Vegas Mith's Account Talk

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vegasmith

vegasmith

Member
Welcome to my humble thread. I figured I'd start my own and reduce how much I spam all of yours. I'm 27 years old, started TSP in 2008 and reading TSPTalk about the same time. So all those lessons you've learned about investing that you wish you could go back and tell yourself.. here's your chance. ;)

*Currently not a subscriber to a premium service.*


So a lot of news-driven action over the past few weeks. Half a dozen Middle Eastern countries protesting followed by Japan's tragedy. My March 11th ITF to safety was a bet that if this week's economic reports missed the 100 EMA would break. By the morning of 23rd it was clear it wouldn't and I hopped back in on the with 80S/20I.

I'm was very encouraged by the close today as the VIX, reflecting the markets' movement, has moved below the 20, 50 and 100 EMA. So while others have sold this week's rally, I'm thinking that's a lot of support for higher prices next week.
 
Autotracker got updated and I'm up for the week and only -0.9% for the month. After listening to the water cooler talk around the office, I've got nooo problem with where I'm at. :)
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Congrats for starting so early. I wish I had.

Good luck with your returns this year. Do you have a goal?
Click to expand...

Hmm, I'd say learning as much as I can from all those willing to share.

Maintaining a yearly +10% would be great but I'm looking at 35-40 years till my retirement. So I'm all for trial and error and a healthy amount of risk taking for now.
 
fleeting fear this year

Vega:

I actually see a very low ^VIX as a contrarian indicator (complacency). On my thread, BT has suspected that 15 is the golden number.

But ^VIX can stay low, and does so, when the market is moving up. I got fooled because it hadn't ever flip-flopped from 30 as fast as it did last time; well - I mean - as long as I've looked at it. The Nuke scenario, as it happened (and consequences still occuring, in terms of supply chains) seems far worse than the oil spill of last year (whip dee do), so the fear is simply not there....or it is fleeting....this year.

In that sense, it does seem like a good sign. That said - we are in truely uncharted technical territory as far as the length of time above the 200 EMA, even for a bull market, especially in the SPY. I just can't make sense out of it historically or going forward. There we were - below the 50 DMA - ripe for a healthy pullback to the 200, and it didn't happen; all the reasons were there and more. I just don't know what to make of it. The only thing I can think of is QE - and that's a big thing - but it will end (or will it?).

So is it Vegas Mith, or Vega's Myth?
 
Re: fleeting fear this year

amoeba said:
Vega:

I actually see a very low ^VIX as a contrarian indicator (complacency). On my thread, BT has suspected that 15 is the golden number.

But ^VIX can stay low, and does so, when the market is moving up. I got fooled because it hadn't ever flip-flopped from 30 as fast as it did last time; well - I mean - as long as I've looked at it. The Nuke scenario, as it happened (and consequences still occuring, in terms of supply chains) seems far worse than the oil spill of last year (whip dee do), so the fear is simply not there....or it is fleeting....this year.

In that sense, it does seem like a good sign. That said - we are in truely uncharted technical territory as far as the length of time above the 200 EMA, even for a bull market, especially in the SPY. I just can't make sense out of it historically or going forward. There we were - below the 50 DMA - ripe for a healthy pullback to the 200, and it didn't happen; all the reasons were there and more. I just don't know what to make of it. The only thing I can think of is QE - and that's a big thing - but it will end (or will it?).

So is it Vegas Mith, or Vega's Myth?
Click to expand...

Yeah it's just Vegas Mith.

I use the VIX as a look behind the scenes. In the past 6 months every time the VIX spiked over the 20 and 50 EMA it was a good buying opportunity. Then in 1-3 days it would drop back down under the 20/50 EMA and usually achieve a new low.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^vix;range=6m;indicator=ema%285,20,50%29+bollinger%2813,1.25%29;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

It wasn't till March that it broke well over the 20/50 then ping-ponged between those and the 100 EMA. So even though the S&P 500 was flirting with above and below the 20 EMA, one could say the VIX was forecasting more down days ahead.

