What Are the Bears Saying?

[tsptalk]

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I'm curious where the bears went? Are you folksseeing a change or are you still bearish? I am not knocking your opinion.I think we need to hearfrom both sides especially now that the market has rallied some, rather than only when the market is down.

 

[GTO1970]

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I hearing the bears in the distance "mmmoooowwww"

I was going bearish but I just realized is hunting season

I'm in solid, haven't been this bullish since Mar 03

Go Bulls Go

BUY the Way the bookies have Bush Winning Big!

 

[coolhand]

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I read an analyst report from Morgan Stanley last week that indicated a 40% chance of a recession next year due to oil concerns. Specifically the adverse affectit may have on smaller global economies that do not have the resilence of our market. That and the large amout of T-bills being bought by Asia, China and Japan in particular, that is currently financing our debt. They are starting to look at their own domestic issues more and appear to be more and more reluctant to continue buying dollars. In fact, the influx of foreign currency has substantially subsided. They could decide they want a higher rate of return which would, I think, send our interest rates upward. Then you also have China trying to cool off its economy for a soft landing.They seem to be doing okay so far, but if it goes the other wayit could cause an adverse economic domino effect throughout Asia. That of course, would impact us as well.

I could go on the after effects of the above. Suffice it to say it is worth keeping an eye on.

 

[Safetyguy]

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tsptalk wrote:

I'm curious where the bears went? Are you folksseeing a change or are you still bearish? I am not knocking your opinion.I think we need to hearfrom both sides especially now that the market has rallied some, rather than only when the market is down.

I think the Bears are on the sideline --waiting. They are awaiting the elections, the effect of the Osama tape, etc. I'm trying to figure out how to make this into an opportunity. There is a normal balance that usually exists -- but now the Bulls are buying the market up and the Bears ain't doing much to balance it out.

What I am saying is thatthe TSP Bears are parked in safe things like F or G, the TSP Bulls are in C, S and I. I predict that the stock funds will drop sometime inthe next few days -- time for Bears to move back in.

I was able to get most of the gains last week being in stock funds, but retreated into G on Thursday (effective Friday) for the sure penny increase and to be in something conservative over the weekend.

 

[smine]

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I was able to collect gain last week even Friday's gain. Unfortunately we were unable to make changes to TSP Friday as the site was down. So we are going out Monday with whatever we had on Friday. The news that people are sitting on sidelines waitin for election results may be misleading. We may not know the result for weeks, so make up your own mind. I'm staying in some stocks.

 

[tsptalk]

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GTO1970 wrote:

BUY the Way the bookies have Bush Winning Big!

I noticed that. On the one I looked at Bush is a 5-7 favorite, Kerry 6-5 underdog.

I also heard Pollster John Zogby say today that based on the most recent polls, his hunch and experience tellshim that Kerry will win because of "the incumbent's" (Bush) weak pre-election numbers. Zogby is a registered democrat.

Who do we trust? Bookies or pollsters? Of course bookies don't predict the outcome, they make the line based on the money coming in. Based on the odds, more money is being bet on Bush.

 

[Mike]

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I don't trust polls that much. The numbers change greatly depending on what assumptions you use in a poll - i.e. what portion of the people polled are Republicans or Democrats and how likely they are to go to the polls on election day.

I'll cite one local example from 2002: the Star Tribune commissioned a poll in the Senate race between Norm Coleman and Walter Mondale right before the election - and it had Mondale leading by about 10 points. Coleman wound up winning the race by several points. That tells me their poll heavily over-represented Democrats in the population sample and that resulted in the poll being about 15 points off - which is extremely inaccurate.

My gut feeling tells me this race will not need recounts. I think the margins of victory will be sufficient in each state to avoid that mess. Hopefully. Just remember: in the case of an electoral tie, the house of reps votes for president. Each state gets one vote. The senate would vote for vice president. If neither candidate receives 26 state votes in the house, the vice president elected by the senate would become acting president. Yeah, that civics class in high school came in handy.