Whipsaw's Account Talk

[rangerray]

In hindsight, that stop loss move I was considering would have been bad.

You have nerves of steel, but it paid off! I'm right in agreement with you about selling the rally, but a bear rally can gain steam.

 

[mmk119]

RR yup I think a lot of people will be selling the rally today; plus the quadruple witching. moving today though will be bad since we can't move intra day and will only catch the end of the day. I meant to move yesterday - got so busy, was thinking it was friday until too late to move. now i'm stuck waiting to see what monday brings so I don't lock in whatever the market is going to move down to today. I'm also in agreement with your's and other's posts - this rally isn't going to last and I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. I need to find a decent place to get off this short term train and wait for a more predictable trend.

 

[Whipsaw]

100% G COB

 

[Whipsaw]

So, I figure, I'm back to positive for the year , no small accomplishment all things considered. 1st IFT for March, can re-enter before April. Gap below (thanks Bquat), Ukraine still a mess, oil and gas still high, inflation not going away... charts indicate near an short term top. We shall see what next week brings! Have a great weekend everyone, I'm off today, started early!

 

[mmk119]

well, i see the S&P and Nasdaq are moving up or flat - so made my move before noon. 80%G 20%I. my last IFT of the month. hopefully is doesn't drop at the end of the day. Once profit taking does hit and/or the dollar drops a bit, I'll move the rest of what I had in the I fund to G and wait to see what the next month holds.

 

[Whipsaw]

Where did this strength come from? I mean, there being nimble, and then there's WHHHAAAAAAAAAATTT??? :1244:

 

[mmk119]

I'm still in wait and see mode. see if it embeds and all the other danger is out of the market.

 

[Whipsaw]

So, I'm on the lily pad... sideways movement, up, down, and now this big up move. I'm losing ground. :suspicious:

 

[Whipsaw]

And now this email for all the new gucci TSP functionality and how they're going to make it harder to get into our accounts to use the TWO IFTs (that they haven't given us any more of...).

So, we can chat with advisors it seems. Maybe we keep chatting that we need more IFTs, at any time of the day, etc., etc...

 

[Whipsaw]

Was considering a move in today to have that extra IFT for April, not going to happen. It still feels like there is another shoe to drop re. energy prices, inflation, rate hikes... :notrust:

 

[Whipsaw]

Good to check the weekly charts... They're only valid once the close is printed on Friday (according to Ira?). Looks like a shooting star is in for last week, topping pattern. I think it was D7 at Grok who said weeklys generally trump the dailies.

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (S&P US) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

 

[Epic]

Yeah.... if the gains hold for today, then Turnaround Tuesday (tomorrow) could be ugly :worried:.

 

[Whipsaw]

Looks like a pennant forming on the SPX, which would indicate further strength; though the MACD divergence is waning, but the stiochs are low which would signal a buy short term. Hmmmmmmmm.

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (S&P US) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi WS, I wondered why you said Slow Sto is low but now I see your chart us using setting 5,5 which is faster than default setting that I use on current charts. I recall using that sometime ago but don't recall where I got it from. Hummm.... My current charts using 14,3setting show Slow Sto is high and starting to drop. I am going to start watching that setting again. I like it! :smile:

 

[Whipsaw]

DBA, it seems the slow stochs were an outlier and the weekly chart carried the day. That chart link is yours from way back. I find those charts easier to read, though the S-fund (DWCPF) doesn't display the current day correctly which really throws it off when making IFT decisions! Where do you change the stoch settings?

 

[Whipsaw]

I might consider an entry today, though the chart seems to indicate more downside, or we're at an interim bottom... will have to wait till tomorrow for a more definitive reading.

 

[LTJPFED]

Had considered a move as well but couldn't hit submit lol

Maybe 1 or 2 more days, we shall see. Best of luck!

 

[Whipsaw]

Daily, charts are looking good for an entry, weekly... eeeeehhhh.... Monthly appears flat with a downward bias longer term (won't have a good read until April prints a close for the month). Was considering a move in, then got distracted by work. ;damnit

 

[felixthecat]

I was thinking only a short stay in the market. The transportation market (in the dumps since second half of 2021) appears to be setting the tone for the latter half of 2022 and first half of 2023. It is probably saying a consumer pullback will happen across the board including housing, auto sales, consumer products, and discretionary spending like RV and travel vacations. Consumers likely to be more picky on supermarket goods as well (I have already started). In any case…if we don’t get a handle on inflation or get some resolution on the Russua/Ukraine conflict…likely will see deeper negative returns this year. Which is why I went Carpe Diem yesterday. Get in and out like a bandit until we get some resolution on these global problems. I still have the silver TSPTalk coin as a reminder this year…”Friends don’t let friends Buy and Hold”. That phrase has been dormant for years but I expect it to be in vogue the remainder of this year and possibly early into next year.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Whipsaw and Felix, Thank you for very good observations! :smile: