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Will the low of 1137 be tested this week!
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
MOST LIKELY.
It'll fall tomorrow and not back up like Friday afternoon.
The real bottom will happen this summer; the smart money will wait until Fall before getting back in.
MOST LIKELY.
It'll fall tomorrow and not back up like Friday afternoon.
The real bottom will happen this summer; the smart money will wait until Fall before getting back in.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
The pain of the last 8 weeks has hurt to the point where it is starting to feel good.Robo if you sell into the up coming rally you will most likely miss the next 200 points in sp500. There will be no looking back. Skip you have made a goog call. Does anyone pay attention to W bottoms? Check out the sp500 on 8/04. Did anyone notice the sp500 did not confirm the 4th low of the Dow in 8/04. No other important index did either-the Dow was a head fake then and here comes another one now. The market likes to take as few people with it on the upside as possible and as many people with it as possible on the downside-no humility. As you may surmise I am a contrarian. This is my initial introduction to the board on talk. I hope I am not violating any good manner rules. Just offering my thoughts for what they may be worth. I believe the Fed will offer us a surprise on 5/3 and we will have another 3000 points on the Dow going forward. The train is leaving the station, how fast can you run to catch it? Tom is on the right track and grade1-step1 has already bought his ticket. The panic we feel from fearerais awful, but the panic generated from greed(missing the boat) is even worse. My investing creed: What's easy to do is almost always the wrong thing to do. And what's hard to do is almost always what makes you money. Always works for me but difficult to enact-like now.
The pain of the last 8 weeks has hurt to the point where it is starting to feel good.Robo if you sell into the up coming rally you will most likely miss the next 200 points in sp500. There will be no looking back. Skip you have made a goog call. Does anyone pay attention to W bottoms? Check out the sp500 on 8/04. Did anyone notice the sp500 did not confirm the 4th low of the Dow in 8/04. No other important index did either-the Dow was a head fake then and here comes another one now. The market likes to take as few people with it on the upside as possible and as many people with it as possible on the downside-no humility. As you may surmise I am a contrarian. This is my initial introduction to the board on talk. I hope I am not violating any good manner rules. Just offering my thoughts for what they may be worth. I believe the Fed will offer us a surprise on 5/3 and we will have another 3000 points on the Dow going forward. The train is leaving the station, how fast can you run to catch it? Tom is on the right track and grade1-step1 has already bought his ticket. The panic we feel from fearerais awful, but the panic generated from greed(missing the boat) is even worse. My investing creed: What's easy to do is almost always the wrong thing to do. And what's hard to do is almost always what makes you money. Always works for me but difficult to enact-like now.
imported post
Skip wrote:
Yea, I think you are right. I see the C fund as the place to be. The I fund may pick up on Tue or Wed. I do not like the S as intrest rates will be going up and that may hurt the S fund more. The I fund could take a soft hit and then go up. Intrest rates is bad for the I fund when the go up in the U.S.. However, we have some problems in our market it appears in the world opionion. So perhaps money will leave after the Fed speaks. (I do not believe the Fed will say anything that will get the market to upset. We have had enough problems and I suspect they may not want to start stagflation.) So when the Fed does not say something to change course we will have an up day for the C. People will leave the U.S. dollar as they may be waiting to see if we get more aggresive with ourhigher intrest rates. So I fundwill do good shortly after the Fed speaks. (Day or two, probley same day). Of course I will keep a big chunk in the G fund. Safe harbor until I am certain. This is my guess. I have been wrong more then right:dah:. So- do not follow me.
Be careful
Skip wrote:
Yea, I think you are right. I see the C fund as the place to be. The I fund may pick up on Tue or Wed. I do not like the S as intrest rates will be going up and that may hurt the S fund more. The I fund could take a soft hit and then go up. Intrest rates is bad for the I fund when the go up in the U.S.. However, we have some problems in our market it appears in the world opionion. So perhaps money will leave after the Fed speaks. (I do not believe the Fed will say anything that will get the market to upset. We have had enough problems and I suspect they may not want to start stagflation.) So when the Fed does not say something to change course we will have an up day for the C. People will leave the U.S. dollar as they may be waiting to see if we get more aggresive with ourhigher intrest rates. So I fundwill do good shortly after the Fed speaks. (Day or two, probley same day). Of course I will keep a big chunk in the G fund. Safe harbor until I am certain. This is my guess. I have been wrong more then right:dah:. So- do not follow me.
Be careful
robo
Well-known member
imported post
Birchtree Wrote
Hoping the Fed will signal it's almost done for the year, That will help send the S&P 500 up that 200 points you suggested
Birchtree Wrote
I sure hope your thoughts are on target. When I said I would sell into the rallyaround (1200 TO 1225), I'm currently 100% in stocks. I'm going to reduce my allocation to 50% fixed income and 50% stock until we can get thru the fed rate hikes this summer. Then I'm planning to get100% back into stocks. To quote Bob Brinker "This market is on steroids". It's out of control!!!!!! He agrees with you that things look good, and we should set some new highs this year. I get his news letter. He thinks the S&P can reach 1275 for this year . Thanks for your comments!!! That's why I joined this board to get additional insight before I make my investment decisions.But at the end, good our bad they must be mine. Looking for the rally to start next week, IF THE FED CAN GIVE US SOME HELP WITH IT'S COMMENTS, AND OIL COULD STAY UNDER 50 FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS, WE COULD SEE A NICE LITTLE RALLY. IF NOT WE ARE STUCK IN THIS NARROW TRADING RANGE.
Hoping the Fed will signal it's almost done for the year, That will help send the S&P 500 up that 200 points you suggested
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
The S&P recently hit a double bottom, and it didn't break through the lower low in the past few trading days. A very good sign. Fridays afternoon rally was because oil fell below $50.
If oil can be held in check, thats very good news and IMHO we should see advances in the market. Oil/energy has been a heavyweight problem for over a year.
If they let oil out of the can, then all optimism is off and we return to pessimism.
Companies by and large are doing ok. High energy cost is a #1 culprit why the market is depressed. #2 culprit is the pessimism. Low oil cost could be the catylist we need to get the market going.
Rgds,
Spaf
The S&P recently hit a double bottom, and it didn't break through the lower low in the past few trading days. A very good sign. Fridays afternoon rally was because oil fell below $50.
If oil can be held in check, thats very good news and IMHO we should see advances in the market. Oil/energy has been a heavyweight problem for over a year.
If they let oil out of the can, then all optimism is off and we return to pessimism.
Companies by and large are doing ok. High energy cost is a #1 culprit why the market is depressed. #2 culprit is the pessimism. Low oil cost could be the catylist we need to get the market going.
Rgds,
Spafimported post
If we can get a close above 1165 on the sp500 this week that
will be a really good sign.... The Fed will more likly raise rates 1/4 point again and that will strenghten the dollar some more.... The big ??? is when and if China seperates their currency from ours.... When that happens the dollar will fall and china's currency will rise... Just the effect it has on other currency I don't know for sure.. But it might be a great time for the I fund then.
50G 30C 20S is a good mix now I belive...
Skip
If we can get a close above 1165 on the sp500 this week that
will be a really good sign.... The Fed will more likly raise rates 1/4 point again and that will strenghten the dollar some more.... The big ??? is when and if China seperates their currency from ours.... When that happens the dollar will fall and china's currency will rise... Just the effect it has on other currency I don't know for sure.. But it might be a great time for the I fund then.
50G 30C 20S is a good mix now I belive...
Skip
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