04/11/13
The Dow jumped 129-points yesterday taking many investors by surprise as there wasn't much going on to warrant a big move like that. There were rumors of Fed minutes being suspiciously released early, but still, who would have seen that coming?
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.20%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.45%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Well I know one person. Intrepid Timer's buy signal a few days ago made his subscribers happy. Too bad I was too chicken to buy the recent dip. Way to go Intrepid! Great timing.
The S&P 500 climbed to new highs again, and this rally saw a nice little jump in volume.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The problem is, the longer-term overhead resistance has been broken again making the index even more extended, although the indicators are only modestly overbought right now - not extreme.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq had a huge day gaining 1.8% on the day on decent volume. Again it's extended, but new highs mean people are willing to buy up here - until they aren't, but when will that be?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Last week's TSP Talk Sentiment Survey saw only 35% of those survey being bullish while 56% said they were bearish. That was the second lowest bullish percentage of the year, and 56% was the 2nd highest bearish percentage of the year. Like the Intrepid buy signal, I passed on this excellent 0.63 to 1 bull to bear ratio buy signal and missed out on a rally that many investors like myself, are still not trusting. It was a recipe for a more gains this week and that's what happened.
OK, let's take a look at one suspicious chart. The new high list on the NYSE shows that 249 stocks made a new high during yesterday's rally. Sounds good...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
But if the NYSE index is making new highs, why are fewer stocks making new highs now than the peaks over the past month? This is a negative divergence that could possibly be a warning sign, but this market has been so resilient, I'm probably grasping at straws. I think I'll watch the Master's golf tournament today instead of the market. OK, I'll peak a few times.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The Dow jumped 129-points yesterday taking many investors by surprise as there wasn't much going on to warrant a big move like that. There were rumors of Fed minutes being suspiciously released early, but still, who would have seen that coming?
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.20%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.45%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Well I know one person. Intrepid Timer's buy signal a few days ago made his subscribers happy. Too bad I was too chicken to buy the recent dip. Way to go Intrepid! Great timing.
The S&P 500 climbed to new highs again, and this rally saw a nice little jump in volume.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The problem is, the longer-term overhead resistance has been broken again making the index even more extended, although the indicators are only modestly overbought right now - not extreme.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq had a huge day gaining 1.8% on the day on decent volume. Again it's extended, but new highs mean people are willing to buy up here - until they aren't, but when will that be?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Last week's TSP Talk Sentiment Survey saw only 35% of those survey being bullish while 56% said they were bearish. That was the second lowest bullish percentage of the year, and 56% was the 2nd highest bearish percentage of the year. Like the Intrepid buy signal, I passed on this excellent 0.63 to 1 bull to bear ratio buy signal and missed out on a rally that many investors like myself, are still not trusting. It was a recipe for a more gains this week and that's what happened.
OK, let's take a look at one suspicious chart. The new high list on the NYSE shows that 249 stocks made a new high during yesterday's rally. Sounds good...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
But if the NYSE index is making new highs, why are fewer stocks making new highs now than the peaks over the past month? This is a negative divergence that could possibly be a warning sign, but this market has been so resilient, I'm probably grasping at straws. I think I'll watch the Master's golf tournament today instead of the market. OK, I'll peak a few times.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
