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WorkFE's Account Talk
- Thread starter WorkFE
- Start date
WorkFE
Well-known member
It's easy to get excited about the direction of the market, seriously, who doesn't like the last few weeks.
While I certainly will continue to buy into my C, S and I positions, I must remind myself that we are still well off our highs. (DOW -2500, NASDAQ -3000 and S&P -450)
Two ways to look at that. 1. Still plenty of room to the upside or 2. We still have a long way to go to declare victory.
I don't have all my eggs in one basket, I've kind of spread it around since May. Sitting roughly 50% Cash, 15% C, 20% S and 15% I. The I fund is my focus right now. That could be a big winner in 6-12 months from now if World Geopolitics improve. Surely we cant continue high levels of tensions between US, Russia, China and Iran. NK is going to continue to be NK. But surely we can cool tensions with the other three.
Anyway, futures down a bit this morning. Maybe a breather day before we figure out direction.
While I certainly will continue to buy into my C, S and I positions, I must remind myself that we are still well off our highs. (DOW -2500, NASDAQ -3000 and S&P -450)
Two ways to look at that. 1. Still plenty of room to the upside or 2. We still have a long way to go to declare victory.
I don't have all my eggs in one basket, I've kind of spread it around since May. Sitting roughly 50% Cash, 15% C, 20% S and 15% I. The I fund is my focus right now. That could be a big winner in 6-12 months from now if World Geopolitics improve. Surely we cant continue high levels of tensions between US, Russia, China and Iran. NK is going to continue to be NK. But surely we can cool tensions with the other three.
Anyway, futures down a bit this morning. Maybe a breather day before we figure out direction.
rangerray
Active member
That is something to pray for every day on so many levels! Thanks for the reminder.
felixthecat
Member
I don't believe you made a bad decision. There is pause for indecision since the 1972-1974 crash and bear market rally did have a greater than 10 percent pullback after a similar run we just had. It does play into my forecast to not see the new bull run take off until April/May 2023.
A slow grind down into the new year is possible if inflation and the current Russia/Ukraine conflict are not resolved. Food and vehicle prices continue to hit consumers even while they muster through higher monthly home/rental costs. I do think we probably will not see the June lows again but we might all be thinking it more as the slow grind pulls the S&P back to around 3850-3900 area. Who knows really...the FED has to unload it's bloated balance sheet of mortgage back securities which may accelerate the housing recession. More bad news to come. Oil prices are he only saving grace. If they head back up...well...that would be a show stopper for the new rally. Too much tide to overcome.
rangerray
Active member
I really don’t think that shows any more greediness than a “buy and holder”, or even compared to someone sitting in cash waiting. You’re just playing the game a different way.
I think the term greed is waaaaaaaay overused.
Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS
WorkFE
Well-known member
I think the first one is no longer an option.
Loreta Mester, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland: “I believe that the Fed has more work to do in order to get inflation under control,” Mester told the audience. “This will entail further rate increases to tighten financial conditions, resulting in an economic transition to below-trend growth in nominal output, slower employment growth, and a higher unemployment rate.
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