Whipsaw's Account Talk

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Question now is whether this is a knee-jerk reaction that lasts a few days, or is it sign of further downward action to come??? I'm in 50%.... do I buy the drop or would I be catching a falling knife. I hate the market and this game!!!!! :suspicious: I wanted to exit on Friday as I thought about China (meeting this week and next week), but thought news might not come out for a few more days. Uggh…. I guess not!
 
There's really no way to know when it comes to policy actions... I'm thinking wait a few days and see the tariffs implemented. Ultimately, this will make US labor competitive against chinese labor, making it less cost effective to produce goods in china; which means more investment and jobs in the USA. :D I am coming to the conclusion that betting against this market is a bad bet. I will likely be moving in soon.

For NASA, I'm by no means a lead dog (I don't always trust/act on my instincts), though I do put out what I'm thinking. RF is pretty good for that as well.
 
Don't forget, I think allot of folks here are in premiums, and therefore have a gag order.

Good point, but then again those folks are not being shown on Autotracker...:rolleyes:
​
 
For the normal Auto Tracker https://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_balance_all_non_ps.php
The "S" fund is sitting at #7 and #1 is at 22.23%.

Below is what appears just above the returns.

** This list DOES NOT include the accounts of Premium Service Members **
Premium Service Members can login and view the full list here... Full List

Being a MOD I appear in the Premium list even though I don't belong to a Premium Service. With the Premium folks, they will be scattered all over the Auto Tracker. In the complete Auto Tracker, 4 Premium folks sit in the top 10 spots.
You can see the top 10 Perfomers YTD and the Premium Returns here; https://www.tsptalk.com/ , the C, S & I" funds are the top three funds. I'm not passing on any secrets, I hope, but in the Premium Service Auto Tracker (that looks at all the members) not one of the top 100 had a positive 2018. Out of the top 11 (that's where the "S" fund is) you have zero to 4 IFT's YTD. That's pretty impressive. The "S" fund is at 21.23%. If I had stayed in the "S" fund that is where I would be, but I have made 2 IFT's so far and I'm sitting at #173 and at 19.86%.

So, Whipsaw you are correct, we wouldn't expect the Premium folks to pass on their thinking. But, that doesn't mean the rest of us can't. Just because someone makes a move doesn't mean we will follow but it will give us an idea or a different way to look at things.

Sorry, I'm rambling.
 
Its all good, I just remember a while back not being in the top 3 for the month bounced out by a premium member... meh.

Futures are off again this morning; the strength to overcome the low open yesterday was impressive. Waiting... watching...
 
Other thing is the AutoTracker seems to have lots of folks no longer inputting their moves. While I realize there are lots of buy n holders, the number of people with no moves this year is extraordinary and if you look at their member record most have not had a move in a long time and some with no moves for years. So its kinda hard to really believe in the tracker aside from just knowing your own returns. Would be nice if those folks were cleared out so we can really play...not that I'm anywhere up there. lol... :rolleyes:
Whipsaw said:
Its all good, I just remember a while back not being in the top 3 for the month bounced out by a premium member... meh.

Futures are off again this morning; the strength to overcome the low open yesterday was impressive. Waiting... watching...
Click to expand...
 
Since 2013 I have made less than 15 IFT's. The most has been 3 and that was in 2015 and 2017. This year I have made 2 so far and more than likely only one more back to "S".
Getting our butts kicked today. Sticky pants getting uncomfortable.
 
nasa1974 said:
Since 2013 I have made less than 15 IFT's. The most has been 3 and that was in 2015 and 2017. This year I have made 2 so far and more than likely only one more back to "S".
Getting our butts kicked today. Sticky pants getting uncomfortable.
Click to expand...

Let me know when they're at max stress, would like to jump in at the bottom! :cheesy:
 
I am only 40% in equities... so far my sticky pants are fully deployed. If this continues, I may need to change them... it's not pretty!!! :blackeye:

Question is, will I have the guts to put in the next 50% when the streets are really bloody....ugghhhh….:sick:
 
I had planned to possibly get out tomorrow for a few days but things have gone so well I thought I would watch the trade dealing from the G fund a day early. Hope we get more buying this afternoon. Best of luck to all! :smile:
 
I was tempted to buy today, should have put in something... :-/ I hate the noon cut off. Various analysts are saying lower, looking for a good buy in.
 
Whipsaw said:
I was tempted to buy today, should have put in something... :-/ I hate the noon cut off. Various analysts are saying lower, looking for a good buy in.
Click to expand...

I thought I had a good buy in on Monday. That is until the reversal later that afternoon. After today's action, I am now negative for 2019. It is amazing this uncanny knack I have for entering the market right before a huge drop...:banghead:

I think nasa1974 makes a good point about limiting moves or better yet, sometimes the best strategy is to do nothing at all.
 
ravensfan said:
I thought I had a good buy in on Monday. That is until the reversal later that afternoon. After today's action, I am now negative for 2019. It is amazing this uncanny knack I have for entering the market right before a huge drop...:banghead:

I think nasa1974 makes a good point about limiting moves or better yet, sometimes the best strategy is to do nothing at all.
Click to expand...
I find it best to only enter after a bottom is formed. Then I jump in after the upswing resumes and once I get 1%, I get back to G.
A wise man once said, " never catch a falling knife!"

1% a month = 12% a year. I try to never forget that!
12% can make you rich.

Sent from my XT1585 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
I am only 40% in equities... so far my sticky pants are fully deployed. If this continues, I may need to change them... it's not pretty!!! :blackeye:

Question is, will I have the guts to put in the next 50% when the streets are really bloody....ugghhhh….:sick:
Click to expand...

DBA, LMK when you think we're at a low. MW articles are indicating yesterday's 2% decline was carnage, seems a little hyperbolic to me. Maybe we won't get much lower. Still seems to be much strength out there with the end of day rally yesterday. Futures are off again this morning, we'll see. Being on the lily pad for so long, would really like to see it drop a good ways.
 
Good morning Whipsaw! Not yet.... Tariffs kick in after midnight Thursday night. So, maybe more downside.

Chinese negotiators arrive tomorrow. So who is gonna blink? I am not sure China will....could be a Mexican standoff. In which case, no deal...maybe extend talks some more and possibly market recovers... then again no one knows. Earnings season is about done. Mid-May typically gets soft. So, thinking to exit. Economy is doing great!

hummmm…..do nothing, go in more or exit???? ugghhhhhh


market slightly up right now, but there is plenty of time for some one to get it moving....
 
It happened... Sarah Sanders said There are indications China wants to make a deal....so markets now up100 points on DOW..... lol... the insanity of it all.....:rolleyes:
 
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