Will we resume the uptrend?
AGG is transitioning into a bullish chart. If I had one last concern it would be that we still haven't established a higher low. Nevertheless, the indicators are embedded to the upside, the previous descending red trendline is shattered, and 4 of the last 6 closes have been above the 50% retracement line. Bear in mind as prices within the red circle leave the 6-month window, prices within the green circle will rise significantly. For now, I don't consider this chart to be overbought, I consider it to be embedded, and we just don't know how long this condition will remain in its current state.
If I were...
- Already in, I'd hold.
- In stocks I wouldn't use an IFT. Don't lock in a loss on stocks, for the slow gains in bonds.
- Out of IFTs I'd consider taking some (not all) profits before the pullback.
- Sidelined I'd wait for a pullback and look for an established higher swing low.
S&P 500 is in the process of a Bullish Pullback. If I had concerns it would be that this last high/low wave has been 37.5% shorter than the previous wave. However, both waves have maintained their integrity above their 50% retracements. I wouldn't want this pullback to go much deeper, but it has room to go down further, yet still remain bullish within the 6-month window. If we were to get a close below 1305, I'd get concerned, otherwise some of my upside May projections can take us as high as 1420.
If I were...
- Already in, I'd hold.
- In bonds I'd maybe consider using an IFT into stocks. Wait for an intrady break above 1355 in conjunction with a higher intrady low.
- Out of IFTs I'd stick it out, looking for the uptrend to resume.
- Sidelined I'd Wait for an intraday break above 1355 in conjunction with a higher intraday low.
Wilshire 4500 is in the process of a Bullish Pullback. This is the weakest chart this week, with a 65% reading. My concern is with the depth of the last wave, it's pulled back and closed twice under its 50% retracement. Still, this is why I look and measure all inputs within the 6-month window and not the near-term. As a whole, this is still a bullish chart. If we were to get a close below 694, I'd get concerned, otherwise some of my upside May projections can take us as high as 757.
If I were...
- Already in, I'd hold.
- In bonds I'd maybe consider using an IFT into stocks. Wait for an intrady break above 717 in conjunction with a higher intrady low.
- Out of IFTs I'd stick it out, looking for the uptrend to resume.
- Sidelined I'd Wait for an intraday break above 717 in conjunction with a higher intraday low.
EFA is in the process of a Bullish Pullback. I'd like prices within the blue box to hold, not taking on additional damage. I've discounted (not ignored) the 4 candlesticks within the red earthquake-induced circle. I don't like this chart, it's incoherent with prices scattered all over the place, it's just too choppy. But regardless of what "I like" the chart remains bullish.
UDN is in the process of a DEEP Bullish Pullback. I've put this chart on alert, downgrading it from green to blue, due to the increased possibility of breaking below the dominant 6-month rising trendline. As I mentioned in a previous blog Is the pullback complete?, the previous 4 waves were getting progressively weaker. The last 5th wave broke out of that established pattern, and this had me somewhat concerned that we were approaching a volcanic "blow-off-top."
Note: I won't be making many if any recommendations for the I-Fund this year. I don't feel the increased risk, uncertainty, and volatility warrant my speculation. The charts are there, for you to see and interpret as you see fit.
Take care and trade safe...Jason
