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What needs to happen right now? Do we need to send out more letters? Is there any looming meetings? I've lost track. Or, are we waiting on the Federal Register posting to comment there?
Also, I noticed the TSPshareholders donation thingy has been reset? James, did you get enough money for the trip to lobby? Thanks.
How about a summary of where we are right now.OK- well, were here. And we're still alive. But there is not a lot of ammunition in the box at the moment.
To summarize some recent data- it's like this:
They held the meeting in January, but did not release the December's board meeting minutes until last week- about three weeks later than usual. I suspect they are very cognizent of our inspection of the board meeting minutes, in part because we zapped them very well on the last set. So they were very light on hard data this time around.
They did NOT include the data on the number of interfund transfers in November (December's minutes cover November's trading activity). I suspect it was DOWN considerably- and that manifested itself in a negative trading error figure that was pretty substantial. However, I can't PROVE that the reduced trading volume led to the worse tracking errror, because they stopped posted the actual data on the volume of trades.
So in effect one of the best tools to hit them with- the actual data, has been hidden. I also suspect that when December's data comes out, it too will show higher tracking error costs due to reduced trading volume, but I predict that they won't publish the actual volume of trading in the next set of minutes either.
They met this past week, on the 19th, but only a trickle of information has flowed out since then. All the information is is that they are still on track to limit trades, perhaps in late March or sometime in April, and they say they will publish another federal register notice before they actually limit anything. Unfortunately. without more hard data, it will be hard to refute their statements with actual proof.
One thing that showed up is Greg Long's repeated un-understanding (is that a word?) of the volume of turnover. Long said there was 100% turnover, and that simply is not true. But he's comparing I fund interfund transfers ( only a half of one percent- to a one percent at a crack move one way or the other) with "porfolio turnover", which is a completely different beast.
Let me try to explain that.
Because our folks are in and out of the I fund, that last percent or so is being held as liquid capitol. IN fact, that was part of the reason Barclays last fall asked for, and got, permission to use ETF's instead of actual stock shares for some of the I fund holdings. It allows them to trade in and out, (or rather to buy or sell the ETFs) without actually having to hold the shares themselves, with the entailing three day hold period. That way Barclasy can caputre MOST of the gains or losses of the I fund shares, without actually haing to buy or sell the shares themselves. Instead, they trade the VALUE of the shares through an ETF. In such volatile market times, Barclays loses a bit of the luster because of demand flucuations. However, it works out better than the actual buying and selling of shares in more normal times.
In short- it works like this:
Only about 1% of the fund is being held out of shares to do this moving around. The other 99% remains fully invested in I fund stocks. Sop in reality there is only about a 1% "turnover" in stocks.
But Tracey Ray told him 25 billion dollars had been traded. And SHE thinks that means 25 BILLION has been bought and sold. IN reality, it was a half-billion bought and sold fifty times. Big difference, but you can't get Tracey Ray nor Greg to understand the difference.
Now, a fund like Vanguard actually DOES have turnover- and they calculate it much differently.
(more)
"Meanwhile, officials touted the benefits of the plan's lifecycle funds, which shift investments from risky to more conservative blends as participants grow older. Officials noted that even in January, a volatile month for the markets, the L funds experienced significantly lower losses than the underlying funds. The returns on the L 2040, 2030 and 2020 funds also have surpassed all equity funds besides the international fund since their inception, officials added. "
Thanks, that's the view I was looking for.
It only shows 3 MTD IFTs for you, PM, but I do see that Ayla has made 5.
Thanks, that's the view I was looking for.Check it out right here. "MTD Total IFT" column.
http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_balance_all.php
Thanks. I was trying to look on there, but got tired of clicking on each individual to check their trading history.
I'm thinking of "DCAing" out little, but I'd like to not fear getting back in.
Hello qibovin, Yes. You can see this in the tracker thanks to Ocean.
Have any fellow letter recipients actually made more than 3 transfers yet this month?
Actually, even the twice monthly DCA thing doesn't work as far as I am aware, because I'm on the bimonthly pay system and my TSP contribution only gets deposited once. In fact, the Army actually figures out ahead of time (based on my TSP percent withholding) how much will be going into the TSP, subtracts it from my pay due, cuts that in half to give me half my pay due at mid-month, then waits until the end of the month (which actually winds up being sometime during the first 1-3 days of the next month after processing time) to deposit my TSP contribution. Basically, like Uncle Sam loves to do with income tax withholding, the are taking a 0% interest, 15-day loan on my money every month. Furthermore, they inevitable wait until just after a nice 1-2% rise and/or just before a nice day (like yesterday!) to deposit it. I don't have the time or patience to crunch those numbers, but I sure don't feel like DCAing is working for me like that.FRTIB needs to read this if they think the proposed limits doesn't impact the military. First of all, our military wants to maximize their returns like everyone else does. Secondly, snail mail takes forever from overseas so they are at even more of a disadvantage than the rest of us. Thirdly, DCA over time is the strategy most recommended by financial advisors. I guess FRTIB came up with the 2 transfers per month because of 2 pay periods per month? I suppose you can DCA the weeks between pay periods to maintain your desired balance.
From reading the first letter it seems only people who did interfund transfers often received the letter.
Welcom to the mb MaStA.
You might want to start reading about the warning letters here:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5491
I don't recall ever getting such a letter...and I know my address is correct because when they went to those stupid account numbers I got that in the mail. Hmm...