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

I said earlier that I'm not that person but I gotta say, while none of us know when the bottom may stop, from a 10,000 foot view of risk vs reward, the market looks tempting.
Unless there is a big bounce tomorrow I may go 10-20%

 

[WorkFE]

Gonna be a topsy-turvy kind of day. Look for another spike in fuel prices.
President to speak at 10:45. Expect markets to be up pre-speech and go from there depending on message.
Could be a good day for those who jumped in pre-noon yesterday with the intention of grabbing a quick %.

 

[WorkFE]

Not sure I heard anything there that will shake the market in either direction. Need to do some fact checking on the oil production claims, not sure that's what EIA data shows but either way Russia still accounts for 11% of Global Production. Talking with Venezuela and Tehran is helpful but they certainly are not Russia and it is kind of like dancing with the devil.
Markets a roller coaster today, keeping my powder dry. Good luck all.

 

[Boghie]

Not sure I heard anything there that will shake the market in either direction. Need to do some fact checking on the oil production claims, not sure that's what EIA data shows but either way Russia still accounts for 11% of Global Production. Talking with Venezuela and Tehran is helpful but they certainly are not Russia and it is kind of like dancing with the devil.
Markets a roller coaster today, keeping my powder dry. Good luck all.

Looks like we were down between 900 and 1,200 barrels of oil a day in production during 2021 vs 2019.
Some of that will be the fact that oil wasn't being pumped to capacity during the COVID mess, but some of it will be political choice. The chart is pretty telling.

We do not need to fund Iranian terror or Venezuelan repression. If we want cheaper gas/diesel then make that political decision. If we want to go green then make that political decision. The problem now is that investors will not trust decisions made to enhance the value of producing oil and will likely not fund it. If you were asked to invest in the construction of the Keystone Pipeline would you drop the dime. Not me. That is money out of my pocket now for the chance of gain later. But, later some other politician may shut me down. Kinda banana republic stuff. If the problem is climate change than we don't have a problem. Get on the bus and shut up.

The market was in correction territory before Ukraine. It is heading toward bear territory now.

We made our choice. Ever onward. Onward I say!!!

As they say in gaming: GLHF:smile:

 

[WorkFE]

We do not need to fund Iranian terror or Venezuelan repression.

Agreed and like I insinuated, their input would be minimum at best.

If we want cheaper gas/diesel then make that political decision. If we want to go green then make that political decision.

For the good of the people decisions and for the good of the countries decisions are not always mutually exclusive.

But, later some other politician may shut me down. Kinda banana republic stuff.

A byproduct of the modern trend of using executive orders in place of legislation.

If the problem is climate change than we don't have a problem. Get on the bus and shut up.

 

[WorkFE]

What a ride today.

 

[Tsunami]

What a ride today.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1501273636807725056

 

[WorkFE]

As always, market direction is tough to call in a compressed time frame. My timing days are over, but the perspective I offer is from my riskier days.
I am waiting until the resurrected USSR goes broke, about 2 weeks before/if they default.

Back to my bad boy days. In a down market I always liked buying on a Wednesday and selling on a Thursday for a quick hit. Not sure why but Thursday always seemed like the bounce back day. Keep in mind that the prevailing direction is down, which means it can continue.
Full disclosure, I'm retired twice and not 60 yet. I move at a retiree pace but am working age investor.

 

[WorkFE]

I agree with Epics post of a downside target of about 4000.
That's what gives me pause at the moment. This thing could still turn around today but we have been shielded by evidential facts on the ground in Ukraine up until now. We have been given only what reporters on the ground give us. But videos of war atrocities now surfacing are beginning to circulate, they are sobering.
It's another war in my lifetime
No move for me today.

 

[WorkFE]

Fairly soft landing today

 

[WorkFE]

Might be at or close to a bottom. Feels/looks about right, at least that's what the smart folks are saying. There is some overseas selling going on though, we will see what happens here. Chinas coziness with Russia starting to affect stocks on the Hong Kong exchange. Futures are a bit of a roller coaster, kind of sending mixed signals.
We have enjoyed some declining COVID cases here in the US but new cases have been picking up world wide lately.

On the bright side, things are bad all over. But everyone knows it. This didn't just come out of the blue. At this point there should not be, short of a nuclear weapon being deployed, anything that surprises us. We may very well be at a reasonable entry point. For today I'm staying at Risk 65% vs Reward 35%. Risk is still on but I can see light.

