11/18/25
Stocks did not follow the script on Monday. Last week they didn't miss a beat, but yesterday was "supposed to be" a follow through rally from Friday's positive reversal day. Instead, the bears flipped the script and the bulls sat on the sidelines and let them. There was some moderate late buying, which ironically is also different from the recent script.
I posted this chart last week and it had been uncanny how the market followed this pattern this year and more so in recent months. But of course as soon as I, and many others, started to post this data, the market decided to go in a different direction yesterday. Last week it was fairly precise. This week? Where's our Monday rally?
The CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a new low for this pullback showing that investors seem to be getting close to panic mode, although trading volume doesn't show that. If we're just talking about the S&P 500 that would be unusual since the index is really not that far off of its all time high made in late October.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
I won't ignore it because it is staring us right in the face, but I have to admit that I am not fully embracing the whole Hindenburg Omen signals because I have been fooled by them before. That could mean this one is real, if you know what I mean. The market loves to get us leaning the wrong way.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down sharply yesterday - closing modestly off its lows of the day, but well off the highs and it failed again at the 30-day average again. It closed below the 50-day average and the bottom of its trading channel, so there's a technical warning.
The 10-year Treasury Yield slipped but the bull flag breakout is still valid, so the upside in yields has the momentum, but we will get some jobs data on Thursday that could shake things up.
The dollar may have also broke above a bull flag, but this is a little less textbook since the flag is sloped sharply lower. There is an open gap above 28.3 that could be an upside target.
That dollar chart, the fundamental outlook for the dollar, and the I-fund caused me to make a rookie mistake this month -- at least so far. As our Plus subscribers know, I used one of our precious IFT's (allocation change, transfer, transaction - whatever the TSP is calling it these days), to move some money from the S-fund into the I-fund earlier in the month. While that turned out to be an OK decision because of how poorly the S-fund has done since, it left me with just one IFT left in November. As much as I felt the pain and saw the breakdowns in some of the charts, I didn't want to use that second IFT to sell anything because that would force me out for the rest of the month because of that 2 IFT limit.
My outlook has been that the S&P 500 will be over 7000 by the end of the year, however we get there. I had thought that maybe the October volatility was the shake out that the market needed after those seasonally unexpected gains in August and September, but clearly the mid-month seasonal weakness in November is still one of the prices we have to pay to get to 7000+ by the end of December. This is likely the that shake out phase to get more bulls to turn and lean the wrong way.
Of course the Hindenburg Omens are concerning me, as is every other negative headline, but the market doesn't usually make it that easy for us. The rise in Fear and the warnings are getting priced in, and it's a matter of what stage we are in for this pullback. Once everybody is scared out, the market will likely start the end of year rally.
With Nvidia's earnings on deck tomorrow (Wednesday) after the close, we may find out if this sell off has been overdone, or if they are going to put another nail in the coffin in the A-I trade.
As I mentioned above, we are scheduled to get a jobs report on Thursday morning of this week. I believe this will be the delayed September data, because of the shutdown.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) seems to be 200-day average bound, so after holding above that 50-day average for months, it may not take long to from the 50 to the 200-day average. Technical analysis on this chart isn't quite as clean as the S&P 500. This chart will, in general, follow the direction of the S&P 500, but because of the high beta stocks in this index, the swings will be wider. It's part of the high risk / high reward that this fund has given us over the years.
ACWX (I-fund) was down sharply and it is now testing support. It's the last TSP stock fund above its 50-day average after the C-fund closed below it yesterday. The dollar started turning up again, so there could be a headwind if that trend continues.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up slightly but it closed at the lows of the day. We are getting a ton of data and information this week that could really shake up the bond market, so buckle up.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks did not follow the script on Monday. Last week they didn't miss a beat, but yesterday was "supposed to be" a follow through rally from Friday's positive reversal day. Instead, the bears flipped the script and the bulls sat on the sidelines and let them. There was some moderate late buying, which ironically is also different from the recent script.
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I posted this chart last week and it had been uncanny how the market followed this pattern this year and more so in recent months. But of course as soon as I, and many others, started to post this data, the market decided to go in a different direction yesterday. Last week it was fairly precise. This week? Where's our Monday rally?
The CNN Fear & Greed Index hit a new low for this pullback showing that investors seem to be getting close to panic mode, although trading volume doesn't show that. If we're just talking about the S&P 500 that would be unusual since the index is really not that far off of its all time high made in late October.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
I won't ignore it because it is staring us right in the face, but I have to admit that I am not fully embracing the whole Hindenburg Omen signals because I have been fooled by them before. That could mean this one is real, if you know what I mean. The market loves to get us leaning the wrong way.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down sharply yesterday - closing modestly off its lows of the day, but well off the highs and it failed again at the 30-day average again. It closed below the 50-day average and the bottom of its trading channel, so there's a technical warning.
The 10-year Treasury Yield slipped but the bull flag breakout is still valid, so the upside in yields has the momentum, but we will get some jobs data on Thursday that could shake things up.
The dollar may have also broke above a bull flag, but this is a little less textbook since the flag is sloped sharply lower. There is an open gap above 28.3 that could be an upside target.
That dollar chart, the fundamental outlook for the dollar, and the I-fund caused me to make a rookie mistake this month -- at least so far. As our Plus subscribers know, I used one of our precious IFT's (allocation change, transfer, transaction - whatever the TSP is calling it these days), to move some money from the S-fund into the I-fund earlier in the month. While that turned out to be an OK decision because of how poorly the S-fund has done since, it left me with just one IFT left in November. As much as I felt the pain and saw the breakdowns in some of the charts, I didn't want to use that second IFT to sell anything because that would force me out for the rest of the month because of that 2 IFT limit.
My outlook has been that the S&P 500 will be over 7000 by the end of the year, however we get there. I had thought that maybe the October volatility was the shake out that the market needed after those seasonally unexpected gains in August and September, but clearly the mid-month seasonal weakness in November is still one of the prices we have to pay to get to 7000+ by the end of December. This is likely the that shake out phase to get more bulls to turn and lean the wrong way.
Of course the Hindenburg Omens are concerning me, as is every other negative headline, but the market doesn't usually make it that easy for us. The rise in Fear and the warnings are getting priced in, and it's a matter of what stage we are in for this pullback. Once everybody is scared out, the market will likely start the end of year rally.
With Nvidia's earnings on deck tomorrow (Wednesday) after the close, we may find out if this sell off has been overdone, or if they are going to put another nail in the coffin in the A-I trade.
As I mentioned above, we are scheduled to get a jobs report on Thursday morning of this week. I believe this will be the delayed September data, because of the shutdown.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) seems to be 200-day average bound, so after holding above that 50-day average for months, it may not take long to from the 50 to the 200-day average. Technical analysis on this chart isn't quite as clean as the S&P 500. This chart will, in general, follow the direction of the S&P 500, but because of the high beta stocks in this index, the swings will be wider. It's part of the high risk / high reward that this fund has given us over the years.
ACWX (I-fund) was down sharply and it is now testing support. It's the last TSP stock fund above its 50-day average after the C-fund closed below it yesterday. The dollar started turning up again, so there could be a headwind if that trend continues.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up slightly but it closed at the lows of the day. We are getting a ton of data and information this week that could really shake up the bond market, so buckle up.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
