Whipsaw's Account Talk

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Futures are down ~ 2.5%, will this bounce or continue to slide over the next few days? Some comments on the board that we're entering a bear market... will have to watch this closely and potentially change my strategy of DCAing into the lows to dip buys and rally sells. Buy low, avoid capitulation (locking in a loss by selling), sell high (at least higher than you bought in at), stand still to move fast (patience, make deliberat moves)...
 
Whipsaw said:
New buying opportunities... would like to get closer to the bottom... any calls on a bottom?
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JTH says he likes 1930 (50% retrace) - sounds hopeful - that higher lows are coming. But I don't think recovery is that close, so I am looking at previous low or even intraday low near the old Oct2014 level. Below that, I don wanna tink aboudit Lucy.
 
Another fantastic TSP head-fake today. I was contemplating a move based on the morning action, of course, now I'm thinking a different move based on the afternoon. Thankfully I chose to do nothing (still a choice), and will reassess... the bottom may be in? Who's still looking for another leg down?

The talking heads at the link talking stabilization; china still trending down, the Friday August jobs report (if down, fed rates don't go up; if up, chances up of a fed rate hike; the china August growth numbers next week if up stable, down not so much.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/02/us-stocks-open-higher-amid-data-attempt-bounce-from-selloff.html
 
Hi Whipsaw, I do not see true bottom in sight....just lower highs and lower lows...downtrend. My strategy IF I get in would be short 2-3 day play and not jumping in without a lot more pain and blood in streets, and fingers crossed. :(

Would expect up day tomorrow, and by Monday-Tuesday more drops as it seems China likes to drop its bombs on Monday and Tuesday. ;swear
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Hi Whipsaw, I do not see true bottom in sight....just lower highs and lower lows...downtrend. My strategy IF I get in would be short 2-3 day play and not jumping in without a lot more pain and blood in streets, and fingers crossed. :(

Would expect up day tomorrow, and by Monday-Tuesday more drops as it seems China likes to drop its bombs on Monday and Tuesday. ;swear
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DBA, thanks! Allways appreciate your insight. I may move out this afternoon (futures are up, should be posative on the last buy); consensus on the board seems to be more downside action, though the talkings heads paint a rosier picture (more media manipulation? :suspicious: ). If I make the IFT, I'll have one more move in Sep. to get in... hmmmm....
 
There was good money yesterday - maybe more gains today? But I would rather wait - we will see more volatility and a bottom is coming with lower prices.
 
FAB1 said:
There was good money yesterday - maybe more gains today? But I would rather wait - we will see more volatility and a bottom is coming with lower prices.
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C and S are up 1% so far this morning; according to Tsunami rally could continue to 2030ish. I may wait on a move until tomorrow (sure wish I had gone 100% vice 30% last week).
 
"Could" is the important word. It also could peak out here in the 1970s and head down hard into next week to new lows. I've already put in my IFT to move to 100% G today, but still "could" cancel it if there's another strong move up to 1980 in the next hour....but for the moment a stat posted by a tech guru yesterday has me leaning to the cautious side...that on Tuesday the TRIN closed at > 4.8, and then the next day the market was up...and in the past 5 times that's ever happened then 100% of those times, 5 out of 5, the market then plummeted and closed below the previous recent low (in this case 1903) within a week. So that argues for a peak today then a sharp fall into next week. Hmm. In the mean time jobs reports Friday's are usually bullish, arguing for the continuing of this rally into the 2030's... I'm close to retirement eligibility (next June), so that plays into my conservative decision to bail out today...but it looks like there could be a great buying opportunity coming up in a week or so for those still with IFT's. Who knows, I sure don't. I suppose 1993 (the last peak) is the key level here.

In more important news, when the heck is that Pac-12 Network and AT&T/DirecTV deal going to be announced? I want to watch my alma mater get clobbered ever Saturday this year! Go Cougs!!
 