I'm of the belief that if the economic news "missed" last week we would have gotten those 200 EMA prices. Oh well, it's a long year. :)
 
Ok, stupid here, what is the VIX saying? aka, what is the VIX exactly?

Not interpretation of the values, what is VIX...

sorry :(
 
No problem. Not long ago I asking same question. The VIX (based on S&P 500) is like a fear gauge of the market for the near future. The higher the VIX, the more volatility is expected in prices and vice-versa for lower VIX readings. Wikipedia has a better long definition if you're still hazy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX
 
Color me not suprised

Seems like the talk today is all about how the markets couldn't stay in the green. Even though the markets saw selling pressure late, the VIX now sits with it's back right against it's 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 day EMA support lines. That's a heck of a lot of support for calmer days and higher prices in the near future. To me it just reconfirms that this was profit taking and I'm not expecting another dip like 2 weeks ago.

Pending any unexpected geo-political news, I'm feeling confident in staying all in through the end of March Initial Jobless claims and into the April 1st Unemployment report. Surveys are predicting a 9.0% Unemployment which is up 0.1% from last month. The consumer confidence report tomorrow will probably just reaffirm what everyone knows. Consumers are spending but gas prices and geo-news are dampening the current mood.
 
Consumer confidence at a 3-month low (high gas prices = less confident). VIX bounced nicely off it's support lines (path of least resistance). Up day today making yesterday look more and more like profit taking.
 
Still holding 80S/20I atm. The S&P high in Feb was 1343 and we closed just under 1330 today. So I'm not worried about a 'sell the news' situation for Friday's Unemployment report. On the other hand I won't be surprised to see sideways action for a couple days. In fact I'm kind of hoping for it because this BIG up week might really skew the Market Sentiment.
 
Much needed sideways action today after the impressive climb over past week in a half. Glad for it because even if today is sideways the VIX is still trending down. In fact the 10 and 50 EMA are bout to cross under the 100 EMA which reflects the calmer days the market has had and foresees.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^vix;range=1m;indicator=ema%2810,50,100%29+bollinger%2813,1.25%29;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

And the EURO is maintaining its upward trend on the USD. Good news for my little 20% I fund pie slice.

The economic news and earnings has met or beat expectations all week. If tomorrow's End of month and Q1 news meets and beats it's going to be a big day. The only thing that could make me a short-term seller is if Market Sentiment surveys come in extremely Bullish.

But no complaints here. Being a buyer during the end of the "dip" has brought me back up to #10 on the tracker. It will be interesting to see if those that sat out this week hop back in. Equally interesting to see if the current leaders sense overly bullish attitudes and instead sit out next week. I look forward to Coolhand's weekly Allocation summary.
 
Well it's been 2 days of pretty quiet action. Even though stocks have moved mostly sideways, the VIX is trending down and the EUR/USD exchange is trending up. So I've had little incentive to move to the sidelines so far. In fact the rest of this week has so little economic news that the only report I'm interested to see is 'Retail Sales' on April 13. That report, as well as upcoming 'earnings', I'm

With the light economic news, those in G Fund are in perfect position to buy any short-term dip. And with nothing else for reporters talk about, a bad news dip this week could easily become oversold. Hmm.. perhaps my short-term strategy needs some adjusting.
 
March Retail Sales

Tuesday's Retail Sales report for March is expected to be +0.5% compared to Feb's +1.0%. Whether it misses, meets or beats, I have a feeling it will dictate the week's direction. I've already bought my ticket to Tuesday's show so now just to sit back and wait.
 
So much for calls that the bottom was found last week. I'm 100% G till the market calms down and finds its new bottom. Earnings were good today so might be risky waiting for stocks to drop to their 100 EMA. But the 50 day EMA clearly broke which makes it tough call all around.

The VIX didn't break it's 20 Day EMA and it has support from 50 Day EMA right behind it. Of course stocks had several days of losses last week and the VIX barely fluctuated. Like everything else it's just one piece of the big picture.
 
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