Whipsaw's Account Talk

[driz]

Here are some dates to keep in mind coming up. This was in a yahoo article this morning. I can't find it now but here are the dates of the Fed's events upcoming. This is the dates I chopped out to send to a friend. You just know these are likely to inspire some sort of downward movement in this environment. It's something to keep in mind anyways.

" At this moment of fragility,
raising rates risks tipping some part of the financial system into
crisis, with unpredictable and dangerous results."
Markets,
though, will not have to wait until the September 16-17 policy meeting
for the central bank's views on monetary policy. The Fed holds its
annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Thursday and Friday.
Yellen will be absent, but Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, a close Yellen
ally who is not shy about making his views known, will preside over the
meeting.

 

[Whipsaw]

Here are some dates to keep in mind coming up. This was in a yahoo article this morning. I can't find it now but here are the dates of the Fed's events upcoming. This is the dates I chopped out to send to a friend. You just know these are likely to inspire some sort of downward movement in this environment. It's something to keep in mind anyways.

" At this moment of fragility,
raising rates risks tipping some part of the financial system into
crisis, with unpredictable and dangerous results."
Markets,
though, will not have to wait until the September 16-17 policy meeting
for the central bank's views on monetary policy. The Fed holds its
annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Thursday and Friday.
Yellen will be absent, but Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, a close Yellen
ally who is not shy about making his views known, will preside over the
meeting.

Right on! Here is the Yahoo article, there are several commenting on the same:
Market turmoil poses new challenge to Fed's rate plans - Yahoo News

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/24/summers-fed-could-be-making-a-dangerous-mistake.html

Market turmoil may delay Fed rate hike - Zachary Warmbrodt and Jon Prior - POLITICO

 

[Whipsaw]

~ 25 or so moving into equities on the AT...

 

[Whipsaw]

Was just seconds away from putting in a 40% position... maybe just as well.

Looks like it was just as well I didn't get in; didn't see that close coming! All bets are off. :worried:

 

[Whipsaw]

Check out Ravensfan's thread for my latest thoughts on the way ahead... appreciate any comments.

 

[Whipsaw]

From RF's thread... Now to figure out what to do next... I don't want to make a short play for consolidation movements and get shut out for an entire month and miss the big run up. Thinking of DCA-ing into the market, moving in with ~40% this week, and then over the next month a couple more moves in and sitting on that for quite a while with some rebalancing... thoughts?

Fairly balanced article on the state of affairs...

The market correction explained

 

[Whipsaw]

ITF 15% C, 15% S, COB... buying some on sale!

 

[OBXTrader]

Something about the anemic market action today and bond yields rising makes me think traders are now shifting back to a September FOMC rate increase. Just a nagging feeling and I don't know if that's good or bad. Makes me sit on my hands. Tough call.

ITF 15% C, 15% S, COB... buying some on sale!

 

[Whipsaw]

Moving slowly... trying to work in a short to mid time horizon; going to let this allocation bounce around for a while, will grab up somemore if we go lower. If we move up with some conviction, will throw in the rest.

 

[FogSailing]

I thought that perhaps some of the retracement was due to investors checking out of the market but volume is still low...so I'm guessing that we're still in a "testing the "immediate" bottom" situation. I hope the "bounce" holds today. I'm not seeing this a rally.

FS

 

[Whipsaw]

Holy noon headfake, Batman! I thought I was going to get a nice low price to get in, but hey, futures are UP! (#5 on the AT was fun while it lasted...)

 

[FogSailing]

You have to find the humor in it WS. The market continually surprises. BTW, I'd say you were doing F#####in Great! Congrats on not getting sucked in.

FS

 

[ravensfan]

Yeah, what FS said! I could be the poster child for what not to do this month...:nuts:

 

[Valkyrie]

a nice low price to get in, (#5 on the AT was fun while it lasted...)

why does that matter? the % gain is on the amount of money in fund not on the # of shares. # of shares mean nothing in this TSP system. its all about the money.

 

[Whipsaw]

why does that matter? the % gain is on the amount of money in fund not on the # of shares. # of shares mean nothing in this TSP system. its all about the money.

Shares * Share Price = Money. As share price increases, multiplied by the # of shares equates to overall value. When you sell high and buy low, you are increasing the number of shares held, which then hopefully increase in value. Rinse, repeat.

 

[Valkyrie]

for stocks I agree but not the TSP system. I can have 10k or 20k of shares both total valued at $50k. the daily % gain is on the $50k, not the shares. the shares mean nothing. we make money on how much we have in a fund, not how many shares I own. the % gain or loss is on the money not the shares. its not the stock market system. for yrs the tsp system never showed shares it was always just % gain or lost.
don't mean to pick on u, just think a lot of members have been misguided and leave a lot of % gains on the table waiting for a lower price to buy in.
Maybe I'm not explaining it clearly. well I'll let others debate it now.

 

[Whipsaw]

I like your signature, BTW. Look at it this way... If all your money is in the G fund you have X number of shares, it doesn't lose value, or increase very much (no fluctuation). When you move money from G to another fund, i.e. S or C, the value converts to a different number of shares valued at the closing price for that day. Assuming those shares increase in value and you go back to the G fund, you will end up with more shares in the G fund than you had before. If a few weeks later, the S and C funds decrease in value, lower than when you sold them, if you move back into the C & S, you will have more shares than before. When you make your monthy contributions, you are buying shares, go to the TSP.gov site, the 'share' prices are listed there.

Anyone else want to jump in? :cheesy:

 

[Cactus]

We only make money on the change in price on our fund. It's not like we get the dividends for each share. If I get more or less shares makes no difference. It's the amount it went up/down that counts. 1% is 1% whether I have 1000 shares at $10 each or 2000 shares at $5 each.

 

[userque]

Technically, it can be looked at both ways.

Share-wise:

"Last month I sold all of my S-Fund shares at $20, today, I bought them back at $15!"

Percentage-wise:

"Last month I IFT'd out of the S-Fund, today, I got back in after it was down 25% from where I sold!"

'Percents' are a more concise way to view things. Fewer numbers are needed to convey the same information. Less verbiage as well.

Mainly, in order for a reader to compare the Share-wise example with their own performance, they would have to take the time and effort to convert the "share" verbiage into percentages. So, IMO, percentages are easier for the reader to utilize.

 

[Whipsaw]

Futures are down... Monday is the last opportunity to use any August IFTs. Maybe another buying opportunity if there is a significant decline.