Will the S Fund Rebound?

[Robo5555]

I moved from the I to the S fund for Tuesday. Think small caps will roll after todays drop. free for all!!

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

I have just been doing some chart analysis and found some interesting numbers. The DW4500 has currently retraced 45% of its September 25 low, 75.7% of its October 4 low and its RSI has dropped down to 56. A drop below 50 could signal a trend change with a much larger drop towards the August lows. We have currently retraced about 18.7% of the August low. I am hoping for another upward bounce and will move into the S for tomorrow. This may be the last upleg before a much larger pullback or it may just be a continuation of the uptrend. I will keep my finger on the trigger to pull my funds if anything starts to go wrong!

 

[DCguy]

hm.. C and S lost all gains in the morning and are down 1%... will probably end up in the red.. It's too late for an IFT...

 

[fedgolfer]

hm.. C and S lost all gains in the morning and are down 1%... will probably end up in the red.. It's too late for an IFT...

Good thing you couldn't IFT... S fund looks like it'll get .26%.

 

[ChemEng]

Anyone thinking tomorrow there will be some follow through of the last 2 hours of today's action?

 

[SCHAGAN]

Anyone thinking tomorrow there will be some follow through of the last 2 hours of today's action?

I think the only reason it rebounded was because oil closed lower. It is really being a catalyst to the earnings season.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

I think tomorrow could be a good one. Keep your eye on the Nikei tonight. That will be the catalyst. Today actually came out ok with a small gain of around 1/4%.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

The S Fund just went green after being red all morning. Current estimate is up $0.03. Hope it holds. I am staying in the S fund for Friday.

 

[Boxholder]

I show both C & S funds up 1 penny and F up 2 pennies today.

 

[SCHAGAN]

I show both C & S funds up 1 penny and F up 2 pennies today.

The C fund will be down 1 cent.

 

[Boxholder]

You're right, Schagan. I figured it, then forgot it was negative. Thanks.

 

[Minnow]

Hmmm??? the C -.01, the S +.01 the I +.09 the F +.02 (or .03) anybody sensing a BIG Friday tomorrow? I am... let's keep our fingers crossed

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

I even have my toes crossed.

 

[Frixxxx]

Hmmm??? the C -.01, the S +.01 the I +.09 the F +.02 (or .03) anybody sensing a BIG Friday tomorrow? I am... let's keep our fingers crossed

The dollar will bounce back tomorrow....The I may even -FV....I jumped el"S"ewhere.

 

[pethsm]

Hope predictions are right for Friday. If it opens up, will you do IFT and get out or will it continue up next week? Historically, last week of October is usually pretty good, but unsure if next week is the last week or the next week.

 

[Robo5555]

Hmmm??? the C -.01, the S +.01 the I +.09 the F +.02 (or .03) anybody sensing a BIG Friday tomorrow? I am... let's keep our fingers crossed

I hope so....would be nice to end this crazy week on a positive note!

 

[Minnow]

Minnow..I'm glad the weather missed you..I know what Stormadoes are like, living here in central OK.

Anywho, How do you compute the actual $$$ for the percentages in gains or losses, as you did here? I was hoping to learn this by seeing what peeps are doing, but I've yet to figure it out or to learn how...If it is a complex formula of various sources of input..then never mind..I'll just will wait for someone more savvy than me to reveal the daily tally such as you did here..I figure I can't learn if I don't ask though...Thanks

Hey Dennis.... today was easy...
G fund: paid on Wednesday so it wasn't going to pay the penny again that soon. (350z, James and SCHAGAN are real good at calling when the G-penny will pay again -- it's a formula I can't seem to follow whenever there is a holiday)

F fund: ended the day around .17% or so (sometimes it takes awhile to reconcile that one) therefore yesterday's "share" price 11.66 x .0017 = .01982 (round up to two pennies)

C fund: ended the day around -.06% or so -- yesterday's "share" price 17.29 x .0006 = .0103 (don't round up)

S fund: ended the day around .05% or so -- yesterday's "share" price 20.94 x .0005 = .0104 (don't round up)

I fund: consult 350z's I fund thread (12% a year gave the EAFE link in one post) but basically look at www.mscibarra.com EAFE index around 11:30am to 12:00pm and if there aren't any big market movements or dollar fluctuations, then that will be pretty close to accurate. just a note: for the I fund, I basically just watch 350z's thread cuz that dude is really good at calling the "I" fund for the day before the TSP board posts the returns at 7:00pm ET.

If you wanna see approximately how much money you made, then multiply the new "share" price times the number of "shares" of each fund you own. But then again, who wants to count their chickens before they hatch. As Kenny Rogers says, you never count your money, while it's sitting on the table, there'll be time enough for countin' ... when the dealings done. :nuts:

Hope this helps

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

I am kicking myself here this morning for jumping back into the S the other day. The charts were not clear. By this I mean, it could have gone either way (continue down or rebound) and I moved back in hoping it would rebound nicely. When you look at the August 16 low of 604.38 and the October 11 high of 713.32 on the DW4500, the current pullback to 687.4 is about 24%. While it is possible that this level could hold, we could also see a substantial pullback by as much as 68%. This leaves a wide range of further drop possible. And with the RSI still above 50, that leaves a lot of downside opportunity still. Look at late July/ealry August where the RSI drop from just above 50 down to below 30 encompassed about 70 points (10% loss!!). I am bailing tonight. Not worth the risk.

 

[DCguy]

wow.. bad time to be invested heavily in stock. I guess I'll just stay in S and see what'll happen next week... Will we see what happened in August in the next week? hope not.. too late for an IFT..

 

[Birchtree]

Be right and sit tight. Watch Griffin, he'll show how to bleed in the S fund. He's already bled 3.6% and will do so again today.