 

[WorkFE]

We may be range bound for the near future. Volatility to the downside is probably as great as the momentum to the upside. Is that spread tradable, yes. Is it risky, yes.
But if we sit on the sideline for 4, 6 or 8 months we are taking a loss because of inflation. Lockdown restrictions gone, stimulus checks over, Federal Reserve’s monetary policy ending. Make your moves wisely.

The only thing I can think of that is not already priced in is Ukraine/Russia. At least some of it. Nobody knows for sure where that thing ends up. Keep an eye on China as well, lots of bantering back and forth. Any moves by China, negative or positive, are not priced in either.

 

[WorkFE]

Keep in mind, the S&P 500 is still up 15% over the past 12 months and 90% over the last 60 months. We are looking in the wrong direction if we are only looking at the last handful of weeks.
Inflation has a tendency to make folks hold onto their money but that is a fleeting feeling. Once people realize that cash investment interest rates are lower than inflation they realize they are losing regardless.
We put on our boots, jacket and gloves, grabbed the sled and braved the cold. Standing at the top of the hill and we change our mind because the hill is too big? I think not. We are here, go sledding.

 

[WorkFE]

Good short read.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...kraine-is-the-end-of-globalization/ar-AAVrFeb

Something Nations foolishly were not doing in the first place, infrastructure security. I certainly belive that globalization will take a turn but it's not going to end. Analyzing our dependencies and our potential internal manufacturing should be constant. It's the one thing our government and corporate leaders can do that benefits us citizens.

 

[WorkFE]

March jobs report, PCE Report, Russia/Ukraine, Fixing the Regime Change remarks, Tesla Stock Split, WTI/Brent crude down as well as Natural Gas. Futures kind of flat, which is not necessarily a bad thing.
Lots to chew on this week.

 

[bmneveu]

March jobs report, PCE Report, Russia/Ukraine, Fixing the Regime Change remarks, Tesla Stock Split, WTI/Brent crude down as well as Natural Gas. Futures kind of flat, which is not necessarily a bad thing.
Lots to chew on this week.

Indeed. Huge move down for oil this morning. Wonder what that is all about. Possible RUS/UKR de-escalation I suppose, but that would be speculative at best.

 

[WorkFE]

Increasing output significantly in 30 days is highly unlikely. Probably just enough alternative output sources (small market players, Countries SNS etc.) and winter coming to an end to stave off the rally. Short term it will work but it is not sustainable. IMHO.

As far as RUS/UKR de-escalation. China is the linchpin. If China does a 180 on them then Russia looks at negotiations differently. While it serves their purpose to stick their finger in the eye of the US/UN China is not beholden to anybody but themselves. You can bet that they are very keen of the damage that is being done to Russia's economy. China is trying to play both sides but they are much more interwoven with the world economy than Russia is. About three weeks ago there was a huge sell off of Chinese stocks, that was just a small sample size of what would happen if they cozied up to much with the now outcast Russia.

 

[WorkFE]

The S&P was down 12% from its January record, down about 4% now recovering over half its losses. The DOW was down 11% and now it’s down about 4.5%, recovering slightly over half its losses. In addition, the NASDAQ, the biggest loser was down 20% and has recovered half of the losses.
Are we headed for a Bear Market, I have no idea. I do know it is not unusual to see big rallies during corrections headed towards Bear market territory, just not sustained. The head winds of inflation make it difficult to be a Bull. At some point, everyday consumers cut corners somewhere. New House, Car, Furniture, Remodels, Vacations etc. are put on hold.
At the moment I’m on defense but my Risk/Reward has lifted a bit to 55/45. There are opportunities there but be nimble, it may not be over.

 

[Epic]

I'm with you on the Defensive Side. This Market is like a house of Cards right now. It wouldn't take much to have it tank like a brick and have investors running to the closest Exit. A sketchy news story or JPow being the slightest bit Hawkish. You never know. :worried:

 

[WorkFE]

If one is a bit more bullish than I am, they may be inclined to wade into the water today. After the abysmal quarter ending today, I would not be surprised if we had a bit of a pop in early April before some folks move to safety for the summer months.
For the record, I do not subscribe to the "Sell in May and Go Away" theory. For those that do not follow. It is a stock market adage based on what the Stock Trader's Almanac calls the "best 6 months of the year." Historical data reveals that the top performing 6-month rolling period, on average, has been November through April.