What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

[EmoDx]

I predict .75% average over September and October 2011. QE2 Has yet to be unwound. The FED has pledged to keep yields low until 2013. Treasuries will continue to be a flight to security for the time being. Also, check out the chart I compiled.

[TD="class: xl68"]Month[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 62"]Return[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 16"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 139"]Month[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 139"]Return[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"]Sep. 2004[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]0.26[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Oct. 2004[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]0.83[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Sep. 2005[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]-1.07[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Oct. 2005[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]-0.81[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Sep. 2006[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]0.89[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Oct. 2006[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]0.67[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Sep. 2007[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]0.75[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Oct. 2007[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]0.96[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Sep. 2008[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]-1.47[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Oct. 2008[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]-2.18[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Sep. 2009[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]1.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Oct. 2009[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]0.39[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Sep. 2010[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]0.06[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Oct. 2010[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]0.31[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Avg.[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]0.07[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Avg.[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]0.02[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Avg. Positive Months[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]0.612[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Avg. Positive Months[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]0.632[/TD]

That's my 2 cents. I am 95% in F fund until we shake out September's remaining volatility.

-E

 

[Happy_Trails]

I am kinda thinking we get a repeat of August this month in bonds. Your prediction for October sounds about right. I expect a lot of volatility this month, both bonds and stocks. I don't think it will be a smooth ride in either.

 

[jpcavin]

All I know is we got screwed on FV today!

 

[EmoDx]

Does anyone know what the percentage of AGG that is owned by the F fund? Just curious. Anyways, my post is about Operation Twist. Operation Twist is going to lower our G fund returns a good bit more than they re right now. That being said, I think a lot of money will b squeezed out of short term trasuries and make it into other high grade debt that actually returns something.

I think this will make AGG look attractive, especially now that the AGG prices retreat a little with the spike in equities. If you get ahead of the FED we could see a nice monthly return in bonds. The question is when to get out. This Greek debt thing is getting a little unnerving. While the market rallied today with the news out of Europe. I think it is a set up for a huge drop only for the mega rich to get back in for the exchange of wealth.

-Emo

 

[Birchtree]

Bonds have always given me the woolies - stick with the large cap C fund and I fund for further gains. We could easily bust right up through the recent bear flag and turn it into a bear head fake.