Will the S Fund Rebound?

[Ed_the_Fed]

The S Fund is currently sitting almost 8% below its July 13 21.21 high. A rebound back up to this level would yield about 8.4% gain. The markets are so volatile right now that we may see large ups and downs in the near term. Get out your malox tabs folks!

 

[BeaverState]

The S Fund is currently sitting almost 8% below its July 13 21.21 high. A rebound back up to this level would yield about 8.4% gain. The markets are so volatile right now that we may see large ups and downs in the near term. Get out your malox tabs folks!

I suspect it will do better come October.

 

[Bullitt]

Any particular reasons why S fund should do better come Oct?

 

[qibovin]

Any particular reasons why S fund should do better come Oct?

Seasonality

 

[Robo5555]

Mid Sept and the S fund is already rebounding.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

The S has had a nice little run. I expect to see a little pullback here in order to set up another upward run. A 15-20 point pullback on the DW4500 would be perfect. With all of the gloom and doom currently going on, sooner or later, this market run up has to stop? But until it does, I plan to make lots of money on it!

 

[Robo5555]

This fund might be a good place to be for the last quarter. We should look at the posibility. It might outperform the I fund during certain streaks.

 

[Robo5555]

I'll be all in S fund for Thrusday.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

I hate the noon cut off. Out here in AZ, that is 9am. I was in a meeting with a co-worker in my office, glanced up and saw it was 9:12 yesterday. I had planned to move into the S fund for today. Now will have to rethink for Friday. DW4500 has pulled back about 26% from its most recent run up 9/25 to 10/2. I keep an eye on pullback ratios to see if they meet fibonnacci trends. The previous pullback was about 45%. Ideally, I like to see a red candle with a long tail to the downside. That generally fuels a nice multi-day rally up. The DW4500 is now gone green with a nice long tail to the down side. I think I may jump back in. Have to now decide whether to go 100 S or split it with the I.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

S fund is off to a good start this morning. The question is whether to stay in for Monday or bail to the pond?

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

S fund is currently up 0.24. I'll take it! A review of the chart is telling me that the S fund will probably be up on Tuesday as well but I have decided to play it safe with the Holiday weekend and move to the G. The DW4500 is currently in a nice upward trending position with higher highs following higher lows. Pretty!

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

S fund is down about a half a percent today. Glad I moved to the sideline. I plan to stay in G for the next few days.

 

[Robo5555]

S fund did good yesterday and down a lil so far shortly after the open. Might be a good time to jump in.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

RSI on the DW4500 has hit the 70 mark. I am weary of a pullback down to the 50 level on the RSI. The index has been almost straight up for the past 2 months or so. Could be due for a sizeable pullback (anywhere from 20 to 65 points). The index has gained about 80 points in the last two months. I think you can play it on the dips hoping for an up day following but be ready to pull out if it is down a couple of days in a row. My methods of evaluation have me on the sideline for this week. May either re-enter tomorrow COB or Friday COB but most likely in the I.

 

[DCguy]

S's been doing very well, but what will happen if the fed doesn't cut interest rates?

 

[SkyPilot]

S's been doing very well, but what will happen if the fed doesn't cut interest rates?

I don't think another rate cut at the next FOMC meeting is really a strong expectation at this point. If that's the case, then no cut should not have a significant impact.

As always, the way they write the minutes and the fed speak surrounding the meeting will likely have a greater impact on the market either way.

 

[Boxholder]

S fund should have made +.14 today and the C +.08

 

[Boxholder]

By this way of looking at it..What did S do yesterday by comparison?

Thanks

Today's final was C +.08 and S +.13
Yesterday was C -.09 and S -.17

 

[Boxholder]

First of all, thank you for the patient reply.

So if I understand this correctly..If I was in S yesterday, I technically lost .17 cents/share...and if I was still in S today, I earned technically .13 cents/share...Then if I jumped out of S for another fund for Monday, that means my net loss for the Thursday and Friday was .04 cents/share...

Correct my thinking please if I'm way off..

Thanks again...

You got it, Dennis!

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

Sorry I missed some of the blog late last week. I was on my RDO and was busy on a garage sale deal over Friday and Saturday mornings. I am staying put in the G fund most likely for the rest of this week but certainly for another day or two. The S Fund was due for a pullback and now it is a question of how much. After todays close, I will take a look at the chart and try to come up with some projected pullback levels (Fibonnocci). The RSI on the DW4500 was also up there hitting 70 on Wednesday. RSI of 70 usually is indicative of a pullback coming. The current RSI is 62. I would like to see that come down to around 50. That might be a good reentry area. The index was up 62.5 points since September 14 through October 11. A 20 to 40 point pullback wouldn't be out of the question. It has already pulled back almost 15.5 points with todays action so far.

As a side note, energy stocks are exploding up and are offsetting what would be bigger losses in the market. I have a portfolio of energy stock options that I am playing with. This morning, all of my current holdings eclipsed the 70 levels on RSI. I elected to sell everything and bank some huge gains of over 100%. I think the energy stocks will be pulling back and that will have a huge effect on the market possibly pulling it down with them. Once the energy stocks pull back, I will probaby buy some more long options. I am feeling wary about the markets right now.

S fund is currently down around 0.9% for the day (-$0.19).

Short term, I am in the G 100%.