WorkFE's Account Talk

[waltj]

Re: ift

Jobless claims might increase more soon especially if this shutdown isn't averted. Federal workers can claim unemployment after 2 weeks right? Not entirely sure but heard that somewhere.

This FedSmith article may clear up some of your questions. https://www.fedsmith.com/2019/01/02/can-get-unemployment-benefits-shutdown/ Be aware that rules may vary from state to state, and more than likely a payback will be required if the fed does as it has in the past and pays for the time it wasted.

 

[WorkFE]

Well there ya go Sniper

 

[WorkFE]

Re: ift

Looking like yesterday would have been a good day to jump in for a quick hit and run.

 

[WorkFE]

Long time absence

Nothing like a 10% drop to bring you back to your favorite forum after a long absence. :embarrest:

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Long time absence

Welcome back!

 

[WorkFE]

Re: ift

Since I have been gone awhile and my age has moved me into a more conservative TSP balancing act I figured I owe a somewhat new investment strategy. I am currently G-95% and S-5%, been there since November. All because my appetite for risk tolerance diminished, my investing goals have changed, and my time horizon is shorter.
I don’t like uncertainty and safer, steadier returns feel better to me than the potential for larger returns. There was a time when 10%+ returns was my goal and sometimes I made it and sometimes not so much. Like many of you, I have ridden the Bull and at times was spit out by the Bear. We were aggressive then and got emotional together on those crazy rollercoasters.
I still have the stomach to take quick short-term bounce chance but the Ups and Downs that this market is experiencing and head fakes make it difficult to time that.
From time to time I’ll follow the leader from a few of you but very seldom will I go more than 20% into risk unless I’m feeling really good about the chances.

 

[WorkFE]

Some after lunch buying.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: ift

Well that certainly was an interesting end of day trading. Looks like we are setting up for another one today also.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Long time absence

Yesterday at Mid-day I was thinking "If Tuesday is a Big Down day like today I might slip 10% into the C or S". Then of course the snap back occurred.
Today I'm thinking the same for tomorrow, unless this things springs back in the afternoon like yesterday.

 

[Boghie]

Like I mentioned in another thread, I want this cat to bounce a few times to ensure it's demise.

I'm within 4 to 7 years of retirement. I don't need to take big losses and I don't need to have big wins. Slow and steady wins the race. Right now, my 45% in C/S/I looks ok. I'm down 4% while others with more risk are down >10% - and, that includes losses from when I was 65% in C/S/I. So, ok...

If I were already living in my Winnebago and traveling the world (or, sitting on my butt watching great football games) I wouldn't want much in this market. Why?

 

[WorkFE]

I agree. I was sitting 45% in C and S. Backed out a couple months ago. This pull back probably would have me on edge if that was still my allocation but not sure I would run for the hills, hate selling losses.

I was thinking purely from a two day (big) losing streak giving us a quick bounce.

Then again I'm a ascared of risk nowadays and probably would have stayed put. 1-2 years out now.

 

[WorkFE]

Yesterdays late day run did not have the legs of Mondays run. Still, a softer landing than I thought it was gonna be.
Anyone who played for a bounce, futures look promising for that.

 

[WorkFE]

Anyone who played for a bounce, futures look promising for that.

 

[rangerray]

It was nice while it lasted.

 

[Boghie]

;damnit

Another no-bueno moment...

 

[WorkFE]

Big down day yesterday turns into an up day. Big up day today turns into a down day.

We've seen this movie before. On the positive side, we could be consolidating. Everything going on around the world should be priced in at this point. On the negative side, we could see more legs down. Things could go either way.

 

[WorkFE]

Looks like it might be a up and down seesaw market today. Stay nimble

 

[WorkFE]

Easy with the cold water, you're putting my fire out.

 

[WorkFE]

"I think I can, I think I can, I think I can..."

 

[WorkFE]

I'd like say I didn't see that coming but I'd be fibbing.
I believe I heard someone else mention they believe there is more downside coming. I happen to agree.
There is plenty of items in the news cycle daily that I don't need to point out what this group already knows.

The one item that I've noticed, the VIX. We have the indices for the most part in correction territory. The VIX is showing volatility but not overblown. I believe there are equal parts fear and complacency.
There's a bit of tug of war going on between the 2, the overall rational direction is down considering the economic short term picture. We had an incredible run, a lull in the action would not be unheard of.