Tsunami said:
"Could" is the important word. It also could peak out here in the 1970s and head down hard into next week to new lows. I've already put in my IFT to move to 100% G today, but still "could" cancel it if there's another strong move up to 1980 in the next hour....but for the moment a stat posted by a tech guru yesterday has me leaning to the cautious side...that on Tuesday the TRIN closed at > 4.8, and then the next day the market was up...and in the past 5 times that's ever happened then 100% of those times, 5 out of 5, the market then plummeted and closed below the previous recent low (in this case 1903) within a week. So that argues for a peak today then a sharp fall into next week. Hmm. In the mean time jobs reports Friday's are usually bullish, arguing for the continuing of this rally into the 2030's... I'm close to retirement eligibility (next June), so that plays into my conservative decision to bail out today...but it looks like there could be a great buying opportunity coming up in a week or so for those still with IFT's. Who knows, I sure don't. I suppose 1993 (the last peak) is the key level here.

In more important news, when the heck is that Pac-12 Network and AT&T/DirecTV deal going to be announced? I want to watch my alma mater get clobbered ever Saturday this year! Go Cougs!!
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Tsunami! Thanks! I put in 30% at ~ 1980 last week expecting lower prices, my plan was to let it ride and increase my position if/when it goes down. Looks like we have hit some resistance at SPX 1975.
 
Whipsaw said:
Tsunami! Thanks! I put in 30% at ~ 1980 last week expecting lower prices, my plan was to let it ride and increase my position if/when it goes down. Looks like we have hit some resistance at SPX 1975.
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You're welcome. I need to be careful to stop posting as if I know what I'm talking about LOL. I'm playing it safe and going to G today, hoping today's gains hold into the close.
 
Tsunami said:
"Could" is the important word. It also could peak out here in the 1970s and head down hard into next week to new lows. I've already put in my IFT to move to 100% G today, but still "could" cancel it if there's another strong move up to 1980 in the next hour....but for the moment a stat posted by a tech guru yesterday has me leaning to the cautious side...that on Tuesday the TRIN closed at > 4.8, and then the next day the market was up...and in the past 5 times that's ever happened then 100% of those times, 5 out of 5, the market then plummeted and closed below the previous recent low (in this case 1903) within a week. So that argues for a peak today then a sharp fall into next week. Hmm. In the mean time jobs reports Friday's are usually bullish, arguing for the continuing of this rally into the 2030's... I'm close to retirement eligibility (next June), so that plays into my conservative decision to bail out today...but it looks like there could be a great buying opportunity coming up in a week or so for those still with IFT's. Who knows, I sure don't. I suppose 1993 (the last peak) is the key level here.

In more important news, when the heck is that Pac-12 Network and AT&T/DirecTV deal going to be announced? I want to watch my alma mater get clobbered ever Saturday this year! Go Cougs!!
Click to expand...

The fear is strong - I could hardly believe my ears when they started talking about "blood moons" & shemitah at our church last week. I don't take much stock in that stuff, every couple of years the "end of the world is nigh" but that along with the global market uncertainity is going to assure us this - some wild rides of volatility

the trick will be catching the waves UP and bailing before the "wipe-out"! Kowabunga! :banana:
 
Futures are down ahead of the jobs report... maybe another buying opportunity? Post holiday seasonality is up, potentially a spot to take profits. Going that rout would put me out of IFTs mid-month, if I can get a couple percentage points it may be worth it.
 
That is exactly what I am thinking. A quick IN and OUT...
Whipsaw said:
Futures are down ahead of the jobs report... maybe another buying opportunity? Post holiday seasonality is up, potentially a spot to take profits. Going that rout would put me out of IFTs mid-month, if I can get a couple percentage points it may be worth it.
Click to expand...
 
I have an opportunity to jump out today and make a small gain on my buy in last month. That is assuming we go back and test the lows. 1 IFT left if I make this move.
 
Whipsaw said:
I have an opportunity to jump out today and make a small gain on my buy in last month. That is assuming we go back and test the lows. 1 IFT left if I make this move.
Click to expand...

Assuming the market doesn't sell off at 12:01, I will have made a few denaro on this on... setting up for a test of the lows.

100% G COB
 
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