Wheels' Account Talk

[Wheels]

Hope it waits until tomorrow to happen.

Yikes. No sooner do I say it and up they go.

Dave
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[mlk_man]

She's tryin' to Dave.................:blink:

 

[Wheels]

Slowly creeping up, mocking me, taunting me.

Dave
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[Wheels]

More climbing, more taunting.

Dave
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[Wheels]

If the G pays the penny tonight, that'll be a nice little bonus to my one day side step.

Dave
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[Wheels]

Of the top 7 people at the top of the tracker as of last Friday, 5 are 100% G, 1 is 67% G, and then there is me at 100% S.

Has me a little nervous!!!

Dave
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[nnuut]

You da man Wheels! How did you do that?

 

[Wheels]

I had to place my bet earlier than usual today because I won't have access later. I'm counting on continued weakness today and a rally tomorrow after the Fed HALTS.

Place your bets.

Dave
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[Wheels]

and a rally tomorrow

Well that was a quick 5K mistake. Now I am in a jam. My greedy and competitive side says, "Don't sell until the S is higher than it was when you bought". My more reasonable side says, "Now that the Fed is out of the way, we have only a slower economy with higher inflation and lower earnings ahead. Could be a lot of pain before the S is higher than it was before I bought". Unfortunately my greedy side is bigger and stronger than my reasonable side.

In any event, I am still in tomorrow like it or not so I have until tomorrow to decide.

Dave
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[tsptalk]

Today's earnings report from Cisco might help you tomorrow.

 

[Griffin]

Well that was a quick 5K mistake...... Unfortunately my greedy side is bigger and stronger than my reasonable side.

Dave,

I'm only trying to look out for your best interest , but is getting greedy mean your going to pull out before you loose any more?

Just trying to drive home the point I said before, what you did yesterday does not matter it's tommorrow that counts.

I realize the S fund is near the current bottom (I advocated the S-fund last week for this exact reason) but ask yourself...... is there anything about the attached chart that says you are going to make money the day after tomorrow?

Given the current situation, do you think that the current bottom is a reliable support level?

Best of luck

 

[Wheels]

Funny, I was thinking of your advice when I made my last post. To answer your questions, a) greedy in this situation would be staying in and hoping for enough gains to get out higher than I got in (after all, I still haven't earned my first TSPtalk coffee mug), b) to tell you the truth the attached chart doesn't tell me much since I don't really know how to read c) I am definately concerned about this level of support holding given the current fundalmentals.

This would be a good point to stop and ask Tom a question. Tom, you have been indicating for some time now that you are very bullish for the intermediate time frame. This is based on your indicators and you 3 legs theory. However, the last few weeks or months have told us that the second half of this year is going to bring us slower (maybe much slower) growth, higher inflation, lower earnings etc. In short, fundalmentals that don't really bode well for a rising stock market. Now I would love for the second half of this year to go exactly like last year's but I don't see it shaping up that way. Why haven't these fundalmentals dampened your outlook?

Dave
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[nnuut]

Hic! Follow the winners.

 

[tsptalk]

This would be a good point to stop and ask Tom a question. Tom, you have been indicating for some time now that you are very bullish for the intermediate time frame. This is based on your indicators and you 3 legs theory. However, the last few weeks or months have told us that the second half of this year is going to bring us slower (maybe much slower) growth, higher inflation, lower earnings etc. In short, fundalmentals that don't really bode well for a rising stock market. Now I would love for the second half of this year to go exactly like last year's but I don't see it shaping up that way. Why haven't these fundalmentals dampened your outlook?

Dave -
The 3 legs are psychology, valuation and monetary conditions. They told me to be cautious (for too long I know) and in early May, when everyone was thinking everything looked great, the market topped. The indicators said - trouble ahead - and we got it. Remember, the market tops out when things look their best, and it bottoms when things look their worst because the market is a forward looking indicator.

I believe most of the bad news (inflation, a slow down, etc.) has already been priced in with the recent correction. Now sentiment surveys are very bearish, stock valuations are still very underpriced compared to bond yields, and the Fed is starting to put the breaks on interest rate hikes. To me, that means all 3 of the legs are in good position for a long term rally.

It may take more time to digest the outside "noise" as the market will make short-term wiggles but in 6 to 12 months the market will ride the wave of those three legs as it always, eventually does (or at least has in the past.)

Hope that makes sense.
Tom

 

[Griffin]

It may take more time to digest the outside "noise" as the market will make short-term wiggles but in 6 to 12 months the market will ride the wave of those three legs as it always, eventually does (or at least has in the past.)

Hope that makes sense.
Tom

Tom,

I not trying to put you on the spot, and I trust your opinion on this more then mine - when you say "wiggles" - do you mean within the current channel that you showed on today's chart? (at least for the near term future). It took several months for the trouble signs to kick in leading up to May, and that last few weeks was really bizarre, I would expect the same in reverse especially with these elections ahead.

 

[Wheels]

S fund underperforming again. This last move of mine is not working out at all. Perhaps the rotation to large caps really has begun (afterall they have been calling for it for 3 years now.)

Dave
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[tsptalk]

...when you say "wiggles" - do you mean within the current channel that you showed on today's chart? (at least for the near term future).

We are seeing a pretty solid base being built in most of the indices, so barring any cataclysmic events, I'd say yes, moving to the bottom of that current channel would be my worst case scenario.

 

[Wheels]

Gee the S is underperforming. There's something different............not.

Dave
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[nnuut]

Maybe Birchtree's prediction is becoming a reality?

 

[Birchtree]

Thanks Nnuut - nothing happens over night - there will be plenty of opportunity to peel off positions in small caps at higher prices. The trick is how long do you stay when the gains return. I've been lightening my load for many months now and will continue to shift out of small caps. I'm always unfortunately in early and out early - let'er come to me.

Dennis - permabull #1