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Wheels' Account Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
Wheels said:
Well that was a quick 5K mistake. Now I am in a jam. My greedy and competitive side says, "Don't sell until the S is higher than it was when you bought". My more reasonable side says, "Now that the Fed is out of the way, we have only a slower economy with higher inflation and lower earnings ahead. Could be a lot of pain before the S is higher than it was before I bought". Unfortunately my greedy side is bigger and stronger than my reasonable side.
In any event, I am still in tomorrow like it or not so I have until tomorrow to decide.
Dave
<><
Griffin
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 50
Wheels said:
Dave,
I'm only trying to look out for your best interest
, but is getting greedy mean your going to pull out before you loose any more?Just trying to drive home the point I said before, what you did yesterday does not matter
it's tommorrow that counts.I realize the S fund is near the current bottom (I advocated the S-fund last week for this exact reason) but ask yourself...... is there anything about the attached chart that says you are going to make money the day after tomorrow?
Given the current situation, do you think that the current bottom is a reliable support level?
Best of luck
Funny, I was thinking of your advice when I made my last post. To answer your questions, a) greedy in this situation would be staying in and hoping for enough gains to get out higher than I got in (after all, I still haven't earned my first TSPtalk coffee mug), b) to tell you the truth the attached chart doesn't tell me much since I don't really know how to read c) I am definately concerned about this level of support holding given the current fundalmentals.
This would be a good point to stop and ask Tom a question. Tom, you have been indicating for some time now that you are very bullish for the intermediate time frame. This is based on your indicators and you 3 legs theory. However, the last few weeks or months have told us that the second half of this year is going to bring us slower (maybe much slower) growth, higher inflation, lower earnings etc. In short, fundalmentals that don't really bode well for a rising stock market. Now I would love for the second half of this year to go exactly like last year's but I don't see it shaping up that way. Why haven't these fundalmentals dampened your outlook?
Dave
<><
This would be a good point to stop and ask Tom a question. Tom, you have been indicating for some time now that you are very bullish for the intermediate time frame. This is based on your indicators and you 3 legs theory. However, the last few weeks or months have told us that the second half of this year is going to bring us slower (maybe much slower) growth, higher inflation, lower earnings etc. In short, fundalmentals that don't really bode well for a rising stock market. Now I would love for the second half of this year to go exactly like last year's but I don't see it shaping up that way. Why haven't these fundalmentals dampened your outlook?
Dave
<><
- Reaction score
- 1,977
Dave -Wheels said:
The 3 legs are psychology, valuation and monetary conditions. They told me to be cautious (for too long I know) and in early May, when everyone was thinking everything looked great, the market topped. The indicators said - trouble ahead - and we got it. Remember, the market tops out when things look their best, and it bottoms when things look their worst because the market is a forward looking indicator.
I believe most of the bad news (inflation, a slow down, etc.) has already been priced in with the recent correction. Now sentiment surveys are very bearish, stock valuations are still very underpriced compared to bond yields, and the Fed is starting to put the breaks on interest rate hikes. To me, that means all 3 of the legs are in good position for a long term rally.
It may take more time to digest the outside "noise" as the market will make short-term wiggles but in 6 to 12 months the market will ride the wave of those three legs as it always, eventually does (or at least has in the past.)
Hope that makes sense.
Tom
Griffin
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 50
tsptalk said:
Tom,
I not trying to put you on the spot, and I trust your opinion on this more then mine - when you say "wiggles" - do you mean within the current channel that you showed on today's chart? (at least for the near term future). It took several months for the trouble signs to kick in leading up to May, and that last few weeks was really bizarre, I would expect the same in reverse especially with these elections ahead.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Thanks Nnuut - nothing happens over night - there will be plenty of opportunity to peel off positions in small caps at higher prices. The trick is how long do you stay when the gains return. I've been lightening my load for many months now and will continue to shift out of small caps. I'm always unfortunately in early and out early - let'er come to me.
Dennis - permabull #1
Dennis - permabull #1
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