WAR

[car28mi65]

The objective is fairly simple, no boots on the ground, pound the ground level, take them as far back as the 1950s. Not that I condone any intervention, but this as close of an opportunity as we will ever get. If the second-order effects trickle down, we may reduce the supply of weapons to Russia, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen. If so, then perhaps we'll see a major stability shift in the region in our favor. Here's the rub, if this works, then perhaps Russia will fold faster, and if this happens before the mid-terms, the Dems are in trouble.

The good news, the markets have 2-3 days to digest this before we open, I happen the think we are well positioned for a +2% day on Monday. I did take a small entry on Friday's close, and will exit on a pop.

In an Iran Conflict Scenario, Most common short-term pattern:​

• Oil ↑
• Defense stocks ↑
• Gold ↑
• Broader stock market ↓
• Airlines & travel ↓

Does war tend to have a predictable effect on I fund?

 

[nasa1974]

Iran vows revenge after the killing of its top leader and trades strikes with Israel in widening war Iran vowed revenge Sunday after the killing of its supreme leader and traded strikes with Israel as part of a widening war prompted by a surprise U.S. and Israeli bombardment. Blasts in Tehran sent a... www.yahoo.com

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3 U.S. service members have been killed and 5 are seriously wounded in Iran strikes​

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After the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Saturday, Iran retaliated with missiles and drone attacks and vowed revenge for Khamenei's death.​

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Associated Press​

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[Boghie]

Does war tend to have a predictable effect on I fund?

Yes...

But, it is too late to worry about it. It will affect all equity funds anyway.

What we should be looking for is the rate of Iranian missile/terrorist attacks. Is it growing, normalizing, or declining.

 

[Boghie]

Interview with VDH before the strikes on Iran...

My guess is that this is already largely over. Iran is a pariah state with very few allies - all of which are turds. They cannot defend themselves either. If you are going to be an international pariah you had best have a very, very good military. The reality of it is that we and Israel can just stop and restart as desired. We don't have to waste a bunch of political capital on the issue.

 

[JTH]

I exited all my short-term positions last night, with the State Of Union address now behind us, I figure this increases the odds of an IRAN-Escalation over the weekend. Remember, the Donald loves to sucker punch people, so perhaps we'll get some movement soon.

Does war tend to have a predictable effect on I fund?

Well, if we believe about 80% of petrodollar is tied to USD, a spike in Oil should correlate to a spike in USD, thus this goes against the I-Fund. But this implies a rush into USD as a safe asset where in this case it's the US directly causing the spike in Oil.

We have to consider Europe is more depended on ME oil than we are, if their 1/3rd consumption of ME export is true, then they take the brunt of the hit here. But I'm not sure TSP is fast enough to escape the drop.