Whipsaw's Account Talk

[Whipsaw]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

With the trend into the holiday being down, and hitting what looks like a second test of the lows, I'm optimistic to get at least some of my losses back. At any rate, need to look at a different tack going forward. Here's a good read.
[h=1]Here’s how to tell if stocks will enter a bear market or rise to new highs[/h]https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-to-tell-if-stocks-will-enter-a-bear-market-or-rise-to-new-highs-2018-11-20

 

[Mcqlives]

It may be a very short term bottom. I'm with DBA in waiting and seeing. If you look at a 5day we are still in a narrow(ing) range. On volume that is about 1/3 of where the average is. Fundamentals are overall good but earnings has driven this market for so long. As the Fed increases rates, and the trade war fears continue, the big boys are nervous about throwing their money in. Tech stocks are prime examples of the direct effect this is having. That said, if the Fed has more "normalizing" language in their next statement, and Trump meets with Xi at the G-20 so look for that news around Nov 30/Dec 1. Add in the potential of a government shutdown as of Dec 7 and we have a lot to digest besides just the financial fundamentals this Turkey day!

So...even though most of us celebrate with a dead bird...lets all get with our loved ones, or at least have them in our thoughts and prayers, and try our best to be truly thankful this Turkey day!

Safe travels everyone!!!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

With the trend into the holiday being down, and hitting what looks like a second test of the lows, I'm optimistic to get at least some of my losses back. At any rate, need to look at a different tack going forward. Here's a good read.
[h=1]Here’s how to tell if stocks will enter a bear market or rise to new highs[/h]https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-to-tell-if-stocks-will-enter-a-bear-market-or-rise-to-new-highs-2018-11-20

Good article...Thanks WS! Here is link.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-to-tell-if-stocks-will-enter-a-bear-market-or-rise-to-new-highs-2018-11-20

 

[FogSailing]

Good analysis DBA.
Got my fingers crossed that Tsunami is correct.
FS

 

[Whipsaw]

Futures are UP! Maybe my 'post holiday reversal' prediction will pan out.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Futures are UP! Maybe my 'post holiday reversal' prediction will pan out.

Looks like it is coming true! Woo... hooo…..

 

[Whipsaw]

Would it be irrational to sit tight through the New Year?

 

[ravensfan]

Would it be irrational to sit tight through the New Year?

Hmm??? Interesting thought, but this current trade has been brutal. I just can't see us making up the last two months by the end of the year. But if Trump and Xi can come up with a trade deal, perhaps we get some of it back...

At this point, I'm just hoping to get back into positive territory by years end...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Would it be irrational to sit tight through the New Year?

Just be careful of early to mid-December.... look at a few charts going back a few years. I recall it goes down a bit before Santa comes and he comes later in the month.... maybe somewhere around the 20th??? :nuts: Also I may look at Tom's December seasonality chart when it comes out!!

 

[ravensfan]

Well no matter which way it goes, I need to re-evaluate my risk tolerance. Being retired and within one, maybe two years of making monthly withdrawals, I can ill afford big losses.

Anyone have any thoughts on that?

 

[Mcqlives]

Everyone has different numbers so you will have to estimate your own. I always calculate for a 4-5% draw-down without ever running out of money as mine. What I am basing this on is that even looking at my worst performance years, if I calculate my 3 year averages (going each direction and using the worst year as the "start" point, it works out that I averaged 4% a year. Cumulative over the past 23 I am considerably better than that but I can't calculate all years as the same since the move restrictions kicked in. Caveat is that I am looking at maintaining the balance so I am padding it (by not accounting for depreciation) in case I can't do 4% average gains in the future.

 

[FAAM]

Well, likely shouldn't go much by me, but I'm already "conservative"... only dipping into the other-than-G funds & averaging 2.5-to-4% per year gains. Was thinking of retiring at MRA+2 but that's a year gone so staying till age 62 now. I'm afraid of losing 20%+ and not having time with risk-tolerance to try to make that up.... been expecting another recession / end of the lonnngggg bull for a few years now... then I figure to start DCAing into the CSI funds when/if that happens. Yes, hurts to not make the nice larger gains... but can't keep coming up heads forever (can it?). Good luck figuring our your plan.:dunno::dunno:

 

[ravensfan]

Thanks for the input guys. I appreciate your thoughts. I think my strategy is good, just needs some tweaking with some rules to avoid being 100% invested to preserve capital...As you say FAAM, "it hurts to not make the nice larger gains", but not nearly as much as the pain from larger losses.

Have a great evening...

 

[Whipsaw]

I've alway's appreciated Clester's approach of at 50% invested in a Bull market, and 50% in cash in a Bear market, but haven't tried to run with that.

I'd like to see us climb a wall of worry to the Santa Rally... wishful thinking? It could be mixed up with all the sugar plumbs dancing around. :cheesy:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Definitely agree WS! And especially if the sugar plums are dancing in your head... Like they do in mine!!! Lol....:laugh: Mmmmm.... Sugar plums!!! Hey...lets climb a wall of sugar plums instead :nuts: ...and then lets put a red suit on Trump with a white beard and ask him to say a few nice things to Xi....it could happen!! Believe!

I've alway's appreciated Clester's approach of at 50% invested in a Bull market, and 50% in cash in a Bear market, but haven't tried to run with that.

I'd like to see us climb a wall of worry to the Santa Rally... wishful thinking? It could be mixed up with all the sugar plumbs dancing around. :cheesy:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Ok...but in all seriousness...looks like we are hitting some fear....looking intraday, looks a little weak. Candles forming wicks on top....kinda holding a little steady so looks like market waiting for more news to go on....

 

[Whipsaw]

Boom!

 

[ravensfan]

Ditto!!!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Fed speak made the market go Ho Ho Ho!!! .

 

[Whipsaw]

Fed speak made the market go Ho Ho Ho!!! .

You read it here first folks! DBA makes the call, Santa Rally started today! Thanks DBA!!! :usa2: :arms: