WorkFE's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

Tomorrow's economic calendar is full of land mines (Jobs Report, Unemployment Report, bunch of Fed Folks speaking etc. etc. etc.)
It could make today look mild or erase the losses.

 

[nasa1974]

Tomorrow's economic calendar is full of land mines (Jobs Report, Unemployment Report, bunch of Fed Folks speaking etc. etc. etc.)
It could make today look mild or erase the losses.

Another bleak Friday?

 

[WorkFE]

The NASDAQ closed into correction territory yesterday followed by the S&P, down 6% then the DOW down 5.5%
The S Fund would be a buy, down roughly $13, if I treated it like stock.

 

[WorkFE]

This thing is all over the map.
It would be easier to throw darts, blindfolded.

 

[WorkFE]

I was so close to pulling the trigger on some beat down S Fund today but as usual I missed the deadline. Other than surprises there is nothing on the calendar for Monday. Regular weekend so unless the news cycle finds something to horrify us, I believe we fight back that day. Shaping up to be a quick in today out Monday.

The I Fund continues to remind me to not give in so quickly. It has been the place to be so far this year.

My wife's WMT has taken a beating the last few weeks. 2027 is her drop out date with a price target of $250. $BANK$

Good Luck all and for us still working don’t forget your 5 Bullets.

 

[JTH]

I was so close to pulling the trigger on some beat down S Fund today but as usual I missed the deadline. Other than surprises there is nothing on the calendar for Monday. Regular weekend so unless the news cycle finds something to horrify us, I believe we fight back that day. Shaping up to be a quick in today out Monday.

The I Fund continues to remind me to not give in so quickly. It has been the place to be so far this year.

My wife's WMT has taken a beating the last few weeks. 2027 is her drop out date with a price target of $250. $BANK$

Good Luck all and for us still working don’t forget your 5 Bullets.

Can't remember where, but I recall WMT asked their China suppliers to "eat" the tariff cost. Of course this is classic WMT/AMZN tactics, and they usually have the leverage to pull it off.

IMHO, nobody runs a brick store better than WMT, if they raise their prices, and consumers stop buying, that's a dead canary for all of us.

 

[WorkFE]

Can't remember where, but I recall WMT asked their China suppliers to "eat" the tariff cost. Of course this is classic WMT/AMZN tactics, and they usually have the leverage to pull it off.

IMHO, nobody runs a brick store better than WMT, if they raise their prices, and consumers stop buying, that's a dead canary for all of us.

There e-commerce portfolio picks up every year, not AMZN which I own, but digging in as well as expanding purchases from other countries. Notable analysts have a price target over $200 by mid 2027.

 

[WorkFE]

As I watch this market unfold, I must remind myself that I've seen this before. we've gone from what I thought was overbought to now being oversold. But that's fairly normal when the indicators are flashing extreme fear (blood in the water). While I have not contributed any existing $ I have switched over to buying (future contributions) on the way down (peanuts). If this is short lived, nothing lost. If it continues (>12 months) it will add up down the road at a discount (fingers crossed). As for my current funds (100% G), that's a tougher question. I'm probably closer to moving 10% into C Fund than I am the S fund, and I still like the I fund better than those 2. We will see how the week plays out.

 

[WorkFE]

As I watch this market unfold, I must remind myself that I've seen this before. we've gone from what I thought was overbought to now being oversold. But that's fairly normal when the indicators are flashing extreme fear (blood in the water). While I have not contributed any existing $ I have switched over to buying (future contributions) on the way down (peanuts). If this is short lived, nothing lost. If it continues (>12 months) it will add up down the road at a discount (fingers crossed). As for my current funds (100% G), that's a tougher question. I'm probably closer to moving 10% into C Fund than I am the S fund, and I still like the I fund better than those 2. We will see how the week plays out.

Also forgot to mention. Since Friday is a possible Gov't shutdown, money, I am inclined not to tempt fate until that is resolved.

 

[WorkFE]

So the NASDAQ is well into correction territory, about 13.5% off its December high. Then comes the S&P at -8% followed closely by the DOW at -7%.
Futures are currently green, maybe a bounce today, maybe not.

 

[nasa1974]

So the NASDAQ is well into correction territory, about 13.5% off its December high. Then comes the S&P at -8% followed closely by the DOW at -7%.
Futures are currently green, maybe a bounce today, maybe not.

Lots of ups and downs already. Another sticky pants day.

 

[WorkFE]

Another sticky pants day.

There are days like today that require sticky pants. Yesterday was a full on Depends Day.

 

[WorkFE]

For those that post that they are angry at the current administration for the down market affecting their TSP but buying stocks at lower prices, shame.
Act like the market only has one direction, up, for your personal benefit.
The debt is unsustainable, even die hard liberal economists agree with that. Feel the pain, play nice.

 

[WorkFE]

Well, those market futures took a wrong turn.
There are some noteworthy items on the economic calendar, Initial jobless claims for one.
Still hanging out in the garage, good luck to those looking for an entry or exit.

 

[WorkFE]

Lots of commentary about "Will we go lower". The NASDAQ is well into correction territory at about -14%, while the S&P and DOW are with a whisker at 9.5-9.9% depending on if my math is off a smidge.
Unlike 08-09 when my hesitancy made me ride out some depressingly painful valuation losses, I am in a different space this time. But sitting in the garage comes at a cost, you lose out on valuable earnings on the edges.
I will most likely start to buy some of this, maybe not today but soon. For those who have read my comments before you know I don't sell losses so I could be in for some more pain if we don't find a floor soon. Good luck to all.

 

[WorkFE]

It is a small world which makes the global market, everybody's market. I will be back into the I fund when things settle down.

But I’m not going to ignore the home front. There has been contracting manufacturing in the US for years. Honestly, not entirely a bad thing. This has helped a lot of other nations join in the global productivity. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Pres. Trumps tariff policies and deregulation could energize the home front business activity which could trigger growth.

There were a lot of financial experts expecting January through June to be volatile. Policy changes/uncertainty from a new administration and the Fed, as well as coming off a economically hot 2024. These first 6 months, outside of TSP (100% G) I have taken a market-neutral position. I have diversified into positions that are less impacted by global risks, stalwarts that have a proven track record of profitability. Good investing practices always include constantly reevaluating your positions, what’s working or what’s not and for sure what is going on throughout the world. Short of WW III, we are living in exciting times. Good Luck All.

 

[WorkFE]

Sometimes the market works against us and sometimes with us, and past performance is not indicative of our future successes or failures. We must keep in mind that the market doesn't work to reward us as individuals, the market doesn’t know us and isn’t out to get us and that our success or failure is not a personal reflection of our worth. We must be humble and understand that success in the markets takes time, patience, and we must be willing to learn from our mistakes. Make informed and calculated decisions. Major League Baseball is back.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[WorkFE]

Do I put some skin in the game or play it safe, 28 Minutes.

 

[WorkFE]

Do I put some skin in the game or play it safe, 28 Minutes.

I moved 10% in the I Fund COB today, remaining in G Fund.