Whipsaw's Account Talk

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I'm seeing a long term rising wedge in the SPX, which could drop to 2800 if it breaks down. Earnings season a possible catalyst? thoughts? :notrust:
 
I've was expecting a big decline to occur the last time it dropped from 2880 down to 2350. It dropped, but recovered very nicely. Just goes to show the strength of a market when corporations pay no taxes. I should have gotten in January and stayed there. But to repeat my refrain, I still expect a big drop. Staying out of the daily stuff till I see it happen. I don't want to catch a falling knife. Sometime between now and September I expect 2100.

FS
 
Whipsaw said:
I'm seeing a long term rising wedge in the SPX, which could drop to 2800 if it breaks down. Earnings season a possible catalyst? thoughts? :notrust:
Click to expand...
I am also seeing that Whipsaw....still waiting for a breakout. Netflix reported after the bell Tuesday and I thought that would be great for market since they beat estimates for revenue and earnings per share by a lot! But instead their shares dropped several percent after hours! FBN said technicians were waiting for subscriber numbers to come out....so why the drop Before that news?? Doesnt make sense. :suspicious:
 
Thanks FS and DBA,
SPX 2100? That would take us all the way back to the election! =:-o I've been quite bearish of late, maybe I'm picking up on those vibes. Certainly feels like a melt up right now... Some articles point out buoyancy due to stock buy backs, not a great means of market support as that will end at some point. And Tom's point of overvaluation... the Fed cutting rates an inside tell on the economy? Hmmmmmmm......
 
FogSailing said:
I've was expecting a big decline to occur the last time it dropped from 2880 down to 2350. It dropped, but recovered very nicely. Just goes to show the strength of a market when corporations pay no taxes. I should have gotten in January and stayed there. But to repeat my refrain, I still expect a big drop. Staying out of the daily stuff till I see it happen. I don't want to catch a falling knife. Sometime between now and September I expect 2100.

FS
Click to expand...

No kidding re: strength of market. Unfortunately, I've been too damned conservative all year and have missed most of the gains. It just seems to me that market strength is a result of surplus cash being available and, a lot like QE/Fed manipulation, the values are artificially inflated (or the value of money is deflated relative to stocks) and it can't last forever. At some point, it will come down. The questions are when, how far and how fast. In this environment, as a retiree, I probably will continue to err on the conservative side.
 
Being on the lily pad for such a long time, it is tempting to get back in the game. But at this point, the fear of missing out kicks in and then we make a move we wish we hadn't. Eventually another pullback will occur and that will be the time to strike.

I did notice that most of the people on Autotracker who are sporting 10% plus gains have made on average 2 to 3 moves so far this year. Seems the Buy and Holders are making out quite nicely so far this year...:nuts:

Patiently waiting in the G fund for the next big drop...:D
 
Tried to log into tsp.gov and couldn't get in. Was going to put 50% in the S fund... maybe it was fate? :notrust:
 
Would have caught a nice pop, d@mm!t! Oh well. Risk/reward not great right now, rate of climb has reduced, as has volume, not sure where earnings are going to go (would be good with the economy, just a guess). Oil is back over $60, that caused problems in the market the last time it occurred, high energy costs soaking up consumer cash, profits.
 
Yep, know the feeling. Since I exited to the G Fund on 7 Mar, the F fund is up 1.12%, the C fund is up 6.96%, the S fund is up 5.16% and the I fund is up 4.78%. But hey on the good side I have gained 0.34% sitting in the G fund...Makes a fella want to run out into the middle of traffic don't it...:nuts:
 
Interesting metaphor, RF! Stepping in right now I think may be the equivalent of running out into traffic... but what do I know. I've been spooked by that RSOTC guy. We are very close, if not at the top, of a rising wedge, overbought (Clester just bailed)... markets go down faster than they go up. Dang TSP site wouldn't let me in, or I'd have caught some of yesterday's pop. I'd like to see a drop to 2800, or even 2650. May be wishful thinking. Can the melt up go much longer?
 
Whipsaw said:
...Dang TSP site wouldn't let me in, or I'd have caught some of yesterday's pop. ...
Click to expand...

FYI, Had you entered yesterday, you would have gotten the closing price; not the price at noon.

Generally, all TSP moves execute at the closing price, not an intraday price.
 
Whipsaw said:
Interesting metaphor, RF! Stepping in right now I think may be the equivalent of running out into traffic... but what do I know. I've been spooked by that RSOTC guy. We are very close, if not at the top, of a rising wedge, overbought (Clester just bailed)... markets go down faster than they go up. Dang TSP site wouldn't let me in, or I'd have caught some of yesterday's pop. I'd like to see a drop to 2800, or even 2650. May be wishful thinking. Can the melt up go much longer?
Click to expand...

Of course it can because if there is any hint of the market going down someone with power will parade out in the press and repeat old news that interest rates will stay or will be cut, that China meeting are going great so it has to be lock (this time), liquidity is not a problem, and our favorite stock channel will pump the market because earning are beating the lowered expectations.

Remember in Dec when things looked grim that a stream of high level folks that were paraded out to calm the nerves of inverters and that hasn't stopped since the Fed did a 180. I been sitting collecting the crumbs the G fund is dropping and starting to get the feeling that it will take a major event for it to really go down.
 
Looks like that last one did the trick! I'm back on the Top Posters list ( second from the bottom :laugh: )
 
Holy underwear Batman! I ain't even on the radar of the top posters. As they say, "If you ain't the lead dog, the view is always the same.":rolleyes:
 
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