Stocks were mostly lower yesterday but the losses were modest after some afternoon buying. The Dow, down triple digits at one point, ended the day down 54-points. The German market was closed on Monday and the U.S. was sort of on hold until they open to see how the Deutsche Bank drama plays out.
[TABLE="width: 89%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 180, align: center"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The early part of October is typically strong but a new month tends to bring with it new outlooks, but the September choppiness continued on the first trading day in October. After falling fast in early September following some hawkish comments from one of the Fed governors, stocks have been grinding higher since, although it has been a rocky ride. Now that the indices are nearing the summer highs where stocks have struggled, we will see if the bears have the power to deny new highs again.The September Jobs Report comes out on Friday morning and the consensus estimates are looking for a gain of about 176,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.9%. The September Jobs Report Contest is now open in the forum. Click here for more info.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) was down slightly but fought back from some early losses that saw it testing the the rising support line and 50-day EMA, and was able to close above the 20-day EMA again. Right now the 215 to 217 area are the lines in the sand in the bull / bear battle.
The DWCPF (small caps) lagged on Monday with a 0.40% loss. There was no change to the technical picture as the rising support held but overhead resistance is not far away.
The Dow Transportation Index bucked Monday's negative trend with a 0.25% gain and made a multi-month closing high but it is still testing a key resistance line.
The EFA (I-find) was down slightly as many markets were on hold waiting for the German stock market to reopen on Tuesday.
The price of oil was up again on Monday and it is now just 0.50 to 1.0 point away from creating a rising trend after the significant higher low created in September. Again, this could just be a large $40 to $50 trading range that could go on for a while, but the stock market seems OK with that. If the range breaks, then the market may get back on the oil catalyst train.
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was down yesterday. Other than some technical issues with the second lower high on this chart, bonds have remained stubbornly buoyant despite knowing that interest rates are likely rising by the end of the year. I would have through we would have seen bonds sell off in the second half of this year, but not yet. It has been 3 months since it made new highs, but bonds are still hanging in there.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
