WorkFE's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

nothing is more focused than global trade developments. China/US trade relations is >than half a trillion dollars. That moves markets.

Interestingly enough there has been a few positives on the China/US trade front but the market, other than big intraday swings, has not finished the day one would think.
1. The stuff is already baked into the cake.
2. Folks are shoring up the annual portfolios
3. Folks ain't buying the news.

I don't have a lot and what I got I'm not trying to make smaller. Good luck to those that are in. Have a great weekend all.

 

[Mcqlives]

I think all three are likely. But something else is going on I can't see....It's driving me crazy looking for any catalysts. Come on for goodness sake!!!!! A while back the market didn't like the US China trade war and we go down. Now China lowers tariffs on cars and market does this meandering. What gives!?!?!

 

[WorkFE]

Re: ift

Markets grow, over time. Has it really been 10 years ago, wow.
I think you have to dig deeper. I wasn't alive during the Great Depression but I suspect those that invested during that time were much smarter coming out of it than they were going in. Fast forward to 2008, mental memory.

There is more than just numbers, yes we have bad news and watch the market climb. That happens because the technically things are solid.
Growth is slowing around the globe and we have come a long way since 2008. Folks are weary and they were around then.
Add in the domestic and international power struggles going on, immigration, budgets, equality etc. its a recipe for skittish behavior. I also suspect there is a bunch of herd mentality going on.

Add in stuff like state, local, and federal governments $7 trillion short in funding pensions. $7 Trillion, I remember when our National Debt was less than that. It was not that long ago, 2003ish.

The desire to get elected out-ways common sense, nobody wants bad news.

 

[Mcqlives]

Re: ift

Thanks for writing this! Just reading it made me come at the markets from a different direction...I'll call it the globalism view. I have a habit on getting too centered on specific funds and then forget the big money follows global issues when deciding liquidity, etc.

Unfortunately, when using this view, I think that it will be hard for us to make money. I hope 2604ish holds again, otherwise I expect to have lost 4% on this trade before I can get out on Monday.

 

[WorkFE]

Lots of folks make money in these conditions, its just riskier.
When it comes to TSP, because of the limits, you have to take big risk or little monthly bites in these conditions. Over the course of a year those bites add up and I'm okay with that.
Many of times I've made moves in relation to news, regardless of the market indicators.
Don't tell anyone but I also follow the herd sometimes.

 

[WorkFE]

Bull to Bear, are we there yet.
By definition we haven't crossed that line yet but the Bears are definitely in charge at the moment.
In my estimation we would need to get to about 21,500 (DJIA) to signal a bear market. That doesn't mean we are not in one already. If you're in the garage and we are headed there then you're in a safe place.

For those new to putting money away for their future:
The Dow reached 14,164.43 on October 9, 2007. It plummeted 80 percent to 6,594.44 on March 5, 2009. It didn't regain its pre-recession high until March 11, 2013, when it hit 14,254.38. Boy does that seem like a life time ago.

When the TSP board cautions folks from trading, for the most part, it is for your own good. If you don't follow the markets continuously, with a smidgen of intelligence, be balanced, be nimble and for goodness sake don't Buy high then sell low. However there are times when it is acceptable to eat the loss but you have to really understand where the market is going. Time is your friend when you are caught on the wrong side of a slide, correction or Bear Market.

For the record, I have been in the garage for a few months. Market seemed overheated to me. In hindsight it was a good move but it was just luck. No reason to panic yet, just keep March 5, 2009 in the back of your mind.

 

[WorkFE]

Just to add to my earlier post. Full disclosure, I am NOT one of those folks with a smidgen of intelligence in the markets. I read a lot, follow the herd and take a bunch of guesses.

Not all bear markets are born the same way but they all cause an emotion, Fear.
Personally, because the current economic conditions look healthy, I believe that what is driving this train is the height of the market has investors hair raised and the FEAR of a worsening trade war. These are news cycles or bumps in the road that can easily slow any economy. Factor in that we are so intertwined as a global economy now that everything matters, definitely more so than 10 years ago.

The government is not our savior, they can soften the landing but if the consumer stops (slows) spending then a recession is on the doorstep. I often evaluate my own spending, if I am slowing my spending, because of economic FEAR, then my neighbor could be as well.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: ift

Nothing is safe today but man, Oil is getting crushed.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: ift

Probably not what some wanted to hear from the Fed, its not personal but when you're knee deep it sure feels like it.

 

[WorkFE]

I’ve never met a person successful in the markets who wasn’t chased bythe bear at one time or another. To have good times in the markets, one needsto be able to embrace extreme turbulence.
You got to take what it gives you, good and bad.
For what its worth, I would try to avoid the bad ones as much as possible.

 

[WorkFE]

With every passing day I am a bit more convinced we are headed to the 18,500 - 19,000 area of the DOW.
I'm planning on a 3.5% 2019.

 

[WorkFE]

For those who have been exposed for the last few months,a decision had to be made to exit. Hopefully not after all the bloodletting.

At some point those who were sitting in the garage, needto look for an entry point. I exited C/S/I on 8/27/2018.
C and S are running about $8 less a share today than the daysold and I fund about $5.
How much more significant downside is left, hmmmm.From a share price sell/buy view I have the advantage. Maybe just hold until some of the fear subsides.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: ift

I'm in a hold pattern (G) until January. Any earnings reports then should tell us quite a bit about 2019.
Looking forward to listening to all of you in the New Year.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: ift

That is probably the hardest 4% I have every worked for, but I will take it. In hindsight I could have cruised in the G fund and made 75% of that.
As I enter into the last few years of planned employment my moves will be more thought out. Although 10% or greater gains sure look nice, getting there comes with bigger risk.
My goal for 2019 is 6%, I believe that is doable even in a down year.

Good luck all.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: ift

Congrats on your 4% gain.

I went from a positive 9% at the end of September to a minus 12% for the year. Not a loss yet but don't know how long I can wait for an uptick. Going to be a long climb out of this rabbit hole.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: ift

Not a loss yet but don't know how long I can wait for an uptick.

A recognized loss you would like to keep from becoming a realized loss. Been there done that. I don't envy you.

We have seen this show numerous times, Big swings from minus to plus only to be sold off in the afternoon.

I would probably do exactly what you are doing, hold on. Surrender to fight another day is a pet peeve of mine.

 

[WorkFE]

Considered a move to C/S/I today but ultimately stayed put.

Maybe we will revisit 2351 for <$ buy in.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: ift

Feeding the beast

Weekly jobless claims increase more thanexpected, OPEC oil output posts biggest drop since 2017 on Saudi move, Factoryactivity hits 2-year low as orders plunge, Mortgage applications plunge bynearly 10 percent, Federal workers won't see a check for weeks etc.

 

[wavecoder]

Re: ift

Feeding the beast

Weekly jobless claims increase more thanexpected, OPEC oil output posts biggest drop since 2017 on Saudi move, Factoryactivity hits 2-year low as orders plunge, Mortgage applications plunge bynearly 10 percent, Federal workers won't see a check for weeks etc.

Jobless claims might increase more soon especially if this shutdown isn't averted. Federal workers can claim unemployment after 2 weeks right? Not entirely sure but heard that somewhere.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: ift

Don't know, never had to do it.