Whipsaw's Account Talk

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Mcqlives said:
Huh! I never run it as a 20 EMA. Any particular reason you do? Maybe four 5 day trading sessions = 20? For some reason (I forget where I heard they are more widely used as indicators for MACD) I look at 12 and 26 day charts as short term indicators. With those time frames, we broke the 12 but the 26 day puts us at 2163 which is coincidentally near the top of the gap waiting to be filled.
Click to expand...

I've been working from DBA's chart links; I modified them to what you suggested which now jibes with you're saying.

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
 
Good Evening Whipsaw and Mcqlives,

Your right.... I like 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 EMA on daily charts (short term indicators). Bigcharts only allows 3 to show on the chart at one time, so I use 10, 20 and 50. But at times, I do look at the 100 and 200daily EMAs especially for crossovers. On the daily chart, I like to use 20 day EMA as it is close to marking the mid-point for Bollinger Bands (BB mid-point is default to 20SMA on Stockcharts). The 10 day is used because I like to track two weeks of earnings and if I recall correctly it always seems a good parameter for looking at price upswings in a nice channel. When price starts to drop out of it I watch more carefully until a price wick touches the 20, then I seriously begin to consider exit.

Then use same parameters in Weeks on weekly chart... for longer outlook. At one time I wanted to use shorter timeframe on weekly charts but then decided to stick with just assessing daily charts. I keep wanting to move to longer timeframe with just a few moves each year and to use Weekly charts alone, but I really don't want to be that detached..... afraid I will lose sight of my funds altogether. That would not be good.

Best Wishes to you all on your investments!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
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Interesting commentary out of the fed meeting... 'confidence in growth' by Yellin pushes bullish action; investors take rate hike comments with grain of salt; stocks swing lower with prospect of rate hikes in September; Dollar surges; Gold futures surge! (should the dollar and gold go in opposite directions?) WTH?

FWIW, the market is down right now, would like to see it keep going that way for a while, maybe into late September as I've seen on some historical charts.

Have a great weekend everyone! :D
 
Mcqlives said:
...I look at 12 and 26 day charts as short term indicators. With those time frames, we broke the 12 but the 26 day puts us at 2163 which is coincidentally near the top of the gap waiting to be filled.
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Gap filled if we can keep going up from here. This may be a fake, though. If it is look for the big gap around 2040ish in the coming weeks.
 
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Whipsaw,

Just wanted to throw my two cents into the possibility of a rate hike in September. In my opinion, it ain't gonna happen. My reasoning for that is, look at what happened to the markets back in January after a .25% increase in December.

I think if rates were raised again and with the same market reaction as in January, it would bode well for Donald Trump as Hillary Clinton has been labeled as " a third term of Obama. I've read a number of articles stating that economists feel that a Hillary Clinton Presidency would be better for the economy than Donald Trump. Makes me wonder if they have already covered their bets by donating to the Clinton Foundation so that President Hillary can do wonderful things for them. After all Trump has said that Hillary is a bought and paid for candidate and they would be the ones expecting a quid pro quo.

With that said, it is my opinion that we will not see a rate hike in September and if Hillary wins in November, no rate hike in December. Of course, if "The Donald" does manage to pull out the win, the FED will be beside themselves getting those rates raised.

Again, this is just my opinion and I wouldn't be surprised if it plays out that way...

Have a great weekend.

P.S. I'm getting monkey butt sitting in the G Fund for as long as I have... :pat:
 
I was out of pocket yesterday... good commentary out there on the market; I'm still mostly on the side lines, my contributions go to the S-Fund, so, after several weeks its starting to stack up. I'm sure I've made a few bucks since June. My 12 mo. PIP is 7.49%, not too shabby.
 
Whipsaw said:
I was out of pocket yesterday... good commentary out there on the market; I'm still mostly on the side lines, my contributions go to the S-Fund, so, after several weeks its starting to stack up. I'm sure I've made a few bucks since June. My 12 mo. PIP is 7.49%, not too shabby.
Click to expand...

I was wondering where you've been. Thought maybe you decided to stop posting for awhile. Congrats on that 12 month PIP. That's awesome! Mine is not so good having brought up the rear on the ark last year. In fact, it's to embarrassing to mention...:worried:

Anyways, welcome back!!!:banana:
 
I think we have arrived at short SQUEEEEEEEEEEZE territory again WS. Lots of people are expecting a pullback to 2090 today. I felt it was a coin flip. I'm now expecting a rise to roughly the 2142-2152 area. Who knows the reasons why (but you can bet smart money, the PPT, big oil, and central banks are involved). I am of a mind that from wherever the squeeze ends, we're heading to 1820 region before we have a major rebound. This is Options Expiration week so possibly this is the positive week for September. Also, who knows what the Fed will say today. The smart money could be taking the market up just to take it down to 2090 and catch the bulls sleeping. I'm out of IFTs till October so just sitting peacefully in G Fund. All the best!

FS
 
More folks buying in on the AT with today's run down, very few leaving the pool... holding steady... afternoon recovery me hopes...
 
I'm probably wrong but I think if the market doesn't bounce at the 2116 pivot, we're headed to 2090. If we head there, its seems like the market will retrace from that point to 2150 (the market is still so strong) but that will probably be next week leading up to the Fed announcement. if the Fed raises rates, I expect a selloff to the 2040 area. I don't think we'll see another major decline until after the election. If the Pubs win, the market likely sells off because the "free money" just dried up and we will have to deal with a liquidity issue. I still think that 2250 to 2300 is possible by December 31st so we have some interesting waves to surf over the next 16 weeks.

One of analysts I read had this to say this morning ". The drop Friday was significant but the bullishness is very strong right now which makes me think this correction isn't over. The MACD on the weekly DJIA and S&P500 charts crossed downward (with the histogram crossing below the line) last week, which usually means there is more selling to come. Weekly sell cycles can last a while (up to 6 to 8 weeks). They can also kick off monthly sell cycles. Not only has the weekly MACD and RSI turned negative but the daily and hourly -div have been trending negative for some time. The longer these negative divergences exist the more severe a decline could be."

It's hard not to love this stuff....Best of luck to you in your investing.

View attachment 39411

FS
 
Yep, FS, I think a touch of the lower wedge trend line as shown nicely here on Springheel Jack's chart should end this decline. Then comes a run to new highs to finish off the entire bull market since 2009...

http://content.screencast.com/users...b-4269-b6ae-d68170d28a24/160913 SPX 60min.png

I'm still looking for the right day to jump back in this week. It might be tomorrow, depending on how things look in the morning.

And how far will the next rally go? I expect that Peter Eliades trend line will be the ceiling, so about 2230ish...
Consensus Financial Commentary
 
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Would have been great to catch yesterday's low for my second deployment of cash, was looking at a post brexit run up; derailed by oil of course. Futures are UP! :D
 
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