Weekly Sentiment Update

Well, now that the historic September rally is behind us many traders and investors are wondering if the market can continue to move higher. There's no shortage of bull/bear arguments and looking at our TSP tracker positions it's obvious that we are in caution mode. The generally bearish sentiment that's been hanging over the market for some time is reflected in these charts. Let's take a look.




The Top 50 are evenly split between stocks and cash. That sounds moderately bullish until you look at the Top 25 in this list and notice that they are 72% in cash or bonds.




The Total Tracker shows a modest rise in cash and slight dip in stock allocation. But the percentages are very similar to the Top 50 overall.

So keep in mind that the Top 25 are decidely bearish in a generally bearish market. Are they correct? This coming week should provide the answer.

 

[crws]

You never loose money taking a profit.
The question is- when will the market do the same?

 

[EmoDx]

You know what confuses me... The Fed has been warning people that they would be visiting QE2 in the near future. Which I guess props up the market somewhat. But it also weakens the dollar. If the dollar weakens by %2 over the next two months, then wouldn't that make the I fund look really attractive?

 

[uscfanhawaii]

I am new to these posts, but have been following for some time.
I totally missed the Sept gains, but am still up 12.5 % over the last 12 months. Haven't heard about the 'Hindenberg effect' but recall that it was still projecting out to the end of Oct. I got in the I for 30% but am looking at bailing out at the first signs of trouble!

 

[2manyirons]

“The happy people next week will be those who do not pay attention to the market and simply review their monthly or quarterly statements,” Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at Standard & Poor’s, wrote in a Friday note of the S&P’s 500 Index’s 8.8% monthly gain.

 

[coolhand]

I am new to these posts, but have been following for some time.
I totally missed the Sept gains, but am still up 12.5 % over the last 12 months. Haven't heard about the 'Hindenberg effect' but recall that it was still projecting out to the end of Oct. I got in the I for 30% but am looking at bailing out at the first signs of trouble!

September's run made me forget all about the Hindenburg Omen. Some folks think it was simply a big rally in a bear market, but I think there's too much intervention by the fed to make that assumption.

 

[coolhand]

You know what confuses me... The Fed has been warning people that they would be visiting QE2 in the near future. Which I guess props up the market somewhat. But it also weakens the dollar. If the dollar weakens by %2 over the next two months, then wouldn't that make the I fund look really attractive?

It would. And given the dollars descent over the past few weeks it's entirely possible that scenario could play out.

 

[coolhand]

“The happy people next week will be those who do not pay attention to the market and simply review their monthly or quarterly statements,” Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at Standard & Poor’s, wrote in a Friday note of the S&P’s 500 Index’s 8.8% monthly gain.

That's an easy comment to make under the circumstances. Try telling that to the millions who got crushed by the market in 2007-2008.