Whipsaw's Account Talk

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I really couldn't make up my mind yesterday whether to stay in or get out. I stayed in. I may regret that decision today. Sticky pants on.
 
Always watching... o.o

RSOTC talks about negative divergence in the market vs the RSI/MACD, which tends to precede a pull back. I've missed a couple of clear entries over the last few weeks being on the road :-/ (I need to make someone else drive...). Price momentum appears to have waned the last couple of days. Looking at the longer term of the C-fund, looks to be in a rising wedge since the low in July. The S broke through resistance, but the stochastics are about maxed out, will the breakout hold?
 
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Yes, I did...lol.......I closed S and moved a bit into C..about two weeks ago thinking it could go higher on the C part. I Was lucky to get it back and A tiny bit. did better on S fund up until my exit back then.. Overall, I think I gained 1% for the month.... Humm... Well at least im going in the right direction... :rolleyes:
 
A bib goose egg for Whipsaw for August. Futures are down but recovering... now looking for that post holiday reversal for some redemption. I'm surprised I'm this bearish... That RSOTC guy keeps pointing out this negative divergence that often proceeds a downturn... :-/
 
Whipsaw said:
A bib goose egg for Whipsaw for August. Futures are down but recovering... now looking for that post holiday reversal for some redemption. I'm surprised I'm this bearish... That RSOTC guy keeps pointing out this negative divergence that often proceeds a downturn... :-/
Click to expand...

Tom's commentary this morning was quite interesting, pertaining to big gainers during the month of August and the resulting pullback in September. I would definitely check it out before making any moves.
 
So, at least this far into September, I'm on the right side of the trade, on the lilly pad! I don't think there is much down side to go before a bounce; futures are down and pointing south, so... will be watching closely this morning.
 
It's probably the pressure of not wanting to be in the market over the weekend. With all that's going on now who knows what the news driven events will do by Monday. I'm more interested in what happens next week than in catching a falling knife today.
 
Good morning...I was watching FBN this morning when jobs numbers came out.. a guy Jon Hilsenrath from WSJ, economic editor, said the Labor Participation Rate was down a bit and so that would cause market concern for inflation and for more Fed action. He thought that was what was bringing the futures down. Futures were down around -20 at 8:30 ET when the jobs numbers came out and it quicly dropped to about -85 on DOW futures after the news was issued.
 
I've been watching the rising support line, the 20 day has been strong, but also the Stochiastics are down around 20 which is an entry signal (up around 80-90, exit). We are in a rising wedge, so this may be short lived.

Futures are UP! :cool:
 
Whipsaw said:
I've been watching the rising support line, the 20 day has been strong, but also the Stochiastics are down around 20 which is an entry signal (up around 80-90, exit). We are in a rising wedge, so this may be short lived.

Futures are UP! :cool:
Click to expand...
HI whipsaw, I see price is above the 20 SMA but came close to it on Friday. I'm not seeing Stochastic around 20... on my charts seeing it around 50. I looked at Full and Slow Stochastics with 14,3 settings. But in any case, I am seeing that today's action is causing an upward slope for MACD and MACD histogram... also intraday starting to see Stochastic cross back up.

hummm…..the last two dips have not gone much lower than 50 and did not reach 20 on Stochastic ….starting to consider entry for today. Will see...I thinik so..yes… I am going to enter.
 
Whipsaw said:
RF, what's telling you to stay on the lily pad?
Click to expand...

A number of things. No positive MACD crossover yet, tariff jitters, seasonality, September being the worst performing month of the year, and my own crystal ball numbers are moving in a negative direction.

One final thing that has my attention, not that it will happen again, but I am keeping an eye on it. Back in January the S&P closed at a new all time high. Nine business days later, the S&P closed at a new low for 2018. That high was broken on 29 August when the S&P closed at 2914.04. Since that new high, the S&P has closed down 5 of the last 7 days.

With that, I'm gonna stay on the lily pad for the time being.
 
Thanks RF, very insightful! So far, so so... positive by a little, hoping to get back to, or near, the top of the channel, then bail for the rest of the month.
 
Well, so far so good on the entry. However it is Turn Around Tuesday and as you know, what we see at noon in not necessarily how we end the day. Hopefully though, it continues up and touches the top.

Good luck!!!:D
 
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