WHAT WOULD YOU DO???

[Rod]

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My Wife will be getting out of the Air Force in July 2006. As of now, I manage her TSP along with mine- mimicking my moves. Since I'll be contributing to my TSP for at least another 5 years, I'm thinking that maybe I should NOTbe as aggressive with her's as I am with mine.

What do you think a good short term strategy would be for my Wife's TSP?

Should I at least have her in the C Fund???

Thanx:^

 

[tsptalk]

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I would say even a conservative allocation should be 65% to 70% stocks right now. At least until the market outlook changes after this next next legof the bull market which I believe can produce 15% - 30% gains. By year's end however, you may have torethink your strategy and lighten up some.

Just my opinion.
Tom

 

[Rod]

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tsptalk wrote:

I would say even a conservative allocation should be 65% to 70% stocks right now. At least until the market outlook changes after this next next legof the bull market which I believe can produce 15% - 30% gains. By year's end however, you may have torethink your strategy and lighten up some.

Just my opinion.
Tom

Thanx Tom.

 

[Rolo]

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I say that this is not relevant.

It is a retirement account, retirement money. That is your time horizon. Whether it is in a TSP account, IRA account, or a regular brokerage account is of no consequence. The fact that your wife is changing jobs is of no consequence.

The only things that matter are when you plan to use that money and your investing style.

 

[Rod]

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Once she is out of the military, she can no longer contribute to it. So, we plan to use the money for adoption expenses.

This is why I asked about a good short term strategy.

 

[Rolo]

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Ah, so your time horizon is July 2006 then. Check on that. You will likely have penalties. Just because you cannot contribute to it anymore does not mean that it is not subject to withdrawal restrictions; it is still a valid, transferrable 403(b)retirement account.

 

[Rod]

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Yes, July 2006. We already plan on those taxes. If we weren't going to use it for adoption expenses, we would most probably roll it over into a traditional IRA, then from there into a ROTH.

 

[Rolo]

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If it is that important to you that you are willing to take the tax penalty, then you will likely want to mitigate risk a little more than if it were a retirement account.

A starting point is this: Figure how much you will need for July 2006. Then choose the best way to meet that goal with the least amount of risk.

Obviously, this is different than Az's short-term WRX account: if he misses his goal, then he will just have to wait a little longer to buy his car. If you miss your goal...?

 

[GTO1970]

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I say the adoption will counter any capital gains paided out and be a tax shelter for lets see:i18-21 years and worth every penny spent!!!

GTO X 5

 

[Rod]

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Thanx guys!:^

 

[Rolo]

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How much, as a percent, are you away from your goal?

Say that you need $7000 and you have $5000, you are 40% from your goal. 7000 divided by 5000 = 1.4, or 40%, not 5000/7000 = ~.71, or 29%, since a 40% gain is required to turn $5000 into $7000, but only a 29% loss is required to turn $7000 into $5000.

Finally, take only the necessary risk togain 40% in two years with the TSP.

 

[Rod]

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About 60% away.

 

[Rolo]

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Rod wrote:

About 60% away.

Hmmm...do you have a "Plan B"?

30% annualised...possible...with a regular brokerage account, definitely, with TSP only...hmmm...it really depends on what the market does over the next two years.

You definitely need to ride the ups and try to minimise the downs,not miss the ups when you do that.

 

[Rod]

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I'm not too worried about it since her TSP will be used to mainly subsidize the adoption which will cost us about $15,000. We're not relying totally upon it.

If the TSP will be worth at least $8,000 in a couple years, I'll be happy. It now stands around $3,400. We should at least reach $8,000.

 

[Rolo]

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I wrote the obvious:

You definitely need to ride the ups and try to minimise the downs,not miss the ups when you do that.

So, in the end, you are still in the same boat the rest of us are with what we are trying to accomplish.

I am starting to think that if one analyses something long enough, you will get it to look like anything and everything. :dah: durrrrr...hehe

 

[tsptalk]

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Rolo wrote:

I am starting to think that if one analyses something long enough, you will get it to look like anything and everything. :dah: durrrrr...hehe

If you look at a chart and it looks bullish, then you realize you had it upside down and you turn it around and it still looks bullish, you are biased.

 

[Rolo]

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haha! Yes! Exactly!