It was an excellent week. For the S&P 500, the third week of March (week 11 of 52) closed up 2.66% this is above the .76% average week 11 returns, is the 5th best week over the past 21 years, and the 8th best over the past 66 years.
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Contrasting upcoming week 12 against the 52 weeks of the year, from 1995-2014
- We show a 35% winning ratio, which is below average, ranking in a 3-way tie for 49th
- We show -.05% average returns, which is below average, ranking 33rd
- We show 1.67% average positive returns, which is above average, ranking 23rd
- We show -.98% average negative returns, which is above average, ranking 4th
- There is a historical negative bias for week 12, but because the losses aren't too bad, it ranks 25th, of the 52 weeks of the year
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Contrasting upcoming week 12 against an up/down week 11 from 1950-2014
- We show the last 65 week 12s have an average 46% winning ratio with .06% average returns
- For the 40 years when week 11 closed up, week 12 shows a 48% winning ratio with .00% average returns
- For the 24 years when week 11 closed down, week 12 shows a 50% winning ratio with .20% average returns
- Under current conditions, week 12 has a very slight negative bias, but the average gains aren't as bad as the winning ratios
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For week 12, we have trading days 16-20
- The average 5-day winning ratio is 48%
- The cumulative 5-day average return is .01%
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For the last 11 Monday through Fridays
- Last 3 Mondays closed up (2nd best day)
- Last 3 Tuesdays closed down (3rd best day)
- Last 3 of 8 Wednesdays closed up (worst day)
- Last 7 of 11 Thursdays closed up, (best average returns)
- Last 4 of 11 Fridays closed up (2nd worst day)
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TSP Fund Price Performance over the past 20 days (only discussing the F/C/S/I funds)
- S-Fund ranks 1st with a 60% winning ratio and .10% average returns
- F-Fund ranks 2nd with a 70% winning ratio and .05% average returns
- I -Fund ranks 3rd with a 45% winning ratio and .05% average returns
- C-Fund ranks 4th with a 40% winning ratio and .01% average returns
The I-Fund leads YTD
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In case you're interested, for 2015's 1st Quarter, we are currently at 2.39% which is just above the 1.75% average returns (over the past 20 years). My expectations for week 12 are for a flat close, so if you have an extra IFT to jump out and back in, then this may be a good time to carve out an edge over the markets. Otherwise, I'll be riding out this wave until I see a valid reason to step aside
Take care…Jason
