10 Month Modified SMA Method (M-SMA)

[david.alan.williams]

After the I Funds recent losses, the M-SMA spreadsheet has us moving to the F Fund, 100%. I will post the new spreadsheet tonight after COB.

 

[david.alan.williams]

The M-SMA spreadsheet has us moving to the S Fund, 100% today. I will post the new spreadsheet tonight after COB.​

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

My spreadsheet no longer follows yours and I am not sure why...

What is the signal for tomorrow's move?

 

[david.alan.williams]

Signals a move to F Fund because the I Fund is sooo weak. Attached 1 May spreadsheet matches exactly whats on the TSP auto tracker.

Not doing so well~!

 

[david.alan.williams]

The signal was actually on 15 May, but that meant we would still be in the S-Fund on 16 May due to the 1 day TSP lag. So here is the COB 16 May spreadsheet.

 

[david.alan.williams]

Due to the I Fund in the RED, we will be staying in the F Fund for another 2 weeks or so.

Here is the 31 May Spreadsheet...

 

[david.alan.williams]

The I Fund finally gained ground to the positive side but not enough for a move.

The 10 month modified SMA still has us in the F-Fund for at least 2 more week.


Attached is the 15 June 2012 Spreadsheet.

 

[david.alan.williams]

......still in the F Fund for at least 2 more weeks.

 

[david.alan.williams]

Attached is the 16 July Spreadsheet. We will hold in the F Fund for at least 2 more weeks.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The F Fund has been absolutely on fire!! Good call!

The only question is... how low can interest rates go? I mean, would you loan someone money (who was basically bankrupt) for 10 years, and they only pay you 1.5%?? I wouldn't. This will all come to a screeching halt soon. Probably after the election.

Good luck!

 

[david.alan.williams]

Hey Mr. John!

Yeah I know. I'm really depressed, in general, as to the way our country is going. I believe if we get started in Iran, the US is in for a great depression. I believe we will see a huge upswing in the markets, consumer confidence grow, and unemployment decrease if we get a change in November.

 

[david.alan.williams]

The I Fund is still below the 10 month modified SMA so we will be staying in the F Fund for at least 2 more weeks.
Have a great week.

 

[david.alan.williams]

The 10 month modified SMA finally signals a move to the S-Fund. I will post the new spreadsheet tomorrow since we will still be in the F Fund through COB tomorrow due to the 1 day TSP lag.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

The 10 month modified SMA finally signals a move to the S-Fund. I will post the new spreadsheet tomorrow since we will still be in the F Fund through COB tomorrow due to the 1 day TSP lag.

I will list the change to S at COB 16th for the 17th as would normally happen, thanks for the update.

 

[david.alan.williams]

Here is the COB 16 August Spreadsheet attached

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Assuming that we are staying in S for another 2 weeks...

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Assuming that we are staying in S for another 2 weeks...

Ditto

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I have the calcs Long for the last 3 signals, but you just went from short to safe???

 

[david.alan.williams]

In a minute under my account talk, I will be posting what happened to me and my future plans.

If anybody wants it, attached is the 2013 spreadsheet for the 10mon_M-SMA. Feel free to do whatever with it as I won't be maintaining it anymore as will be explained my my account talk shortly. It finished the year at -4.36% and the 10 year average is 15.44% per year. 15% average per year is still not too bad but could be better.



View attachment 10mon_M-SMA 2012 Worksheet.xls

 

[Roguejim]

I'm 4 years late. I guess this system was dumped? What happened with the OP?