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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Whipsaw's Account Talk
- Thread starter Whipsaw
- Start date
Whipsaw reporting from the sub-basement... ;damnit Futures are UP!
Maybe I can get my account balance moving in the right direction... :rippedhand:
Everything looked good yesterday until about the last hour.
Rod
Well-known member
IKR? I looked at DWCPF around 1450 and it was up close to 1%. I looked at it again about 10 min later only to see the plunge. Ticked me off because it was doing so good all day long.
Monday, MRNA rallies the market.
Tuesday, MRNA rattles the market.
Mr. Market always reacts to the headlines before digging into the meat of them.
Whipsaw
Well-known member
Confession: My major shortcoming - neglecting to set a stop. While we can't put in stop on a trade in the TSP site, we can have a mental stop. If breached, bail to G, fall back and regroup. Hopefully others can learn from my mistake (maybe I'm the only one? :embarrest: ). So, for DWCPF, 1150 would be a point to bail if breached, as there is support there, and would be a significant change in direction, busting the lower side of the channel... thoughts?
ravensfan
Well-known member
I'm in the same boat brother. Add to that riding the drop all the way down and then bailing at or near the bottom. Then the real frustrating part is not re-engaging when the market bounces back and missing the opportunity to regain those losses. I think for myself, greed keeps me in a declining market and fear keeps me out of a rising market. DBA is very good at getting out when things are not going well and may throw her two cents into the conversation. I think we can all learn something from setting personal stops no matter which way the market is moving.
Good luck with your latest trade!
ravensfan
Well-known member
So Whipsaw, you've got my attention about these stops. DWCPF at 1150, puts it just above the 50 DMA. Seems a long way to go for a stop considering DWCPF closed at 1305 today. I was thinking more along the lines of a percentage, say if it drops 2% then bail or maybe if it drops two days in a row, bail. I admit, I am not up on putting in stops and should probably educate myself, so any thoughts on the subject you want to share would be most appreciated.
P.S. We did good today. Let's hope we get more of the same tomorrow.
ravensfan
Well-known member
So I did a little reading on stops this evening (that's why there's no Best Fund/Worst Fund this evening). There were a number of examples of how to set a stop. One particularly interested me stating a stop could be initiated when the days closing price fell below the 10 day moving average. Long ago, I created a spreadsheet that tracks the 10, 20, 50 and 100 day moving average as well as the days closing price for F, C, S and I funds. It's simple, easy and something I am already tracking so it is really a no brainer.
As you know, I am now with a premium service, but there is nothing that says I must follow the signals provided. Buy and sell signals are an integral part of being with a premium service, but there is great value in the additional commentary provided. I think I could be okay with going that route for awhile to see how it works out.
With that said, this evening the closing price for the S Fund (DWCPF) was 1305.64. According to my spreadsheet the 10 day moving average is 1259.00. That means I'm staying in for now.:nuts:
Back a few years ago when a bunch of us were talking about "stops" we knew with only 2 IFT's a month that it would be difficult. The conversation was mostly around personal "stops", a dollar number or a percentage. FOMO was always the gorilla in the room though when it came to making a decision.
Whipsaw
Well-known member
I was looking at 1150 as it was at support, and somewhat below where I thought a dip would reach, so I would be less likely to prematurely bail and see the market keep trucking on up for the rest of the month. Assumption being if it goes that far south, it will likely go farther.
Whipsaw
Well-known member
So... the market is at resistance, potential for a post holiday reversal, rising wedge which tend to break down, OC pointed out 'flat top, market drops' and his omni turned red; RWTrader indicator has the market in the 'bullish reversal zone,' stochs are maxed out which had generally proceeded weakness, rising tensions with China in the news. In striking distance for new IFTs after next week. I can go to G with one move, or to F and then G... I'm thinking a move to the F-Train for the 4 days of next week. Thoughts?
rangerray
Well-known member
The rally is definitely weakening as it flaunts with the 200-day average.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Market is just maddening! It's like a psycho killer.... entry point?????
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Still positive but falling. It's the last hour of trading that is so frustrating.
ravensfan
Well-known member
I decided to stay in last week based mostly on the 13 dma remaining above the 20 dma. Of course I am only 25% S fund, not having the confidence to buy in more when I entered the market, so there's a regret, but hey happy to have some skin in the game.Similar threads
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