Whipsaw's Account Talk

[JTH]

Here is an interesting take on potential volatility, a Dow top in with downside to 14000, any thoughts on this?

Market Report: Dow Industrials Top in Place? | Nouf | Safehaven.com

This would be the equivalent of the S&P 500 pulling back to the late 2007 high of 1490. By then we would have been under the 200 SMA long enough for folks to have already declared a bear market. My own personal bear-market meter resides with the 500 SMA which currently sits at 1540.


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[Khotso]

This would be the equivalent of the S&P 500 pulling back to the late 2007 high of 1490. By then we would have been under the 200 SMA long enough for folks to have already declared a bear market. My own personal bear-market meter resides with the 500 SMA which currently sits at 1540.


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Out of curiosity JTH, what do you mean when you say "bear market meter"? Are you saying when the 200 day SMA crosses below the 500 day or do you mean it as a potential price target?

 

[JTH]

Out of curiosity JTH, what do you mean when you say "bear market meter"? Are you saying when the 200 day SMA crosses below the 500 day or do you mean it as a potential price target?

A long long time ago in a galaxy far far away, through a mulititude of scans under various timeframes, I determined that the most profitable single moving average to buy and sell under was the 493rd SMA. I rounded it off to 500 which wasn't far behind on the list, and decided this was a good bear-market-meter for the long-term invester.

 

[Khotso]

A long long time ago in a galaxy far far away, through a mulititude of scans under various timeframes, I determined that the most profitable single moving average to buy and sell under was the 493rd SMA. I rounded it off to 500 which wasn't far behind on the list, and decided this was a good bear-market-meter for the long-term invester.

Haha. I like that ... 493rd SMA! Well, I'm no longer a long term investor, but I think I'll hold in S fund for another day at least. Thanks sir!

 

[Whipsaw]

Thanks Guys! I'm going to sit tight for the next week or so, it looks like we're approaching the top of trading channel and there may be some post holiday reveral (thank JTH, Bquat), and the 1929 chart is still making the rounds (thanks Tsunami) Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

I think jumping in here wouldn't be prudent, as I posted earlier I've stayed too long at the fair; will look for the next move down (next week?) and try to make a move in then. I've dropped ~ 50 spots on the tracker from a high of around 144. C'est la vie!

 

[Whipsaw]

Bummed I missed this last run up. Looking for some downward movement for a new entry, saw some nonsense about Soros betting on a market downturn... There is this article on elliot wave analysis predicting some weakness ahead.

AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Resistance Around 0.9080 - 0.9170 | Gregor Horvat | Safehaven.com

Who's still spooked by the 1929 chart?

 

[JTH]

Bummed I missed this last run up. Looking for some downward movement for a new entry, saw some nonsense about Soros betting on a market downturn... There is this article on elliot wave analysis predicting some weakness ahead.

AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Resistance Around 0.9080 - 0.9170 | Gregor Horvat | Safehaven.com

Who's still spooked by the 1929 chart?

It wadn't too hard to miss that last runup, we had a lower low so folks weren't so inclined to take the risk to jump in. Better money missed than money lost.

 

[Cactus]

It wadn't too hard to miss that last runup, we had a lower low so folks weren't so inclined to take the risk to jump in. Better money missed than money lost.

... Or as in my case both!

 

[Whipsaw]

Folks are moving to the lillypad, I'm getting back into alignment... :worried:

"Even if you're on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there." :cheesy:

 

[Cactus]

"Even if you're on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there." :cheesy:

I really like that. I'm going to have to remember that one. It'd make a good sig. line, don't you think?

 

[Whipsaw]

Not much to post of late, been busy getting my Exploder fixed after a hit and run on Valentines day... that week my daughter moved back into the house after a broken engagement, just finished painting out her room Weather sent us home early from work Now that I'm on the right side of the trade again, will certainly be more decisive this time w/o all the distractions. Looking for a good entry point!

 

[Whipsaw]

Yawn... -.- its official, there is uncertainty in the market: Stock Trading Alert: Short-Term Uncertainty As Indexes Fluctuate Near Record Highs | Paul Rejczak | Safehaven.com I want to hear that flushing sound again so I can get a good entry point... :suspicious:

 

[Whipsaw]

I feel an IFT coming on... may take a 50% position How low will it go? BT thinks we head back up tomorrow...

 

[BichonFreeze]

How low will it go? BT thinks we head back up tomorrow...

Gosh, I hope it doesn't go much lower. I bought in at 1843. I'd like it to go up for the next few months before I take out my home loan. It can plunge at that point so I can buy in at lower shares. =D

 

[ravensfan]

I feel an IFT coming on... may take a 50% position How low will it go? BT thinks we head back up tomorrow...

BT always thinks that...

 

[Whipsaw]

Auto Tracker question... I have my contributions going in at 100% S, so as I cool my heels on the lilly pad with one foot in the F pond, I've accumulated ~ 2% in the S fund. I'm guessing these gains are negligable, but hey, they may mean a few spots higher in the list. Thoughts?

 

[userque]

Auto Tracker question... I have my contributions going in at 100% S, so as I cool my heels on the lilly pad with one foot in the F pond, I've accumulated ~ 2% in the S fund. I'm guessing these gains are negligable, but hey, they may mean a few spots higher in the list. Thoughts?

If by 'the list,' you mean the autotracker, then I don't believe the list is affected by your real contributions. If you are only in G and F on the tracker, then the list is unaware of anything else.

Also, depending on a few other factors not mentioned in your post, that 2 % could be only contributions...and they could actually be losing, even though they make up 2 % of your account.

 

[Cactus]

Personally I don't think it's worth it. The AT reflects your IFT decisions -- not your account balance. Let the TSP take care of that for you. I always have my contributions go into the equity funds as a kind of dollar cost averaging thing. They will get merged with the rest of your funds in the next IFT.

 

[craigerv]

I agree with Cactus, the AT to me is supposed to represent your decisions for reallocation. That way we can compare our decisions against others on the list. If you're trying to always keep your account updated to reflect your actual TSP account you'd end up using IFTs just to 'fix' your allocation.

 

[Whipsaw]

Thanks guys, kind of what I was thinking... Yes, the DCA approach for contributions, then rolling into the next reallocation, that's the ticket!