G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Everyone is bullish (fundadvice, hirsch organization, CNBC, FOX, etc, etc). People on this board. That is not a good sign.
P/Es are over 23 and that is based on $32 oil that was just raised from $30 last month. PEs historically over 20 are considered nose bleed levels. Taken into account $53 plus oil PEs are much higher. Colgate still has a P/E of 24. I am not paying 24 PE for a freaking toothpaste company. When PEs get in to the high single digits then I will turn bullish.
Commodities prices can not be passed on to consumers. This will greatly hurt earnings moving forward
2005 stock options will be expensed on to balance sheets - which will crush earnings.
The "real" unemployment rate is 7.4 (economy.com). 400,000 people looking for a job this month dropped off the unemployment numbers last month due to they no longer are eligible for unemployment benefits. You can spin these job numbers anyway you want but 158,257 people are joining the labor force each month. The experts keep lowering the numbers month in and month out and sooner or later we will hit the numbers but if we are not creating at least 250,000 jobs each month this economy is in the crapper.
Personal earnings are not keeping up with inflation. It was up .02 this month but the average work week has done down .10. So they are basing personal earnings on a 33.6 hour work week. Work weeks of less then 40 hours at most companies mean you are not eligible for benefit plans. So that is fuzzy month increasing the earnings by .02 but lowering the work week.
The true inflation rate has passed GDP. GDP is 3.5 (based on 32 oil) and with energy and food inflation is 3.7% - NOT 1.9 the fed is telling you.
Oil at 53 plus has now passed over the the all time high in the 1970s.
Dollar is getting crushed which will hurt the import/export numbers.
Everytime oil has spiked we have had at least a 24 month recession. Just look at 73-74 and 90-91 the last two times we have spiked oil.
Bond market has it right. Yield curve is to steep. Which means inflation is high.
Next week is a goal line stance for Mr. Market...if the market continues to drop next week you will see a lot of people get out of the market.
The S&P 500 in the last 6 years has returned -21% and a lot of people are feed up with losing money.
If you want some good advice...buy REITs and Gold Funds NOW. 2005 is going to be a horrible year starting the end to late Jan 05. Dollar is going to get crushed and people will be pumping money into their houses and not the stock market.
Good luck!
Dr Bill
Everyone is bullish (fundadvice, hirsch organization, CNBC, FOX, etc, etc). People on this board. That is not a good sign.
P/Es are over 23 and that is based on $32 oil that was just raised from $30 last month. PEs historically over 20 are considered nose bleed levels. Taken into account $53 plus oil PEs are much higher. Colgate still has a P/E of 24. I am not paying 24 PE for a freaking toothpaste company. When PEs get in to the high single digits then I will turn bullish.
Commodities prices can not be passed on to consumers. This will greatly hurt earnings moving forward
2005 stock options will be expensed on to balance sheets - which will crush earnings.
The "real" unemployment rate is 7.4 (economy.com). 400,000 people looking for a job this month dropped off the unemployment numbers last month due to they no longer are eligible for unemployment benefits. You can spin these job numbers anyway you want but 158,257 people are joining the labor force each month. The experts keep lowering the numbers month in and month out and sooner or later we will hit the numbers but if we are not creating at least 250,000 jobs each month this economy is in the crapper.
Personal earnings are not keeping up with inflation. It was up .02 this month but the average work week has done down .10. So they are basing personal earnings on a 33.6 hour work week. Work weeks of less then 40 hours at most companies mean you are not eligible for benefit plans. So that is fuzzy month increasing the earnings by .02 but lowering the work week.
The true inflation rate has passed GDP. GDP is 3.5 (based on 32 oil) and with energy and food inflation is 3.7% - NOT 1.9 the fed is telling you.
Oil at 53 plus has now passed over the the all time high in the 1970s.
Dollar is getting crushed which will hurt the import/export numbers.
Everytime oil has spiked we have had at least a 24 month recession. Just look at 73-74 and 90-91 the last two times we have spiked oil.
Bond market has it right. Yield curve is to steep. Which means inflation is high.
Next week is a goal line stance for Mr. Market...if the market continues to drop next week you will see a lot of people get out of the market.
The S&P 500 in the last 6 years has returned -21% and a lot of people are feed up with losing money.
If you want some good advice...buy REITs and Gold Funds NOW. 2005 is going to be a horrible year starting the end to late Jan 05. Dollar is going to get crushed and people will be pumping money into their houses and not the stock market.
Good luck!
Dr Bill